最近安信基金陈鹏的一番话让我感触颇深。这位22年经验的老将说成长投资要"顺人性而为"，更要警惕"伪成长"陷 阱。这话说得太对了！作为一个在股市摸爬滚打多年的老韭菜，我深知人性的弱点在投资中是多么致命。 陈鹏的投资方法论很有意思："在景气行业中寻找优秀公司"。这与我的投资理念不谋而合。我发现大多数散户（包 括当年的我）总是被短期热点牵着鼻子走，却忽视了最本质的东西——资金流向。 说到资金流向，不得不提一个有趣的现象：牛市多暴跌。这话听起来很反常识，但却是事实。相比于熊市，牛市中 的调整往往来得更激烈。为什么？因为人天生厌恶损失，一看到调整就容易匆忙出局。 我记得2015年那波行情，上证指数从5000多点跌下来时，多少人割肉在地板上？事后看都是血泪教训。但当时那种 恐慌情绪下，谁能保持理性？ 第一种是资金真的在出清。熊市里巨量抛盘没人接，但牛市流动性好，有些资金就会选择用巨量抛盘快速切换仓 位。大多数人相信"急跌不怕"，结果就被主力轻易逃脱。 第二种更常见——主力洗盘。牛市里大家都有点赚头，小震荡吓不到人，所以主力只能用更剧烈的震荡来恐吓散 户。这种调整往往会持续好几天，直到摧毁你的意志为止。 看看这张K线图就明 ...

贸易战的争议，似乎很久没有被提起了。事实上，虽然表面上看似平静，但美中之间的较量依然在悄然进行，只不过美国的做法越来越出人意料。以特朗普 为例，在所有人关注芯片、人工智能等高科技领域时，他反而不断在各种场合上强调一个话题——希望中国多购买美国的农产品，尤其是大豆。 这个问题乍一看有些奇怪。作为世界头号强国的总统，特朗普为何不像讨论"大国博弈"那样讨论"大战略"，而是像个菜市场小商贩一样关注自家大豆的销路 呢？这颗普通的大豆背后，到底隐藏着什么玄机？ 要理解这个问题，得从大豆的历史说起。事实上，大豆原产地并非美国，而是中国。然而，到了上世纪90年代，情况发生了变化。随着中国经济的腾飞，人 民的生活水平提高，大家开始大量消费肉类和奶制品。为了养殖这些动物，所需的饲料也增加了，而大豆中的豆粕恰好是最佳的饲料蛋白来源。 因此，中国国内的大豆产量不足以满足需求，超过80%的大豆都被用来做饲料。美国看到了这个机会。美国中西部的农业州利用机械化和成熟的产业链，成 为全球最大的大豆出口国。这时候，需求与供应一拍即合，形成了从美国农田到中国饲料厂的稳定贸易路线，这条线路已经稳定运行了几十年。 但问题来了，特朗普上台后，开始推动 ...

Group 1 - The current market is in an adjustment phase with a divergence breakthrough, indicating that the recent rebound has ended and a pullback is expected [1] - Historical trends suggest that after a significant upward movement, personal accounts often experience profit withdrawal, leading to a situation where new highs are rarely achieved before further declines occur [1] - Behavioral psychology concepts such as recency effect, loss aversion, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias play a role in market movements [1] Group 2 - Group psychology will ultimately reflect in momentum indicators, with signs of top divergence indicating an increase in retreating and cashing out funds [2] - To effectively track trends, it is essential to learn to identify changes in momentum and understand the overall market psychology [2] - Leading stocks, such as those in the computing power sector, are seen as consolidating and not showing signs of fatigue, suggesting that the market trend is not over [2] Group 3 - New categories that are rising against the trend, such as energy storage and lithium batteries, should be closely monitored [3] Group 4 - The market maintains a multi-mainline structure, reducing the need for excessive concern about overall market movements, allowing individual stock strategies to diverge from broader market trends [5]

行业指数持续拉升之际，多只业绩回暖、净值爬出泥潭的基金，反而在净值解套之后迎来较大的赎回压力。 公告显示，近期包括大成丰华稳健六个月持有期混合、华宝远恒混合和海富通优势驱动混合等多只基金，因规模不达标而遭遇清盘危机。 值得注意的是，上述三只基金在这波牛市中刚刚爬出"净值泥潭"，基民就急不可耐大幅赎回。这种"亏30%能扛、赚1%发慌"的心态，深刻折射出 基民"恐高"、"害怕市场再度回落"的心态。 三基金艰难回本却遭巨额赎回 作为一只FOF基金，大成丰华稳健六个月持有期混合在成立头2年日子并不好过。天天基金网数据显示，自2022年8月至2024年2月初，该基金净值 一度回落至0.93。 但此后一年内，随着行情回暖，大成丰华稳健六个月持有期混合净值开启了反弹之路。经过长期缓慢爬坡后，该基金净值截至2025年7月下旬终于 再度突破1元。 历经三年、终于守得云开见月明的投资人，却开始了集体"逃离"。 7月30日、31日两天，因基金资产净值低于2亿元，大成丰华稳健接连发布2则"可能触发基金合同终止情形"公告，并最终于8月4日正式发布"基金 合同终止及基金财产清算"公告。 来源：基金公告 华宝远恒混合则呈现类似情况，该基金 ...

"影像能力"无疑是过去几年手机厂商发力的重点，各头部厂商也都组建了自己的影像实验室，华为的红 枫多光谱影像、OPPO的LUMO凝光影像是其中的代表。那么问题就来了，如今谁才是当下手机影像的 顶点呢？索尼旗下的Xperia系列旗舰产品应该算得上是最有力的竞争者之一。 作为"One Sony"战略下，索尼内部各个部门互通有无的产物，自从2019年MWC上亮相的Xperia 1以来， 通过Exmor T双层晶体管像素堆栈式影像传感器、BionzX处理器、Cinema Pro powered by CineAlt、 DSEE HX等，索尼影像、音乐部门的尖端技术让这款"专业影像旗舰"名副其实，因此也在摄影师、视 频创作者等群体中收获了大批的拥趸。 然而最近索尼方面却干了一件得罪用户的事情。最近索尼新款旗舰机型Xperia 1 VII的用户发现，此前 预装的"External Monitor"应用被聚合到了另一个官方应用Monitor&Control中，并且需要用户支付4.99美 元/月订阅Basic会员才能使用。 可是一旦完全取消External Monitor这个功能，Xperia系列旗舰机型的市场竞争力就会被削弱 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of "missing out" in a rising market is more painful for investors than experiencing losses in a declining market, reflecting a typical behavior of "loss aversion" [1][2] - Professional investors often face the dilemma of either buying into a rising market, fearing to chase high prices, or staying out, fearing further market gains [1][2] - The importance of maintaining a clear mindset and emotional stability during market fluctuations is emphasized as a key trait of mature investors [1][2] Group 2 - The primary reasons for professional investors missing out on market gains include a lack of confidence in market strength and insufficient research preparation on specific stocks or sectors [3][5] - The cyclical nature of the stock market leads to a common belief that any rise is merely a rebound, causing hesitation to invest until it is too late [3][5] - Successful investors often focus on in-depth fundamental analysis of individual stocks, allowing them to remain unaffected by broader market trends [4][5] Group 3 - Understanding market adjustments requires a broader perspective beyond just significant declines in major indices; adjustments can also occur through sector rotations and varying performance among stocks [6][7] - Investors should differentiate between their interest in specific stocks or sectors versus the overall index performance, as these may not always align [7][8] - Recognizing various forms of market adjustments can prevent investors from missing opportunities in specific sectors or stocks [8] Group 4 - Current market conditions are described as healthy, with a potential for adjustments, but no signs of a market turning point are evident [9] - Strategies during strong market conditions should involve maintaining high positions and making timely adjustments rather than waiting for corrections [10][11] - The concept of "missing out" is reframed as simply not participating in leading sectors, while still having opportunities in other areas of the market [10][11]

Group 1 - The core issue of "missing out" in a rising market is more painful for investors than experiencing losses in a declining market, reflecting a typical behavior of "loss aversion" [1][2] - Professional investors often face the dilemma of whether to buy into a rising market or risk missing further gains, leading to a psychological struggle [1][2] - The experience of missing out can be particularly acute for professional investors who see others profiting while they do not [2][3] Group 2 - Two main reasons for professional investors missing out include a lack of confidence in market strength and insufficient research preparation on specific stocks or sectors [3][5] - The cyclical nature of the stock market leads investors to perceive early gains as mere rebounds, causing hesitation to participate [3][4] - Successful investors often focus on in-depth fundamental analysis of individual stocks, allowing them to remain confident and avoid missing out [4][5] Group 3 - The research team operates at full capacity regardless of market conditions, emphasizing the importance of having a solid "base" of knowledge about specific sectors and companies [4][5] - A well-prepared team can mitigate the risk of missing out by maintaining confidence and readiness to act even in uncertain market conditions [5][6] Group 4 - Investors need to have a comprehensive understanding of market adjustments, which can take various forms beyond just significant declines in broad indices [6][7] - Recognizing that adjustments can occur through sector rotations and not solely through index declines is crucial for identifying investment opportunities [7][8] Group 5 - Current market conditions are described as healthy, with a potential for adjustments, but no signs of a market turning point are evident [9][10] - Investors are encouraged to maintain high positions and adjust portfolios as necessary, rather than waiting for a market correction [9][10] Group 6 - In a strong market, it is advised to actively invest in quality stocks rather than waiting for adjustments, as this can lead to missed opportunities [10][11] - The analogy of farming illustrates that missing the right planting season can lead to lost opportunities, emphasizing the importance of timely investment actions [10][11]

Group 1 - The core issue of "missing out" in a rising market is more painful for investors than experiencing losses in a declining market, highlighting the psychological impact of "loss aversion" [1][2] - Professional investors often face the dilemma of whether to buy into a rising market or risk missing further gains, leading to a sense of frustration when they miss opportunities [1][2] - The lack of confidence in market strength and insufficient research preparation are primary reasons why professional investors may miss out on gains [2][3] Group 2 - The cyclical nature of the stock market, characterized by alternating strong and weak phases, contributes to investor hesitation in participating during early stages of a market upturn [2][3] - Successful investors often focus on individual stocks through in-depth fundamental analysis, allowing them to remain unaffected by broader market fluctuations [3][4] - A well-prepared research team with a strong understanding of specific sectors or companies can mitigate the risk of missing out on market opportunities [4][5] Group 3 - Investors need to broaden their understanding of market adjustments, recognizing that adjustments can take various forms beyond just significant declines in broad indices [5][6] - The current market is described as healthy, with potential for adjustments, but no signs of a market turning point are evident, suggesting a strategy of maintaining high positions [6][7] - In a strong market, it is advised to actively seek opportunities in undervalued sectors rather than waiting for adjustments, as this can lead to missed opportunities [6][7]

Group 1 - The core issue of investors experiencing "踏空" (missing out on market gains) is more painful than losing money in a downturn, as it stems from "loss aversion" psychology [1][2] - Professional investors often face the challenge of missing out on gains due to a lack of confidence in market strength and insufficient research preparation [2][3] Group 2 - The first reason for missing out is a lack of confidence in market strength, leading investors to perceive initial market uptrends as mere rebounds rather than the start of a strong rally [3][4] - The second reason is the failure to conduct thorough research on individual stocks or sectors, resulting in a lack of a solid "base" for investment decisions [4][5] Group 3 - Investors need to have a comprehensive understanding of market adjustments, recognizing that adjustments can take various forms beyond just significant declines in broad indices [6][7] - The current market is healthy, with no signs of a turning point, suggesting that maintaining a high position and optimizing the portfolio is advisable [8] Group 4 - In a strong market, it is essential to actively invest in promising sectors rather than waiting for adjustments, as doing nothing can lead to missed opportunities [9][10] - Companies in undervalued sectors may present attractive investment opportunities, even if they are not the current market leaders [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the psychological distress experienced by investors during a bull market, particularly the feeling of missing out on potential gains while others profit significantly [1][2][3] - The phenomenon of "loss aversion" is discussed, where the pain of not earning expected profits is perceived as a loss, leading to heightened anxiety among investors [3][4] - Social comparison plays a significant role in exacerbating this anxiety, as investors often compare their performance with others, leading to feelings of inadequacy and frustration [5][6] Group 2 - The article explains "hindsight bias," where investors regret missed opportunities, believing they should have predicted market movements, which intensifies their emotional distress [7][8][9] - The "kick-the-cat effect" is introduced, illustrating how negative emotions from investment losses can spill over into personal relationships, particularly affecting family dynamics [10][11][12] - Attention resource theory suggests that excessive focus on investments can detract from family time, leading to strained relationships due to reduced quality interactions [13][14] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for setting boundaries between investment activities and family life to maintain harmony and reduce stress [18] - It encourages investors to adjust their perceptions of missed earnings, recognizing that not earning a profit does not equate to a loss, thereby alleviating anxiety [19][20] - Open communication with partners about investment-related feelings is recommended to share burdens and foster understanding, which can help mitigate emotional strain [21][22]