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美联储降息,中国有三重机遇,对老百姓的钱袋子有何影响?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 08:01
美联储在2025年9月宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%,开启了自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 市场普遍预期年内还将有两次降息,全年累计降息75个基点的试探性节奏已基本明确。这一调整正在重塑全球资本流动的轨迹,曾经主导全球金融周期的美 元潮汐,威力正显著衰减。 高息时代的美国凭借4%-5%的稳定收益,成为全球资本的"吸储池"。国际金融机构通过将美元存款利息作为底层资产,设计各类理财产品吸引闲散资金,再 将归集的资本投入高收益领域,形成层层叠加的金融杠杆。 这种模式在维持美国金融韧性的同时,也催生了巨大的市场泡沫。但随着降息周期开启,美元资产的收益吸引力持续下降,机构为规避后续收益缩水风险, 开始提前清算资产离场,全球流动性随之重新分配。 与以往不同的是,当前全球地缘环境复杂,资本更倾向于流向安全边际高的市场。中国凭借稳定的发展环境、低估的资产价格,成为国际资本的重要备选方 向。 更关键的是,中国"一带一路"倡议下的节点城市与产业布局,正引导外资向实物经济沉淀,这种结构性调整使得资本难以被短期美元潮汐轻易抽离,从根本 上削弱了美元周期的冲击力度。 1. 货币政策获得自主空间 美联储高息 ...
美元、美股“双杀” 外国投资者急寻外汇对冲保护
智通财经网· 2025-04-28 06:49
Core Viewpoint - The long-standing strategy of foreign investors buying US dollars and investing in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices has faced significant challenges due to the recent trade war initiated by the Trump administration, leading to substantial losses in both stock and currency investments [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 6% this year, while returns for investors using euros and yen have dropped by 14% [1] - The rapid deterioration of this trading strategy has caused anxiety among foreign investors who previously viewed the US as a safe haven for returns [1] Group 2: Currency Hedging - Many foreign investors are now eager to increase currency hedging in their US stock portfolios, with current foreign investment assets in the US stock market amounting to approximately $18 trillion, nearly one-fifth of the total market capitalization [1][5] - The overall currency hedging ratio for foreign investors in US stocks is currently at 23%, significantly lower than the nearly 50% level seen in 2020 [5] Group 3: Hedging Costs and Strategies - The cost of hedging for investors based on currencies like the Swiss franc or yen is approximately 4% annualized for three-month hedges, while for euro-based investors, it exceeds 2% [6] - The demand for options trading as a hedging method has surged, with the trading volume of euro-dollar options reaching new highs, although increased volatility has also raised hedging costs by about 15% this year [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite the current challenges, some market participants remain cautious about predicting the dollar's future movements, citing unpredictability in exchange rate fluctuations [11] - Analysts suggest that even a small outflow of international investment from the US could lead to significant market impacts, given that international investors hold approximately $28 trillion in US assets [11]