1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report constructs an active cycle-themed fund pool, classifies cycle-themed funds into balanced cycle funds and single-track cycle funds based on historical allocations, and selects high-quality funds through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. It is recommended to pay attention to funds such as Dacheng Industry Trend, HSBC Jintrust Small and Medium Cap, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resources [1]. - The main logics include classifying and labeling cycle-themed funds according to historical allocations, quantitatively and qualitatively selecting balanced and single-track cycle funds, and conducting in-depth analyses of the selected cycle-themed funds [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cycle Industry Theme Fund Sample Pool - **Selection Criteria**: The report selects ordinary stock funds, partial equity hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds, and balanced hybrid funds from the Wind fund classification, with an average stock position of no less than 60% in the past four quarters, a fund establishment time of over two years, a fund size of no less than 200 million yuan, and a recent two-report period average position of no less than 50% in a certain major industry, with the most recent period being over 50% [13]. - **Sample Pool Results**: 127 cycle-themed funds are screened out, including 66 with a size of no less than 200 million yuan. These 66 funds cover 31 public fund managers, 44 main fund managers, and have a total scale of 8.1543 billion yuan. Among them, there is 1 fund with a size of over 500 million yuan, and 10 funds with a size of over 200 million yuan [14][15]. - **Analysis by Fund Manager and Fund Company**: Fund managers such as Han Chuang of Dacheng, Lin Yingrui of GF, Hu Xiao/Li Jing of Dongfanghong, and Yang Jinjin of Jiaoyin manage cycle-themed funds with a scale of over 500 million yuan. Dacheng Fund has the largest scale, with 7 cycle-themed funds totaling 1.4487 billion yuan, followed by GF Fund and Dongfanghong Asset Management [17]. 3.2 Cycle Industry Theme Fund Sample Pool - **Fund Classification**: Cycle-themed funds are divided into single-track cycle funds and balanced cycle funds based on whether they focus on a single cycle track. Balanced cycle funds are further divided into long-term cycle theme funds, cycle theme funds, and recent cycle style funds, and are labeled according to factors such as position flexibility, investment in Hong Kong stocks, and turnover rate [21][22]. - **Quantitative and Qualitative Selection Methods**: Quantitatively, funds with comprehensive scores in the top 35% in the past one and three years are selected based on Western Securities' active equity fund performance evaluation system. Qualitatively, factors such as fund manager performance consistency, fund returns and maximum drawdowns in different periods, fund manager investment years, background, and focus on the cycle sector are considered [25][26]. - **Selected Fund Pool**: Five balanced cycle funds and five single-track cycle funds are selected, including Dacheng Industry Trend, HSBC Jintrust Small and Medium Cap, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resources [27]. 3.3 In-depth Analysis of Selected Cycle Theme Funds 3.3.1 In-depth Analysis of Balanced Selected Cycle Theme Funds - **Industry Allocation**: Dacheng Industry Trend and HSBC Jintrust Small and Medium Cap mainly allocate to non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals; Boshi Growth Selection and China Europe Rongheng Balance mainly allocate to non-ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals; Harvest Cycle Selection mainly allocates to transportation and public utilities. The cycle position averages of these funds in different periods are provided, and the cycle sector proportions in 25Q2 are estimated [30][31]. - **Operation Characteristics**: The funds have high positions, with differences in Hong Kong stock allocations. They also show differences in industry concentration, individual stock concentration, number of holdings, turnover rate, and price-to-earnings ratio, with investment styles varying significantly [38][39]. 3.3.2 In-depth Analysis of Single-track Selected Cycle Theme Funds - **Industry Allocation**: Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resources mainly focuses on magnetic materials, rare earths, and gold; Chuangjin Hexin Resources Theme mainly focuses on copper, gold, aluminum, lead-zinc, and thermal coal; Huabao Resources Preferred mainly focuses on copper, thermal coal, lithium, aluminum, and civil explosive products; Invesco Great Wall Pillar Industry mainly focuses on copper, gold, lead-zinc, and aluminum; ICBC Dividend Optimized mainly focuses on gas, wind power generation, and thermal power generation. The cycle position averages of these funds in different periods are provided [48][49]. - **Operation Characteristics**: These funds show differences in industry allocation, with some focusing on non-ferrous metals and others on energy and power sectors. They also show differences in cycle sector allocation and changes in different periods [52][53].

Core Viewpoint - The market has returned to the 3700-point level, with over 50% of funds established during the last bull market now back to their initial net asset value, indicating a recovery trend in the investment landscape [2][3][4]. Fund Performance Summary - As of August 15, 2021, among 1785 funds established, 936 funds (52.44%) have their net asset values above 1, with some funds achieving values above 1.5 [5]. - Notable examples include the Invesco Great Wall Long-term Growth Fund, which reached a high of 1.18 in August 2021 and recently achieved a net value of 1.0055, and the Golden Eagle New Energy Mixed Fund, which rebounded to 1.0342 after a significant drop [4][5]. - However, approximately 30 funds established in 2021 still have net asset values below 0.5, indicating a significant performance disparity among funds [5]. Performance Disparity Analysis - Funds established at the same market peak have shown significant performance differences, with some funds like Huaxia North Exchange Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Fund achieving returns of 143.51%, while others have negative returns [7]. - The disparity is attributed to differing investment strategies, with successful funds focusing on cyclical sectors and technology, while underperforming funds were heavily invested in renewable energy sectors [7][8]. Market Dynamics and Fund Flows - The market is experiencing a "return redemption" pressure as funds approach their break-even points, particularly in sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals [10]. - Despite redemption pressures, new active equity funds are seeing a resurgence in fundraising, with July's issuance reaching around 10 billion [10][11]. - The market is transitioning from a negative cycle to a positive one, with increased inflows expected as the market's profitability improves [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market has returned to around 3700 points, with over 50% of funds established during the last bull market now recovering to their initial net asset value (NAV) [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of August 15, 2023, 936 out of 1785 funds established in 2021 have a NAV above 1, representing 52.44% of the total [3]. - Notable funds like Invesco Great Wall's Long-Term Fund and Jin Ying New Energy Fund have recently achieved NAVs of 1.0055 and 1.0342, respectively, after significant rebounds [2][3]. - Some funds, however, remain underperforming, with about 30 funds established in 2021 having NAVs below 0.5 [3]. Performance Disparity - There is a significant performance disparity among funds established at the same market peak, with some funds achieving returns as high as 143.51% while others have negative returns [4][5]. - Funds that performed well tended to focus on sectors like materials and artificial intelligence, while underperforming funds were often concentrated in renewable energy sectors [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "redemption pressure" as funds that have returned to their NAVs face potential outflows due to investor behavior influenced by previous losses [6]. - Despite this, new active equity funds are seeing a resurgence in fundraising, indicating a potential recovery in the market [6][7]. - The market is expected to enter a positive cycle of capital inflow and price appreciation, driven by strong demand for high-return assets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market has returned to around 3700 points, with over 50% of funds established during the last bull market in 2021 now recovering to their initial net asset value (NAV) [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of August 15, 2023, 936 out of 1785 funds established in 2021 have a NAV above 1, representing 52.44% of the total [3]. - Notable funds that have recovered include Invesco Great Wall's Long-Term Fund, which reached a NAV of 1.0055, and Jin Ying New Energy Mixed Fund, which reached 1.0342 [2][3]. - Some funds, such as Dachen Industry Trend and Huatai-PB Health Life, have NAVs stabilizing above 1.5 [3]. Performance Disparity - There is a significant performance disparity among funds established at the same market peak, with some funds achieving returns as high as 143.51% while others have negative returns [4]. - For instance, Dachen Industry Trend has a return of 88.72%, while other funds like Huatai-PB National Bio-Medical ETF have returns of -59.77% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "return to break-even" pressure, particularly in sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals, which were popular during the previous bull market [5]. - Despite redemption pressures, new active equity funds are seeing a resurgence in fundraising, with July's issuance reaching around 10 billion [5][6]. - The market is moving out of a negative cycle, with a potential positive feedback loop emerging as the market's performance improves [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index, which briefly surpassed 3700 points, has allowed over 50% of funds established during the last bull market to return to a net value of 1, indicating a significant recovery from previous lows [1][2][3]. Fund Performance Recovery - As of August 15, 2023, 936 out of 1785 funds established in 2021 have a net value above 1, representing 52.44% of the total [3]. - Notable funds like the Invesco Great Wall Long-term Growth Fund and the Golden Eagle New Energy Mixed Fund have recently achieved net values of 1.0055 and 1.0342, respectively, after significant fluctuations [2][3]. - Some funds, such as the Dazhong Industry Trend Fund and the Huatai-PineBridge Health Living Fund, have even stabilized above 1.5 [3]. Performance Disparity Among Funds - There is a marked performance disparity among funds established at the same market peak, with some achieving returns as high as 143.51% while others remain below 0.5 [4][5]. - The Dazhong Industry Trend Fund has a return of 88.72%, while other funds like the Huatai-PineBridge National Bio-Medical ETF have returns of -59.77% [4]. Market Dynamics and Fund Flows - The recent recovery of funds has led to redemption pressures, particularly in sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals, which were previously popular [6]. - Despite redemption pressures, new active equity funds are seeing a resurgence in fundraising, with July's issuance reaching approximately 10 billion [6]. - The market is transitioning from a negative cycle of fund flows to a more stable environment, with a decrease in net redemptions observed [6][7]. Positive Market Sentiment - The investment community is optimistic about the A-share market, noting a strong demand for high-return assets amid a backdrop of high savings growth and an "asset shortage" environment [7]. - The potential for a positive feedback loop between inflows of external capital and market performance is anticipated, suggesting that market sentiment may currently outweigh fundamental factors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market has returned to around 3700 points, with over 50% of funds established during the last bull market in 2021 now recovering to their initial net asset value (NAV) [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of August 15, 2023, 936 out of 1785 funds established in 2021 have a NAV above 1, representing 52.44% of the total [3]. - Notable funds like Invesco Great Wall's Long-term Growth Fund and Jin Ying New Energy Mixed Fund have recently achieved NAVs of 1.0055 and 1.0342, respectively, after significant rebounds [2][3]. - However, approximately 30 funds from 2021 still have NAVs below 0.5, indicating severe underperformance [3]. Performance Disparity - There is a marked performance disparity among funds established at the same market peak in 2021, with some funds achieving returns as high as 143.51% while others have negative returns exceeding -59% [4][5]. - Funds that performed well tended to focus on cyclical sectors like materials and chemicals, while poorly performing funds were heavily invested in renewable energy sectors [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "return to break-even" pressure on funds, particularly those concentrated in sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals [6]. - Despite redemption pressures, new active equity funds are seeing a resurgence in fundraising, with July's issuance reaching around 10 billion [6]. - The market is transitioning from a negative cycle to a more stable environment, with a potential for positive cash flow and market growth [7].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassed 3700 points, marking a significant recovery for funds established during the last bull market, with over 50% of these funds returning to a net value of 1 [1][2]. Fund Performance Recovery - As of August 15, 2023, 936 out of 1785 funds established in 2021 have a net value above 1, representing 52.44% of the total [3]. - Notable funds like the Invesco Great Wall Long-term Growth Fund and the Golden Eagle New Energy Mixed Fund have recently seen their net values recover to above 1, with the latter reaching 1.0342 [2][3]. - Some funds, however, remain significantly below 1, with around 30 funds established in 2021 having net values under 0.5 [3]. Performance Disparity Among Funds - There is a marked performance disparity among funds established at the same market peak, with some funds achieving returns over 100%, while others have negative returns exceeding 50% [4][5]. - For instance, the Dachen Industry Trend Fund has a return of 88.72%, while the Huatai-PB Biomedicine ETF has a return of -59.77% [4]. Market Dynamics and Fund Flows - The recovery of funds is leading to redemption pressures, particularly in sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals, which were popular during the previous bull market [6]. - Despite redemption pressures, new active equity funds are seeing a resurgence in fundraising, with July's issuance reaching approximately 10 billion [7]. - The market is transitioning from a negative cycle in fund flows to a more stable environment, with a potential for positive feedback loops as investor sentiment improves [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market has returned to around 3700 points, with over 50% of funds established during the last bull market now back to their initial net asset value, indicating a recovery trend after a prolonged downturn [2][4][5]. Fund Performance Summary - As of August 15, 2024, 936 out of 1785 funds established in 2021 have a net asset value above 1, representing 52.44% of the total [5]. - Notable funds that have recovered include the Invesco Great Wall Long-term Fund and the Golden Eagle New Energy Mixed Fund, which have recently seen their net asset values rise above 1 [4][5]. - However, approximately 30 funds from 2021 still have net asset values below 0.5, indicating significant performance disparities among funds established at the same market peak [5][6]. Performance Disparity - Funds established at the same market peak have shown significant performance differences, with some achieving returns over 100% while others have seen declines exceeding 50% [7][8]. - For instance, the Dachen Industry Trend Fund has a return of 88.72%, while the Huatai-PB Biomedicine ETF has a return of -59.77% since their inception [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "return to break-even" pressure, particularly in sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals, which were popular during the previous bull market [10]. - Despite the redemption pressure, new active equity funds are seeing a resurgence in fundraising, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [10][11]. - The overall market is expected to enter a positive cycle of capital inflow and price increase, driven by a strong demand for high-return assets amid a backdrop of high savings growth [11].