1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to focus on low - buying opportunities. The ru2605 contract has limited downside space and is supported at the price of 16,200. In the long - and medium - term, the price center is expected to move up slightly under the background of strong supply - demand, but the overall increase is relatively limited [3][6]. - Different market participants are given corresponding trading strategies. For example, investors can sell call options for covered strategies and buy put options to hedge against downside risks; traders and end - customers can take different actions according to their inventory and procurement situations [3]. - Key data to be monitored include domestic rubber import data, domestic natural rubber inventory changes, tapping conditions and raw material prices in major domestic and foreign producing areas, macro - policy changes, and related rubber price performances [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 RU Industry Structure - Capacity Structure: The upstream raw materials of natural rubber come from rubber trees. The main producing areas are in Southeast Asia, Africa, and in China, Yunnan and Hainan. In 2002, the main supplying countries were Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cote d'Ivoire [10]. - Demand Structure: The downstream demand is mainly for tires, accounting for about 80%, and commercial vehicle demand has a relatively large proportion [10]. 3.2 Market Review - In March, the natural rubber price oscillated. Affected by geopolitical factors, Middle East orders decreased, but the strong synthetic rubber price led to substitution demand, resulting in a basic balance of demand [13]. 3.3 Price Changes - Spread: The main RU contracts are 1, 5, and 9 contracts, with the current main contract being RU2605. The RU5 - 9 inter - monthly structure has changed to contango [18]. - Basis: The delivery products of the RU futures contract are ISS3 and SCR WF. Since RSS3 has better quality than SCR WF, there is a premium. In actual delivery, it is basically SCR TF. The full - latex basis of SCR TF and the non - standard basis of mixed rubber are the focuses. The full - latex basis has been stable this month, currently around 05 - 250 to 300 yuan/ton [18]. - Foreign Futures Prices: The report shows the price trends of Singapore rubber TSR20 (FOB) and Tokyo rubber RSS3 [45][47]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The spread between full - latex and Vietnamese 3L is worthy of attention because they can be completely substituted in downstream use [50]. 3.4 Supply - Main Producing Areas Supply: The global natural rubber production is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. According to the ANRPG report in January 2026, global natural rubber production increased by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons in January, and consumption increased by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons. In 2026, global production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons [54]. - China's Import Situation: In February 2026, China's natural rubber import volume was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February was 1.1065 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36% [60]. - Specific Producing Areas: In February 2026, Thailand's natural rubber exports to the world were 415,000 tons, and exports to China were 268,600 tons. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in February were 76,200 tons, and imports were 115,900 tons. Hainan has not started tapping, while in Yunnan, the weather is generally good, with fresh glue gradually increasing in output, and the glue purchase price is between 14.3 - 14.8 yuan/kg [74][76][79]. 3.5 Demand - Tire Industry Start - up: At the end of the month, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will slightly decline in the next cycle [87]. - Tire Inventory: The inventory situation of tire production enterprises is important for understanding the start - up rate and terminal demand [91]. - Supporting Market: The supporting market is mainly used for the tires of newly - produced passenger and commercial vehicles. The report shows relevant data on automobile production and sales [96]. - Replacement Market: The report shows data on highway freight turnover, China's logistics industry prosperity index, and highway logistics freight rate index, which are related to the replacement demand for tires [105]. - Export Market: The report shows the export volume data of semi - steel tires, full - steel tires, and new pneumatic rubber tires [117]. 3.6 Inventory - As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% [120][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - From the data of the past five years, natural rubber prices generally rise after the Spring Festival. In 2026, the pre - festival domestic natural rubber Thai mixed futures weekly average price was 15,308 yuan/ton, and the post - festival average price is expected to be 15,550 yuan/ton, with an expected increase of 1.58%. The main reasons are that the global natural rubber producing areas enter the low - supply stage, raw material prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall, the supply and cost sides boost the natural rubber market, and downstream tire and rubber product enterprises gradually resume work and production, with an expected recovery in demand. However, recent macro - sentiment has a strong impact, and the linkage of the commodity market is increasing, so continuous attention should be paid to the disturbance of the commodity atmosphere on rubber prices [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The rubber main contract's daily closing price was 16,315 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 165,470 lots, a decrease of 15,208 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 140,235 lots, a decrease of 12,467 lots; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112,570 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 276 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 35 to - 165; the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased by 105 to - 995; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 increased by 25 to 120; among the outer - market quotes, RSS3 increased by 10 to 2,260 US dollars/ton, while STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 15, 15, and 25 US dollars/ton respectively; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber decreased by 200 to 12,850 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 to 12,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 5 - 10 US dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1] 3.3 Industry News - In January 2026, the average price of Chinese natural rubber Thai mixed was 15,033 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.42%; the average price of full - latex was 15,767 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.07%; the average price of natural latex was 11,717 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.13%. During the Spring Festival, the prices of various rubber types in the domestic natural rubber market basically remained stable with fluctuations. After the festival, the supply contraction provides support for rubber prices, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises and the overall trend of bulk commodities may determine the direction of natural rubber prices [3]

Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production to the low - production period, with the total supply showing a decline. Recently, both bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have seen inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased compared to the previous period. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream tire enterprises' production capacity utilization has declined, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,800 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,200 - 13,700 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 240 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,445 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 215 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber's May - September contracts is 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between 20 - number rubber's March - April contracts is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 162,081 lots, an increase of 10,137 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 49,041 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,324 lots, a decrease of 1,689 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,513 lots, an increase of 612 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 112,570 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 50,803 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L rubber in the Shanghai market is 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,965 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,955 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,648 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai smoked sheet rubber is 62.69 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.62 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai rubber sheet is 58.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.25 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai rubber latex is 60.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 19.93 tons, an increase of 3.05 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 tons, an increase of 9.41 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel radial tires is 60.7%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel radial tires is 72.76%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel radial tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 47.97 days, an increase of 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel radial tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.24 days, a decrease of 3.54 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel radial tires is 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel radial tires is 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.46%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 18%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.57%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.56%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% [2]. - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55% [2]. - As of February 4, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel radial tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel radial tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main - producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production to the low - production period, with the total supply shrinking. Recently, both the bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have shown inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for basic needs, and the warehouse outbound volume continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined last week, and it is expected to further decrease in the short term. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,500, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,870 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,245 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,095 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai rubber main contract are 150,270 hands, up 4,240 hands; the positions of the 20 - number rubber main contract are 48,669 hands, down 1,481 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 36,562 hands, down 423 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 8,807 hands, up 387 hands. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 112,570 tons, up 500 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 51,004 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The Shanghai rubber basis is - 80 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 980 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,497 yuan/ton, down 131 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 447 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 61.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.86 Thai baht/kg, up 0.14 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 59.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.53%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.86%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.56%, up 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.55%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, up 15,100 tons month - on - month, an increase of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points month - on - month and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points month - on - month and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw increased tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with rubber prices showing wide - range fluctuations. The trading atmosphere was generally subdued, and actual transactions were light [9]. - Currently, the domestic main production areas of natural rubber are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season, with total supply shrinking. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has been increasing, and the demand from downstream tire companies has weakened. The short - term capacity utilization rate of tire companies may decline further [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15850 - 16600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12850 - 13500 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - to - Week Summary** - Market Review: The natural rubber market had wide - range fluctuations. Import traders mainly focused on position rotation and replacement, with a small amount of arbitrage position increase. Factory purchasing was lackluster. Domestic spot prices adjusted with the market, and downstream purchasing willingness was weak, mainly for刚需 replenishment [9]. - Market Outlook: Supply is shrinking as domestic production areas are in the off - season and overseas is transitioning. Qingdao Port's inventory is increasing due to pre - holiday concentrated arrivals and weak downstream purchasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are declining, and more companies will enter the Spring Festival holiday soon [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15850 - 16600, and the nr2604 contract between 12850 - 13500 in the short term [9]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market** - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.71% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price closed down 1.73% week - on - week [12]. - Position Analysis: No detailed analysis results are provided in the text, only the topics of position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber are mentioned [15][17]. - Inter - period Spread: As of February 6, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 105, and the spread between 20 - rubber 3 - 4 was - 45 [24]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of February 5, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 111,570 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,399 tons, a decrease of 3,226 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of February 5, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of February 5, the 20 - rubber basis was 401 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton from last week [41]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 6, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 59.3 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 54 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [45]. - Domestic: The Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China are in the off - season [48]. - **Import** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [54]. - **Inventory** - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23%. Bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82% [57]. - **Downstream** - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [60]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [63]. - Domestic Demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [66]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the production - reducing period, with the total supply showing a contraction [2] - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is accumulating, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing inventory increases. The increase in total inbound volume and the significant decline in outbound volume have led to the continuation of the inventory accumulation state [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has declined this week, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 150,013 lots, a decrease of 9,904 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50,827 lots, a decrease of 544 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,712 lots, an increase of 2,379 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,112 lots, an increase of 1,527 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 111,570 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,399 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,970 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,965 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,469 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 169 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 61.19 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.58 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (films) is 57.72 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.52 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) is 58.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, an increase of 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly full - steel tire operating rate is 62.44%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire operating rate is 74.84%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.78 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 48.78 days, an increase of 0.25 days [2] - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.52%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 24.51%, a decrease of 0.84 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 24.52%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [2] - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory is 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory is 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82% [2] - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the natural rubber futures rebounded. With domestic rubber-producing areas in a state of suspension, and the northeastern part of Thailand gradually ceasing production in January while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. In the short term, the elasticity of the supply side has weakened, and the price of raw rubber remains relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all-steel tire production. After a continuous decline, the rubber price stopped falling and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16385, 13300, and 13360 respectively, with increases of 205, 165, and 115, and increases of 1.27%, 1.26%, and 0.87% respectively. The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3085, 3025, and -60 respectively, with increases of 40, 90, and 50 respectively [2] - **Volume and Position**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 245413, 43945, and 69473 respectively. The positions were 13360, 51371, and -10 respectively, with position changes of 115, 1858, and 10 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16050, 16200, and 16100 respectively, with increases of 1.26%, 1.25%, and 1.26% respectively. The current prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai were 18500, with an increase of 0.54%. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15125 and 15950 respectively, with increases of 1.10% and 0.95% respectively [2] - **Downstream Spot**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 61.19, 52.73, and 58.8 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total supply of natural rubber is shrinking as domestic main - producing areas are in the off - season and overseas areas are transitioning from the peak production to the off - season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has been increasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing inventory accumulation. The high prices of natural rubber have led to weak procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, and the出库 volume has decreased significantly month - on - month, driving the continuous inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated last week. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, slightly increasing their production schedules and supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate slightly. Due to the high prices of various raw materials, some enterprises began to arrange the "Spring Festival" holiday from late January to early February, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in the short term. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,385 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,085 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 159,917 lots, up 6,412 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 51,371 lots, up 28,021 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 41,091 lots, up 965 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 9,639 lots, down 1,244 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 111,570 tons, up 700 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 50,600 tons, down 303 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,945 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. - The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 285 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,469 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 169 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.61 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 58.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 4 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.84%, up 0.28 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.78 days, down 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 48.78 days, up 0.25 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 20.74%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.59%, up 0.22 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 25.35%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.32%, up 0.06 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), basically flat compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the cutting - off period, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the production - reducing period, with the total supply showing a contraction. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has been accumulating, and both bonded and general trade warehouses are accumulating inventory. The high prices of various raw materials have led to cost pressure, and some enterprises have arranged the "Spring Festival" holiday from the end of January to the beginning of February, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,950 - 13,350. Short - term commodity prices are greatly affected by macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,180 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,135 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,085 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 153,505 lots, down 2,489 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 23,350 lots, down 4,303 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 42,056 lots, down 1,977 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,395 lots, up 30 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 110,870 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,903 tons, down 2,016 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is not clearly presented. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,925 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L is not clearly presented. The price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,920 US dollars/ton, down 350 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 280 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 980 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,381 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 286 yuan/ton, down 341 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.4 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 59.1 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 4 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 74.84%, up 0.28 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.78 days, down 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 48.78 days, up 0.25 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.74%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.59%, up 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.27%, up 1.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.26%, up 1.58 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), basically flat compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory is 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory is 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Suggested Attention - The opening rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is bearish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the supply in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to reduced production and suspension of harvesting, with total supply shrinking. Currently, inventory is high, and the bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao have started to decline. It is expected that the reduction in arrivals in the next few months will relieve inventory pressure. However, as the holiday approaches, the tire production capacity utilization rate is gradually decreasing, so the short - term price of natural rubber is expected to run bearishly [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On February 2, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 3.73% [1] 3.2 Supply - In December 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, compound rubber, and mixed rubber) were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2] - Global natural rubber supply will gradually shift from the peak season to the off - season, and the supply pressure may gradually ease. However, there was still a concentrated arrival in China in late January. The Hainan production area in China has stopped harvesting, and the enthusiasm of factories for purchasing rubber is limited. With the reduction of global supply pressure and the raw material stockpiling of upstream factories, the raw material price is expected to remain firm, and the cost - side support for rubber is relatively strong. According to the production rules of ANRPC member countries, production should gradually decline starting from January, and production is likely to decline in the first quarter. Also, according to past rules, rubber imports in January and February are likely to decline [2] 3.3 Demand - On January 30, 2026, the production start - up rate of China's semi - steel tires was 74.84%, higher than the historical average for the same period, and the start - up rate was relatively high. The production start - up rate of China's all - steel tires was 62.44%, also higher than the historical average for the same period, with a relatively high start - up rate [3] - Recently, the prices of various raw materials have been running at high levels. Under cost pressure, some sample enterprises began to arrange the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which will lead to a decline in the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. In the tire market, the terminal demand for all - steel tires remains weak. In the short term, inventory replenishment is still cautious. Considering the expected small peak of semi - steel tire shipments before the festival, the overall enthusiasm for replenishment is still slightly better than that of all - steel tires. All - steel tires have slow shipments and high finished - product inventories, and some enterprises may moderately reduce production [3] 3.4 Inventory - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decline of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [4] 3.5 Basis - As of January 30, compared with the spot price of rubber with Yunnan as the benchmark, the basis was - 260 yuan/ton. In absolute terms, it was lower than the annual average basis and at a historical low, with room for expansion [5]