2026 年 02 月 24 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20260224 高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 橡胶趋势强度：1 注 ：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 从近 5 年来的数据来看，春节后天然橡胶价格普遍以上涨为主。2026 年来看，节前国内天然橡胶泰混 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 315 | 16. 450 | -135 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | l | 16. 485 | l | | | | 成交量(手) | 165, 470 | 180, 678 | -15, 208 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 140. 235 | 152, 702 | -12, ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16575 | 240 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13445 | 215 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 90 | -15 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3130 | 25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 162081 | 10137 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 49041 | 500 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -37324 | -1689 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8513 | 612 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 50803 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 16400 | 200 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main - producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production to the low - production period, with the total supply shrinking. Recently, both the bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have shown inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for basic needs, and the warehouse outbound volume continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined last week, and it is expected to further decrease in the short term. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,500, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,870 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,245 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,095 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai rubber main contract are 150,270 hands, up 4,240 hands; the positions of the 20 - number rubber main contract are 48,669 hands, down 1,481 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 36,562 hands, down 423 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 8,807 hands, up 387 hands. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 112,570 tons, up 500 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 51,004 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The Shanghai rubber basis is - 80 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 980 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,497 yuan/ton, down 131 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 447 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 61.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.86 Thai baht/kg, up 0.14 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 59.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.53%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.86%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.56%, up 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.55%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, up 15,100 tons month - on - month, an increase of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points month - on - month and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points month - on - month and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw increased tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with rubber prices showing wide - range fluctuations. The trading atmosphere was generally subdued, and actual transactions were light [9]. - Currently, the domestic main production areas of natural rubber are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season, with total supply shrinking. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has been increasing, and the demand from downstream tire companies has weakened. The short - term capacity utilization rate of tire companies may decline further [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15850 - 16600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12850 - 13500 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - to - Week Summary** - Market Review: The natural rubber market had wide - range fluctuations. Import traders mainly focused on position rotation and replacement, with a small amount of arbitrage position increase. Factory purchasing was lackluster. Domestic spot prices adjusted with the market, and downstream purchasing willingness was weak, mainly for刚需 replenishment [9]. - Market Outlook: Supply is shrinking as domestic production areas are in the off - season and overseas is transitioning. Qingdao Port's inventory is increasing due to pre - holiday concentrated arrivals and weak downstream purchasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are declining, and more companies will enter the Spring Festival holiday soon [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15850 - 16600, and the nr2604 contract between 12850 - 13500 in the short term [9]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market** - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.71% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price closed down 1.73% week - on - week [12]. - Position Analysis: No detailed analysis results are provided in the text, only the topics of position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber are mentioned [15][17]. - Inter - period Spread: As of February 6, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 105, and the spread between 20 - rubber 3 - 4 was - 45 [24]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of February 5, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 111,570 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,399 tons, a decrease of 3,226 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of February 5, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of February 5, the 20 - rubber basis was 401 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton from last week [41]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 6, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 59.3 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 54 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [45]. - Domestic: The Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China are in the off - season [48]. - **Import** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [54]. - **Inventory** - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23%. Bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82% [57]. - **Downstream** - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [60]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [63]. - Domestic Demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [66]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** No information provided.

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16175 | -210 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13135 | -165 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 110 | -10 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -35 | -15 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3040 | -45 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 150013 | -9904 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 50827 | -544 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -38712 | 2379 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8112 | 1527 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 111570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50399 16100 | -201 200 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16600 | 100 | | | 泰标STR2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the natural rubber futures rebounded. With domestic rubber-producing areas in a state of suspension, and the northeastern part of Thailand gradually ceasing production in January while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. In the short term, the elasticity of the supply side has weakened, and the price of raw rubber remains relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all-steel tire production. After a continuous decline, the rubber price stopped falling and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16385, 13300, and 13360 respectively, with increases of 205, 165, and 115, and increases of 1.27%, 1.26%, and 0.87% respectively. The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3085, 3025, and -60 respectively, with increases of 40, 90, and 50 respectively [2] - **Volume and Position**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 245413, 43945, and 69473 respectively. The positions were 13360, 51371, and -10 respectively, with position changes of 115, 1858, and 10 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16050, 16200, and 16100 respectively, with increases of 1.26%, 1.25%, and 1.26% respectively. The current prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai were 18500, with an increase of 0.54%. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15125 and 15950 respectively, with increases of 1.10% and 0.95% respectively [2] - **Downstream Spot**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 61.19, 52.73, and 58.8 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16385 | 205 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13300 | 165 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 120 | -10 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -20 | 20 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3085 | 0 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 159917 | 6412 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 51371 | 28021 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -41091 | 965 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9639 | -1244 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 111570 | 700 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 50600 | -303 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 16100 1945 | 200 上海市场越南3L(日 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16180 | 200 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13135 | 210 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 130 | 0 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -40 | 5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3085 | 30 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 153505 | -2489 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 23350 | -4303 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -42056 | -1977 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8395 | 30 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 110870 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50903 | -2016 | | | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 泰标STR20(日 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 天然橡胶日报：偏空运行 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 一、行情表现 2 月 2 日，天然橡胶主力合约收盘价 15980 元/吨，当日涨跌幅-3.73%。 二、供给方面 2025 年 12 月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合 胶、复合胶）进口量 80.34 万吨，环比增加 24.84%，同比增加 25.4%，2025 年 1-12 月累计进口数量 667.51 万吨，累计同比增加 17.94%。 全球天然橡胶供应将逐步由旺季转为淡季，后期供应压力或逐步减弱，但国 内 1 月下旬仍集中到港，国内海南产区停割，工厂收胶抢购热度有限，后期全球 供应压力减缓，叠加上游工厂的原料备库，预计原料价格将延续坚挺格局，橡胶 成本端支撑偏强。按照 ANRPC 天然橡胶生产国联合会成员产量规律，1 月份开始 产量应该会逐步下降，整个一季度产量大概率会下滑。且按照往年规律，1、2 月份的橡胶进口量大概率也会下滑。 三、需求方面 2026 年 1 月 30 日我国半钢胎开工率为 74.84%，高于历年同期均值，开工率 偏高。2026 年 1 月 30 日我国全钢胎开工率为 62.4 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 16230 70 | -85 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -25 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 13085 -40 | -10 -10 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3145 | -75 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 181216 | -8919 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 54206 | -5672 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -43481 | 3350 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9024 | -339 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 109870 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 55339 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 15950 195 ...