吴说获悉，据 @obchakevich_ 分析，Galaxy OTC 最激烈的活动发生在 2025 年 7 月和 8 月，交易量超过 130 亿美元，这可能预示着大规模的资本流入；历史上，OTC 交易量创纪录通常预示着价格上涨，但交 易量的急剧下降可能标志着机构积累阶段的结束和市场不确定性的开始，这是在 2025 年底和 2026 年初 所看到的情况。Galaxy OTC 主要交易量集中在稳定币上，占交易量的 50%-60%，这表明并非是投机行 为，而是结构性的资金流动。此外，OTC 交易往往领先于公开市场走势大约 2-4 周。 （来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 ...

Core Market Trends - Major global stock markets are in a narrow consolidation phase as investors await the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes [1] - US stock index futures are mostly flat, with the Dow and S&P 500 up by 0.01% and the Nasdaq down by 0.02% [2] - European indices show mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX down by 0.1%, while the UK FTSE 100 is up by 0.1% [2] Metal Market Performance - The metal market shows a mixed trend, with gold, silver, platinum, copper, and nickel rising, while palladium hit a limit down [1] - Silver rebounded by nearly 4% to $75.14 per ounce, recovering from a previous drop of 9% [3][12] - Gold increased by approximately 1% to $4365.33 per ounce, following a drop of over 4% in the previous trading session [3][15] - Copper prices rose nearly 3%, supported by expectations of increased supply chain pressures [3][18] Currency and Bond Market - The onshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching its highest level since May 17, 2023, driven by capital inflows and economic recovery expectations [3][9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remains stable at 4.11% [3] Oil and Cryptocurrency - WTI crude oil prices are stable at $58 per barrel, as traders assess geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals [3][21] - Bitcoin and Ethereum saw slight increases, with Bitcoin up by 0.1% to $87319.51 and Ethereum up by 0.3% to $2943.17 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand is taking active measures to mitigate the volatility of the Thai baht, which has surged due to increased gold trading activity [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Thai baht has appreciated by 10.3% against the US dollar this year, currently trading around the 31 level, marking its highest point in over four years [1] - The strengthening of the baht is primarily driven by significant capital flows from gold trading, where traders sell gold in overseas markets for US dollars and then convert those dollars into baht [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - A weaker US dollar, capital inflows, and Thailand's better-than-expected current account surplus have also contributed to the baht's rise [1] - The strong baht exacerbates existing economic challenges in Thailand, including uncertainties related to US tariffs and high household debt levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the Thai Baht is negatively impacting exporters, attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and capital inflows [1] Group 1 - The Thai Commerce Minister highlighted that a strong Baht is affecting the competitiveness of exporters [1] - The appreciation of the Baht is linked to the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Increased capital inflows into Thailand are contributing to the Baht's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% in September 2025 marks the first rate cut since December 2024, with expectations of two more cuts within the year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction, reshaping global capital flows and diminishing the influence of the dollar tide [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Capital Flow - The high-interest era in the U.S. attracted global capital, creating a financial leverage model that maintained U.S. financial resilience but also led to significant market bubbles. The onset of the rate cut cycle is causing a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting institutions to liquidate assets to avoid future yield shrinkage, thus redistributing global liquidity [4][6]. - The current complex global geopolitical environment is driving capital towards markets with higher safety margins, with China emerging as a key alternative due to its stable development environment and undervalued asset prices. The "Belt and Road" initiative is guiding foreign investment into the real economy, making it harder for short-term dollar flows to withdraw easily [6][19]. Group 2: Impact on Currency and Asset Pricing - The increase in dollar supply is weakening its exchange rate, with the RMB/USD exchange rate surpassing 7.1 in September 2025 and maintaining at 7.1195 on October 3. This appreciation reduces import costs and enhances the international pricing of domestic assets, with gold prices rising over 40% this year, reflecting a reassessment of dollar credit and increased attractiveness of RMB assets [9][12]. - Foreign capital is accelerating its investment in the Chinese market, despite short-term fluctuations in the bond market. The improvement in the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to attract more foreign investment in Chinese bonds [10][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are showing upward trends, with a favorable financing environment for quality enterprises, particularly in coastal economic zones and "Belt and Road" regions, creating new wealth opportunities. However, the current monetary circulation shows a high multiplier effect, leading to cash flow challenges for businesses and individuals [12][14]. - Short-term speculative capital may disrupt local markets and inflate asset bubbles, while the real economy still faces financing disparities, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate cut pace could complicate capital flows further [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Opportunities and Recommendations - China's monetary policy needs to balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks." The focus should remain on targeted monetary easing without large-scale loosening, with 10-year government bond yields expected to fluctuate between 1.70% and 1.90% [15][17]. - Key indicators to monitor include the Fed's rate cut schedule and domestic monetary policy actions, which will directly influence market expectations. Companies should optimize debt structures and reduce reliance on short-term borrowing, while individuals should manage leverage and prioritize emergency fund reserves [17][20].

Market Performance - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 24.13%[1] - Despite a weakening macroeconomic backdrop in July, liquidity and risk premiums were the primary drivers of the recent market rally[2] Liquidity and Economic Outlook - Liquidity is identified as the main driver of the recent market uptrend, with expectations for continued liquidity-driven performance in the stock market[3] - Since 2020, residents have accumulated 24 trillion yuan in excess savings, which could flow into the stock market if market conditions remain favorable[4] Domestic Policy Developments - The "anti-involution" policy continues to be implemented, with a focus on improving livelihoods and consumption policies[5] - Recent policies aim to expand consumer demand while ensuring high-quality economic development, with a strong emphasis on fiscal investment in human capital[6] Overseas Policy Impact - The U.S. "America First" investment policy is accelerating geopolitical fragmentation and localization, affecting global investment flows[7] - Trade fragmentation is encouraging companies to adjust supply chains, benefiting strategic and emerging technology sectors in allied countries[8] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The current trend of deposit migration is linked to declining deposit rates and rising stock markets, which may slow down as equity market volatility increases[9] - The yield spread between 10-year government bonds and policy rates has returned to a "normal" range, potentially reducing the selling pressure on bonds[10] Investment Strategy - September is characterized as a "bullish option" period for A-shares, with limited downside risks and potential for significant upward movement driven by new capital inflows[11] - The correlation between A-share performance and the renminbi exchange rate is strong, with expectations for continued support from foreign capital allocation[12]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong market liquidity index has rebounded to positive values after turning negative last month, supported by factors such as the narrowing SOFR-HIBOR spread, decreased volatility, and increased southbound capital flow [1] - In June, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 800 million to USD 431.9 billion, while the monetary base decreased by HKD 4.7 billion to HKD 2.12 trillion [1] - Capital inflows have returned to positive territory, with net inflows into Hong Kong stocks reaching HKD 231 billion in May, and southbound net inflows increasing from HKD 83.2 billion to HKD 92.8 billion [2] Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has continued a moderate upward trend, breaking through significant levels of 24,000 and 25,000 points, driven by improved US-China relations and better-than-expected economic data from China [4] - The average daily trading volume has expanded, reaching approximately HKD 239.1 billion, an increase of 8.4% month-on-month and 136.1% year-on-year [2] Monetary Supply and Loan Data - Total deposits in May grew by 10.7% year-on-year, with M3 growth also at 10.7%, marking the fifth consecutive month above 9% [3] - Loan growth turned positive for the first time since May 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [3] Economic Indicators - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose by 0.2%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased by 3.6% [2] - The iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF recorded net inflows over the past month, although the Hang Seng Index underperformed compared to the emerging markets index, rising only 2.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Rupiah has strengthened due to capital inflows and the central bank's stabilization measures [1] Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia has implemented measures that have contributed to the stability of the Rupiah [1] - Increased capital inflows have positively impacted the currency's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that despite a recent recovery in the U.S. market, foreign investors are still "refusing to buy U.S. assets" [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos analyzed fund flows from overseas into U.S. stocks and bonds, revealing a "sharp stagnation" in purchases by foreign buyers over the past two months [1] - The report concludes that the current capital inflow into the U.S. is likely to slow down significantly, posing a challenge for the dollar, which is already facing dual deficit issues [1] Group 2: ETF and Fund Activity - Foreign ETF investors are simultaneously selling U.S. Treasuries and equities, with a notable shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish on the dollar since February [3] - The report highlights that European investors' holdings of U.S. assets have increased from approximately 5% in 2010 to 20% in 2024, while Japanese investors' holdings have doubled to 16% [3] - Saravelos has been tracking around 400 overseas-registered ETFs focused on the U.S. market, finding that investors are actively selling stocks and bonds, with a halt in new purchases of U.S. equities [3] Group 3: Dollar Forecast - Saravelos has revised down his expectations for the dollar, citing that Trump's policies are diminishing foreign investors' willingness to finance U.S. trade and budget deficits [4] - The strategist predicts that by 2027, the dollar-to-euro exchange rate will decline from approximately 1.14 to 1.30, and the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 142 to 115 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia believes that capital inflows are expected to continue [1] Group 1 - The central bank's outlook on capital inflows indicates a positive trend for the Malaysian economy [1] - The statement reflects confidence in Malaysia's economic stability and attractiveness to foreign investors [1]