天然橡胶产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15760 -85 | -125 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 5 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 12615 -30 | -175 -10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3145 | 50 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 137392 | -1722 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 51988 | -6908 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -33175 | -876 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9834 | -1489 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 177270 | -20 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 45662 14900 | 1310 -50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15050 | -50 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of August 12, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened [4]. - In the short - term, RU is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to factors such as typhoons affecting the Yunnan main production area, tight raw material supply, rising glue prices, and a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation as the Vietnam production area is affected by heavy rainfall, the Thai cup - lump price rises, dark - colored rubber inventory decreases slightly, tire开工率 remains stable, but overseas demand is expected to decline, and domestic demand awaits the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. - In the long - term, both RU and NR are considered neutral - bearish [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Supply - The Vietnam production area is disturbed by heavy rainfall, and the overseas export volume is lower than the annual average [5]. - As of August 13, the Thai glue price remained stable at 54 Thai baht/kg, and the Thai cup - lump price was 49.3 Thai baht/kg, up 1.5 Thai baht/kg from the previous week [18][17]. - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions are normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, the overseas main production areas will continue to increase production, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons, with different growth rates in different countries [36]. - The export volume of overseas main production areas is lower than the average level of previous years [38]. Domestic Supply - Typhoon "Yangliu" is moving westward and strengthening, and the Yunnan production area in China continues to be affected by rainfall [53]. - As of August 12, the Yunnan glue price was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Yunnan rubber block price was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 13, the Hainan glue price for concentrated latex factories was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Hainan glue price for whole - latex factories was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, down 11,900 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline [67]. Tire - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 61.00%, down 0.08% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese all - steel tire enterprises was 10.51 million pieces, down 250,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63% [81][79]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, down 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66% [89]. Price and Spread - As of August 12, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai state - owned whole - latex price was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [97]. - As of August 12, the RU - NR spread was 3,195 yuan/ton, and it is expected to continue to widen [109]. - As of August 12, the Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,260 yuan/ton, down 1,015 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 288.55 yuan/ton, down 112.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 360.1 yuan/ton, down 54.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [124]. - As of August 12, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [134].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has shown a slight accumulation trend recently, with the bonded area maintaining de - stocking and the general trade warehouse showing inventory accumulation. Overseas goods arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remain relatively low, but the overall outbound volume is less than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude. In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was less than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term overhaul plans from the end of July to early August. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 15,010 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 12,670 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai Rubber was - 785 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 2,340 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 10,456 lots to 108,879 lots, and that of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber decreased by 3,308 lots to 51,979 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber was - 27,577, an increase of 848; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 10,611, an increase of 732. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 100 tons to 181,920 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 1,209 tons to 38,808 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was - 365 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,971 yuan/ton, down 384 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 301 yuan/ton, down 244 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.11 Thai baht/kg, down 0.44 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 50 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.61%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.59%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 39%, up 1.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 38.99%, up 1.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 27th to August 2nd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on rubber tapping. As of July 27th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade areas in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points. As of July 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, heavy rainfall restricts glue output, and with strong competition from latex factories, raw material prices remain firm. In Hainan, rainfall disrupts local areas, limiting the increase in raw material supply. Local factories generally increase prices for raw material procurement. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory growth. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage have increased, but downstream tire companies are mainly replenishing stocks in moderation and observing, which suppresses the port's shipping rate, resulting in continued inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire companies varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies slightly dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. This week, the production schedules of maintenance companies will return to normal levels, and there is still room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,500 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,360 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,330 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton). - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 885 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 5 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton). - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,035 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 3,400 lots to 148,593 lots, and the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,938 lots to 22,585 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 26,556 lots (down 8,011 lots), and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 5,948 lots (up 83 lots). - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 40 tons to 188,650 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber was 37,195 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton). - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 60 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,437 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 112 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton). [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.37 Thai baht/kg (up 0.14 Thai baht/kg), and the market reference price of rubber sheets was 61.39 Thai baht/kg (down 0.61 Thai baht/kg). - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), and the market reference price of cup lump was 47.8 Thai baht/kg (up 0.25 Thai baht/kg). - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton (down 22 US dollars/ton), and the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3.86 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 14.82 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 22.23 million tons (down 2.64 million tons). - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56% (up 0.81 percentage points), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92% (up 2.51 percentage points). [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.67 days (up 0.22 days), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days (down 0.72 days). - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces (up 800,000 pieces), and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces (up 1.08 million pieces). [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.64% (up 0.01 percentage points), and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.02% (down 0.18 percentage points). - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.35% (down 0.07 percentage points), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.34% (down 0.1 percentage points). [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. - As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. - As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises this week. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. [2]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-07-09 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 产能利用率形成一定拉动。ru2509合约短线预计在13800-14200区间波动，nr2509合约短线预计在11900-1 免责声明 2300区间波动。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 天检修安排，产能利用率小幅走低。本周企业检修逐步结束，将进入生产恢复阶段，进而对轮胎企业整体 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 14045 -875 | 60 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0 20号胶8-9价差(日, ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-07-08 合约短线预计在11900-12200区间波动。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13985 -875 | 15 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0 20号胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) | 12070 -10 | 30 -20 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1915 | -15 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 152867 | -793 ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13970 -875 | -35 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10 20号胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) | 12040 10 | -55 0 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1930 | 20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 153660 | 827 | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 32672 | -1047 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -21393 | 2510 | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -4423 | 1688 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 188820 | -30 | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 32760 | 3024 | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 14000 1720 | -50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) 0 马标SMR20(日,美元/吨 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 区间波动，nr2508合约短线预计在12000-12500区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 14015 -865 | -110 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5 20号胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) | 12125 15 | -150 -20 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1890 | 40 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 155114 | -1571 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 36726 | -2219 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -24393 | -8086 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -6003 | 14 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 188880 | -270 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-19 约短线预计在13600-14200区间波动，nr2508合约短线预计在11800-12450区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14030 | 20 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12280 | -50 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -845 | 15 20号胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 45 | -5 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 70 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 153314 | -2926 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 20539 | -2128 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -18207 | -1003 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -6004 | -142 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 192950 | -170 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 32659 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short - term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,350 in the short - term [2][3] - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, rainfall affects the supply of latex, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and rubber tapping and raw material output are gradually recovering. Due to concerns about typhoon weather in the next few days, some processing plants are more eager to grab latex [2] - Last week, the bonded area at Qingdao Port increased in inventory, while the general trade warehouses continued to reduce inventory. The arrival of overseas goods continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in the total inbound volume of spot goods in Qingdao. Tire companies mostly made low - price purchases according to their rigid needs, and the improved purchasing sentiment led to the total outbound volume in Qingdao being greater than the inbound volume [2] - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. As the enterprises under maintenance gradually restart, the device output will gradually return to normal. However, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average, and the inventory reduction rhythm of finished products is slow. To control inventory pressure, some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in overall capacity utilization [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 13,805 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 885 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 25 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,650 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 168,567 lots, up 145 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 33,615 lots, down 2,675 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19,426 lots, up 3,270 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 3,476 lots, down 41 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 193,220 tons, down 30 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 30,138 tons, up 4,233 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,560 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 45 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,143 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was - 12 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.9 baht/kg, up 0.79 baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.26 baht/kg, up 0.37 baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) was 56 baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 45.2 baht/kg, up 0.3 baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, down 118.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, up 4 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, down 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, down 32,900 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, down 1.33 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 41.87 days, down 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.84 days, down 0.38 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, down 0.61 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, down 4.27 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.24%, down 2.2 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.91%, down 1.88 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.96%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From June 8th to June 14th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and southwestern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which also had a greater impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2] - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April 2025 and an increase of about 6% from 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2]