Workflow
损失厌恶
icon
Search documents
“亏30%稳如泰山,涨1%坐立难安”,曾被深套的基民如今陷入更深纠结
第一财经· 2025-08-20 15:10
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the psychological struggle of investors in the current A-share market, where many are torn between the fear of missing out on potential gains and the anxiety of losing their recently gained profits as the market rebounds [4][10]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Investors like Xiao Hu, who have been in a prolonged state of loss, are experiencing a shift in mindset as their funds begin to recover, leading to increased anxiety about whether to redeem their investments or hold on for further gains [6][10]. - The recent market recovery has seen over 1,450 active equity funds achieve returns exceeding 50%, with 166 funds doubling their performance, which has intensified the emotional turmoil among investors [7][8]. - The phenomenon of "loss aversion" is prevalent, where investors feel the pain of losses more acutely than the joy of equivalent gains, prompting them to lock in profits as soon as they break even [11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of August 19, nearly 1,300 funds have seen their net asset values rise above 1 yuan, a significant recovery from the previous year when over half of the funds were below this threshold [8]. - The market has witnessed a structural shift, with a notable increase in redemption requests as investors opt to "cash out" amidst the recovery, while new investors are more inclined to diversify their investments rather than concentrate on single products [13][14]. - Despite the redemption pressures, many equity funds are still experiencing net inflows, indicating a complex market environment where investor confidence is gradually rebuilding [14][15]. Group 3: Fund Management Strategies - Fund managers are advised to respect investor decisions regarding redemptions and focus on providing tailored product solutions that align with current market conditions and investor needs [12][15]. - The shift in focus from merely preventing redemptions to enhancing service for remaining clients is emphasized, suggesting that fund companies should offer customized investment strategies to cater to varying risk appetites and financial goals [15].
写在新高之后:盈利的持仓何时考虑止盈?又该如何止盈?
天天基金网· 2025-08-20 11:27
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of profit-taking strategies in a structurally differentiated market, emphasizing the need for investors to balance between realizing gains and maintaining exposure to potential future profits [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Essence of Profit-Taking - The fundamental logic of investing is to buy low and sell high, but many investors struggle due to market uncertainty and psychological factors like loss aversion and disposition effect [6][7]. - Current market conditions show significant structural differentiation, with some sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals performing well, while others like consumer goods and real estate lag behind [8][15]. - Historical examples from 2007 and 2015 illustrate that even in bull markets, significant corrections can occur, highlighting the importance of strategic profit-taking [10][15]. 2. Rational Strategies for Profit-Taking - **Target Profit Method**: Set a target return (e.g., +15%, +20%, +30%) for selling part or all of the position. This method is straightforward but can lead to missed opportunities if targets are set too low or too high [17][20]. - **Drawdown Profit-Taking Method**: Establish a maximum drawdown threshold (e.g., -10%, -15%) to lock in profits when the threshold is reached, balancing risk tolerance and fund type [22][24]. - **Index Valuation Percentile Method**: Use historical valuation percentiles (e.g., PE, PB ratios) to determine when to sell, with high percentiles indicating overvaluation and low percentiles indicating undervaluation [26][27]. 3. After Profit-Taking: Reinvestment Strategies - **Rebalancing**: Adjust the asset allocation back to the original target if stock exposure has increased significantly due to market gains [30]. - **Seeking New Opportunities**: Identify undervalued investment opportunities in the current market environment [31]. - **Building Cash Reserves**: Maintain some profits in cash to capitalize on better investment opportunities in the future [32]. 4. Conclusion on Profit-Taking - The essence of profit-taking is risk management rather than market prediction, with a focus on understanding personal investment logic and risk tolerance [33][35].
沪指摸高3700,“潜水基”纷纷浮出水面
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-17 23:49
上周,上证指数一度摸高至3704.77点,在重回3700点之际,上一轮牛市成立的基金也正在陆续解套。 以景顺长城成长龙头一年持有为例,该基金成立于2021年2月5日,首募规模89.4亿元,是当时的爆款基 金之一。不过,该基金的复权单位净值在2021年8月到达1.18元高点后,便开启了震荡回调,其中长达 三年都在水平面"1"以下,直到最近实现收益率回正,最新的复权单位净值为1.0055元。 如今,四年时间倏忽而过,2021年的高点近在眼前,证券时报记者梳理发现,在2021年市场高点成立的 基金,此前纷纷成为净值低于1元的"潜水基",如今已经有超五成净值回"1",实现回本,但仍然有部分 产品处于腰斩状态,业绩分化较大。 超五成基金已经回本 再比如,成立于2021年3月23日的金鹰新能源混合一度抓住了新能源风口,复权单位净值曾在2021年11 月涨至1.6499元,但由于2023年大幅下跌,此后净值长期处于1元以下,直至最近大幅反弹,最新的复 权单位净值为1.0342元。 此外,2021年9月成立的汇添富中证800ETF联接、2021年10月成立的华安均衡优选、2021年11月成立的 国富匠心精选、2021年12月 ...
回本了!市场逼近3700点,半数“高位基”已解套
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-17 22:21
市场重回3700点上下,上一轮牛市成立的基金也正在陆续解套。 再比如,成立于2021年3月23日的金鹰新能源混合一度抓住了新能源风口,复权单位净值曾在2021年11 月涨至1.6499元,但由于2023年大幅下跌,此后净值长期处于"1"以下,直至最近大幅反弹,最新的复 权单位净值1.0342元。 此外,2021年9月成立的汇添富中证800ETF联接、2021年10月成立的华安均衡优选、2021年11月成立的 国富匠心精选、2021年12月成立的博时成长回报等多只基金的复权单位净值回"1",而且创下阶段新 高。 整体来看,Wind数据显示,截至8月15日,2021年成立的1785只基金中已经有936只基金的复权单位净 值在水平面"1"的上方,占比52.44%。其中,韩创管理的大成产业趋势、张韡管理的汇添富健康生活、 武阳管理的易方达先锋成长、李博管理的信澳新能源精选等少数产品,单位净值甚至已经稳定在1.5元 以上。 不过,仍然有约30只成立于2021年的基金,目前的复权单位净值仍然低于0.5元,处于腰斩状态,其中 不乏当时的爆款基金。 业绩分化同期不同命 同样是上一轮牛市高点成立的产品,这些基金的业绩却出现了明 ...
回本了!市场逼近3700点,半数“高位基”已解套!
券商中国· 2025-08-17 15:05
市场重回3700点上下,上一轮牛市成立的基金也正在陆续解套。 2021年2月,上证综指创下了3731.69点的阶段高点,随后呈现震荡调整走势,当年9月再次挑战高点,可惜鸣金收兵于 3723.85点,之后便开启了长达三年之久的趋势性下跌,2024年最低下探至2635.09点。 如今,四年时间倏忽而过,2021年的高点近在眼前,证券时报·券商中国记者梳理发现,在2021年市场高点成立的基金 中,已经有超五成 基金 净值回"1",实现回本,但仍然有部分产品处于腰斩状态,业绩分化较大。 超五成基金已经回本 8月15日,上证指数震荡上行,收红于3696.77点,与此同时,众多成立于2021年3700点上下的基金也终于解套,实现净值 回"1"。 以景顺长城成长龙头一年持有为例,该基金成立于2021年2月5日,首募规模89.4亿元,是当时的爆款基金之一。不过,该 基金的复权单位净值在2021年8月到达1.18元高点后,便开启了震荡回调,其中长达三年都在水平面"1"以下,直到最近实 现收益率回正,最新的复权单位净值为1.0055元。 不过,仍然有约30只成立于2021年的基金,目前的复权单位净值仍然低于0.5元,处于腰斩状态 ...
3600点之上基金怎么投?最新分析研判来了
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-11 00:41
Core Insights - The article discusses the behavior of mutual fund investors who tend to redeem their investments once they break even, reflecting deeper issues in investment psychology and strategy [2][3][4] Investor Behavior and Psychology - Many investors view "breaking even" as the ultimate goal, neglecting the potential for long-term gains [3] - Behavioral finance concepts such as "loss aversion" and "anchoring effect" contribute to irrational decision-making, leading to a cycle of holding during losses and redeeming upon slight gains [3][4] - Investors often lack a clear understanding of their risk tolerance and investment objectives, resulting in poor decision-making [3][4][15] Recommendations for Investors - Professional advisors suggest that investors should focus on long-term profitability and avoid short-term reactions to market fluctuations [4][5] - Different strategies are recommended based on the investor's current account status, such as locking in profits for those who are already in the green, or considering additional investments for those still in the red [5][6][7] - Investors are encouraged to reassess their portfolios and ensure alignment with their risk tolerance and market conditions [7][8][19] Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - The current market is characterized by a mixed performance, with some funds recovering while others remain in loss [9][12][13] - The timing of entry into the market significantly impacts investment outcomes, with those entering at lower points faring better than those who invested at market peaks [10][13] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach, including diversification and adherence to long-term strategies [17][19][20] Conclusion - The article highlights the need for investors to adopt a more rational and informed approach to mutual fund investments, focusing on long-term goals rather than short-term market movements [15][20]
3600点之上,怎么投?
中国基金报· 2025-08-10 15:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the behavior of mutual fund investors as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3600 points, emphasizing the need for investors to reassess their strategies and avoid impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations [3][4]. Investor Behavior and Challenges - Many investors exhibit a "redemption upon breakeven" mentality, which reflects a fundamental misalignment in their investment understanding and behavior [5][6]. - Behavioral finance concepts such as "loss aversion" and "anchoring effect" contribute to this mindset, leading investors to make irrational decisions based on short-term price movements rather than long-term potential [6][7]. - The lack of a clear long-term investment plan often results in investors being swayed by market volatility, creating a cycle of holding during losses and redeeming upon minor gains [6][7]. Proposed Solutions - Investment advisory firms suggest focusing on "investor account profitability" and aligning investment strategies with reasonable time horizons to mitigate losses from mismatched funding [7]. - Fund companies and sales channels are encouraged to enhance investor education, improve communication, and create mechanisms that align the interests of fund managers and investors [7]. Differentiated Strategies for Various Investor Scenarios - For investors who have returned to profitability, it is recommended to "lock in profits" partially before making further decisions, especially if the fund's long-term performance is stable [9][10]. - Investors who are still at breakeven but with minimal gains should evaluate valuation levels and industry trends to make informed decisions about adjusting their positions [10]. - Investors who are still "underwater" may consider averaging down if the fund's fundamentals remain strong, while those with deteriorating fundamentals should consider cutting losses [10]. - For investors with no positions or light positions, a gradual entry strategy is advised, focusing on low-volatility products initially [11]. Portfolio Review and Adjustment - Investors are encouraged to reassess their fund holdings, ensuring alignment with their initial investment strategies and risk tolerance [12][13]. - Key factors to consider include industry diversification, equity-to-bond ratios, and the stability of fund managers' investment styles [13][14]. - Continuous evaluation of fund performance against peers is crucial, particularly in volatile market conditions [14]. Market Outlook and Investment Discipline - The current market environment is characterized as an "investment new cycle," with a recommendation for investors to maintain patience and adhere to investment discipline [25][26]. - Investors are advised to manage their funds across different time horizons and to engage in systematic investment approaches like dollar-cost averaging [30][31]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of constructing a well-diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [31].
人均60,日销10万,贵价面包杀回北上广
东京烘焙职业人· 2025-08-08 08:33
Core Viewpoint - The high-priced bakery market is rapidly expanding in first and second-tier cities, with significant price increases and a growing consumer interest in premium baked goods [2][3][4]. Market Situation - High-priced bread is quickly occupying shopping malls in first and second-tier cities [3]. - In the past year, several premium bakery brands have aggressively expanded their presence in major cities [4]. Consumer Behavior - The average spending per person at these premium bakeries is around 60 yuan, surpassing the cost of a regular meal [5]. - The scarcity marketing strategy, such as limited-time offers and purchase limits, creates a sense of urgency and drives consumer demand [6]. - Consumers often feel compelled to buy more after waiting in long lines, driven by loss aversion psychology [7]. Industry Trends - Despite a general trend towards rational consumption, the popularity of high-priced bread aligns with the "lipstick effect," where affordable luxury items thrive during economic downturns [8][9]. - The target demographic for these brands primarily includes young consumers aged 20-35, who value aesthetics and social attributes in their purchases [9]. Business Challenges - The bakery industry's business cycle is shortening, with a significant number of new openings being outpaced by closures; approximately 58% of new stores close within two years [10]. - Recent incidents, such as food poisoning linked to a popular bakery, highlight the risks associated with rapid expansion in the premium bakery sector [10].
深度了解自己|恐惧,进化遗产与现代性困境
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-08-04 23:12
Core Viewpoint - The article explores the dual nature of fear as both an enemy and an ally, emphasizing its evolutionary significance and the challenges posed by modern society [2][3]. Group 1: Biological Basis of Fear - Fear is an evolutionary survival mechanism that triggers a rapid physiological response, preparing the body for "fight or flight" [2]. - The brain's amygdala activates the sympathetic nervous system in response to real threats, leading to immediate physical reactions [2][3]. - Modern complexities lead to misinterpretation of non-physical threats, causing similar physiological responses to minor stressors [3]. Group 2: Impact of Fear on Decision-Making - Psychological studies indicate that fear significantly alters risk preferences, making individuals more sensitive to potential losses [3]. - The phenomenon of "loss aversion" suggests that fear of losing outweighs the desire for gains, which can hinder long-term decision-making [3]. - A Harvard study found that individuals who excessively fear failure early in their careers achieve 30% lower career success a decade later compared to their more daring peers [3]. Group 3: Mechanisms for Managing Fear - The prefrontal cortex can provide a balancing effect by allowing for rational reassessment of fearful stimuli [4]. - Delaying decisions for 30 seconds can enable the prefrontal cortex to intervene and regain control over decision-making processes [4]. Group 4: Therapeutic Approaches to Fear - Exposure therapy, developed from early psychological experiments, helps individuals gradually confront their fears [5]. - Modern cognitive-behavioral therapy employs a "fear ladder" technique to systematically reduce anxiety by exposing individuals to fear-inducing scenarios in a controlled manner [5]. - After 12 weeks of exposure therapy, patients show decreased amygdala activity and increased connectivity between the prefrontal cortex and amygdala, indicating improved emotional regulation [5]. Group 5: Building a Modern Safety Net - Establishing a "modern safety base" through physical health, reliable relationships, savings, and skill development can lower the brain's threat sensitivity [6]. - The article suggests that understanding and managing fear is essential for modern living, allowing individuals to coexist with fear without being dominated by it [6].
Z世代的“炒股心经”
经济观察报· 2025-07-08 11:54
Core Viewpoint - The "Z Generation" is no longer an outsider in the financial market, as they actively participate in stock trading, driven by the desire to earn their first pot of gold, while experiencing a range of emotions from joy to anxiety and disillusionment [1][5]. Group 1: Z Generation's Market Entry - In recent years, there has been a significant influx of new investors, particularly from the Z Generation, with 72% of young investors having only about a year of experience in stock trading [4][3]. - The proportion of investors under 30 has reached 30%, doubling compared to before September 2024 [4]. Group 2: Individual Experiences and Learning - Young investors like Xiao Zeng and Li Yan have faced substantial losses, with Xiao Zeng experiencing a monthly loss of 80,000 yuan and a drop in account yield from 58% to -59% [2][16]. - Li, who initially felt confident in his theoretical knowledge, faced harsh realities in the market, leading to a realization that practical experience is essential for true understanding [9][12]. Group 3: Evolving Investment Strategies - Li's investment logic evolved through three iterations, moving from traditional media to interpersonal recommendations, and finally to a cautious approach towards new media stock recommendations [10][11]. - The survey indicated that only 6% of respondents relied on social media for investment information, reflecting a shift in the Z Generation's approach to information sourcing [11]. Group 4: Emotional and Psychological Aspects - Xiao Zeng's experience illustrates the "overconfidence trap," where initial success led to reckless trading decisions, resulting in significant losses [16]. - The emotional pain of losses is noted to be 2.5 times greater than the pleasure from gains, highlighting the psychological challenges faced by young investors [16]. Group 5: Lessons Learned and Future Outlook - Li Yan learned to adapt his strategies by focusing on risk management and understanding market dynamics, achieving an annual return of around 10% [22]. - The survey revealed that 73.78% of Z Generation investors plan to increase their stock investments in the coming year, with over 72% believing that emotional regulation is the most important skill in investing [28].