Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market price increased. Imported rubber market offers rose, with traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse exchanges. The restocking sentiment in January was strong, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. Domestic natural rubber spot offers also increased following the market, but downstream demand did not improve significantly, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see approach and maintaining rigid demand procurement, resulting in weak actual order transactions [9]. - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan producing area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still tapping, but due to rainfall, the raw material output on the island has further decreased, and local private processing plants have gradually shut down. It is expected that the producing area will basically stop tapping in early January and completely stop in mid - January. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand month - on - month. The arrival and warehousing of overseas mixed rubber have increased, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and the overall outbound volume is lower than expected. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises has decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market price increased this week. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers also increased. Downstream demand remained weak [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan's output is decreasing. Qingdao Port's inventory is accumulating, and downstream restocking willingness is low. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and they are in the seasonal off - season [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,400 - 16,000, and the nr2602 contract between 12,400 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.88% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 3.2% week - on - week. As of December 25, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipt was 93,230 tons, an increase of 6,070 tons from last week; the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 57,960 tons, a decrease of 1,008 tons from last week. As of December 26, the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread was 30, and the 20 - rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 [12][22][27]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 25, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The 20 - rubber basis was 433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 103 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week [29][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of December 26, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (- 1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 51 (+ 0.25) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton from last week. As of December 25, the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and Yunnan was in the non - tapping period [39][42]. - **Import Situation**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [45]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate [49]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [55]. - **Domestic Demand**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong support at the raw material end, and rubber prices continued to rise. However, the trading sentiment in the market was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand for replenishment. In the short term, the inventory at Qingdao Port is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the overall capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises will increase, but the increase may be limited [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material end of the natural rubber market had strong support, and rubber prices continued to rise. The import rubber market offers increased, but factory purchases were limited. The futures market was volatile, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted with the market. The trading sentiment was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand for replenishment [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the raw material supply pressure remains high. In Hainan, the weather is good, and tapping operations are underway, but local processing plants have low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials due to limited profit margins. The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. The demand from downstream tire enterprises is relatively moderate. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan this week, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase, but some enterprises still have production control plans this month [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.93% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 3.22% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 40, and the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of 20 - rubber was - 45 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 165,730 tons, a decrease of 12,910 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 46,368 tons, an increase of 706 tons from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 4, the price of state - owned full - latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 4, the basis of 20 - rubber was 454 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 980 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 4, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.8 (+0.25) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 52.05 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 5, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 21.4 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 4, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [47]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [51]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Production**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% from July and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - No relevant content provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated with the overall market this week, rising first and then falling, and it is recommended to focus on intraday short - term trading [2][3][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Review - RU2509 opened at 14820, reached a high of 15665, a low of 14780, and closed at 15585, with a gain of +5.23%. NR2509 opened at 12665, reached a high of 13420, a low of 12595, and closed at 13320, with a gain of +5.09%. BR2509 opened at 11710, reached a high of 12525, a low of 11685, and closed at 12415, with a gain of +6.16%. The market rose first and then fell, following the overall market, and the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia intensified the bullish sentiment. The technical chart was volatile after breaking through the upper edge of the previous shock range [3] Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned whole latex with 9% tax was 15350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from last week. The price of smoked sheets in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2330 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 12200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week [4] Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 2102 tons to 210814 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 4620 tons to 182020 tons [5] Market Structure - The basis widened compared with last week, and the futures price increased more [6] Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market rose first and then fell this week, following the overall market. The raw material prices in Thailand varied, with smoked sheets falling and cup rubber and latex rising. The operating rates of tire enterprises declined slightly, the inventory of all - steel tires remained unchanged, and the inventory of semi - steel tires increased. Affected by the rise of other commodities, natural rubber continued to rise, and the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia intensified the bullish sentiment. However, the overall market tumbled on Friday night, indicating a typical capital - driven market. From the perspective of the natural rubber's own fundamentals, the basis for a direct upward price movement is not solid, and it is recommended to focus on intraday short - term trading [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market saw macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices, leading to a continued increase in the center of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, rain has led to a shortage of raw materials and difficulties for processors in procurement, keeping raw material prices firm. In Hainan, although the weather is okay, the seasonal increase in raw materials has been slow due to previous typhoons, and the supply of latex cannot meet the production needs of processors, leading to intensified competition for raw material procurement. Last week, the total inventory at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded warehouses and an increase in general trade warehouses. Downstream factories' purchasing enthusiasm was low, and terminal procurement was mostly on - demand, with a decline in shipment volume compared to the previous period [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has shown mixed trends this week. Some enterprises have increased production to meet order demands, while others have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the resumption of production of some semi - steel tire enterprises has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market had macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. The futures market was boosted by macro factors, but downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak trading [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan has a shortage of raw materials, and Hainan's raw material increase is slow. Qingdao Port's inventory has a mixed trend, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,600 - 14,200, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed higher with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed lower with a weekly decrease of 0.33% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 20, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 20, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,840 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 32,256 tons, a decrease of 2,620 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis**: As of June 19, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of June 19, the basis of 20 - rubber was 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 164 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: - **Thailand**: As of June 19, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.3 (+1.7) Thai baht/kg. As of June 20, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 11.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50.4 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic**: As of June 19, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [42]. - **Imports**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [49]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared to 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight year - on - year increase of about 1% [58].