泰国商业部长：泰铢坚挺对出口商造成影响，泰铢坚挺源于美联储降息和资本流入。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储在2025年9月宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，开启了自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 市场普遍预期年内还将有两次降息，全年累计降息75个基点的试探性节奏已基本明确。这一调整正在重塑全球资本流动的轨迹，曾经主导全球金融周期的美 元潮汐，威力正显著衰减。 高息时代的美国凭借4%-5%的稳定收益，成为全球资本的"吸储池"。国际金融机构通过将美元存款利息作为底层资产，设计各类理财产品吸引闲散资金，再 将归集的资本投入高收益领域，形成层层叠加的金融杠杆。 这种模式在维持美国金融韧性的同时，也催生了巨大的市场泡沫。但随着降息周期开启，美元资产的收益吸引力持续下降，机构为规避后续收益缩水风险， 开始提前清算资产离场，全球流动性随之重新分配。 与以往不同的是，当前全球地缘环境复杂，资本更倾向于流向安全边际高的市场。中国凭借稳定的发展环境、低估的资产价格，成为国际资本的重要备选方 向。 更关键的是，中国"一带一路"倡议下的节点城市与产业布局，正引导外资向实物经济沉淀，这种结构性调整使得资本难以被短期美元潮汐轻易抽离，从根本 上削弱了美元周期的冲击力度。 1. 货币政策获得自主空间 美联储高息 ...

Market Performance - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 24.13%[1] - Despite a weakening macroeconomic backdrop in July, liquidity and risk premiums were the primary drivers of the recent market rally[2] Liquidity and Economic Outlook - Liquidity is identified as the main driver of the recent market uptrend, with expectations for continued liquidity-driven performance in the stock market[3] - Since 2020, residents have accumulated 24 trillion yuan in excess savings, which could flow into the stock market if market conditions remain favorable[4] Domestic Policy Developments - The "anti-involution" policy continues to be implemented, with a focus on improving livelihoods and consumption policies[5] - Recent policies aim to expand consumer demand while ensuring high-quality economic development, with a strong emphasis on fiscal investment in human capital[6] Overseas Policy Impact - The U.S. "America First" investment policy is accelerating geopolitical fragmentation and localization, affecting global investment flows[7] - Trade fragmentation is encouraging companies to adjust supply chains, benefiting strategic and emerging technology sectors in allied countries[8] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The current trend of deposit migration is linked to declining deposit rates and rising stock markets, which may slow down as equity market volatility increases[9] - The yield spread between 10-year government bonds and policy rates has returned to a "normal" range, potentially reducing the selling pressure on bonds[10] Investment Strategy - September is characterized as a "bullish option" period for A-shares, with limited downside risks and potential for significant upward movement driven by new capital inflows[11] - The correlation between A-share performance and the renminbi exchange rate is strong, with expectations for continued support from foreign capital allocation[12]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong market liquidity index has rebounded to positive values after turning negative last month, supported by factors such as the narrowing SOFR-HIBOR spread, decreased volatility, and increased southbound capital flow [1] - In June, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 800 million to USD 431.9 billion, while the monetary base decreased by HKD 4.7 billion to HKD 2.12 trillion [1] - Capital inflows have returned to positive territory, with net inflows into Hong Kong stocks reaching HKD 231 billion in May, and southbound net inflows increasing from HKD 83.2 billion to HKD 92.8 billion [2] Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has continued a moderate upward trend, breaking through significant levels of 24,000 and 25,000 points, driven by improved US-China relations and better-than-expected economic data from China [4] - The average daily trading volume has expanded, reaching approximately HKD 239.1 billion, an increase of 8.4% month-on-month and 136.1% year-on-year [2] Monetary Supply and Loan Data - Total deposits in May grew by 10.7% year-on-year, with M3 growth also at 10.7%, marking the fifth consecutive month above 9% [3] - Loan growth turned positive for the first time since May 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [3] Economic Indicators - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose by 0.2%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased by 3.6% [2] - The iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF recorded net inflows over the past month, although the Hang Seng Index underperformed compared to the emerging markets index, rising only 2.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Rupiah has strengthened due to capital inflows and the central bank's stabilization measures [1] Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia has implemented measures that have contributed to the stability of the Rupiah [1] - Increased capital inflows have positively impacted the currency's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that despite a recent recovery in the U.S. market, foreign investors are still "refusing to buy U.S. assets" [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos analyzed fund flows from overseas into U.S. stocks and bonds, revealing a "sharp stagnation" in purchases by foreign buyers over the past two months [1] - The report concludes that the current capital inflow into the U.S. is likely to slow down significantly, posing a challenge for the dollar, which is already facing dual deficit issues [1] Group 2: ETF and Fund Activity - Foreign ETF investors are simultaneously selling U.S. Treasuries and equities, with a notable shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish on the dollar since February [3] - The report highlights that European investors' holdings of U.S. assets have increased from approximately 5% in 2010 to 20% in 2024, while Japanese investors' holdings have doubled to 16% [3] - Saravelos has been tracking around 400 overseas-registered ETFs focused on the U.S. market, finding that investors are actively selling stocks and bonds, with a halt in new purchases of U.S. equities [3] Group 3: Dollar Forecast - Saravelos has revised down his expectations for the dollar, citing that Trump's policies are diminishing foreign investors' willingness to finance U.S. trade and budget deficits [4] - The strategist predicts that by 2027, the dollar-to-euro exchange rate will decline from approximately 1.14 to 1.30, and the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 142 to 115 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia believes that capital inflows are expected to continue [1] Group 1 - The central bank's outlook on capital inflows indicates a positive trend for the Malaysian economy [1] - The statement reflects confidence in Malaysia's economic stability and attractiveness to foreign investors [1]