农业气象周报 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018451 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、周度重点气象 2、各农作物产区气象 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 「 周度重点关注气象」 3 u 国内方面，国内多数农作物收获结束。天气利于油菜籽、冬麦作物生长。 u 国际方面，美豆大豆收获结束。南美大豆播种结束，处于生长期，巴西早播大豆开始收获。截至2月7日， 巴西25/26年度大豆灌浆率38.8%，成熟率25.6%，收获率17.4%。未来15天，巴西中西部大豆产区西部 降雨低于常值，东部降雨高于常值；大多数地区气温正常。东部降雨较多影响作物收获。未来15天，阿 根廷大豆产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨低于常值，其他主要产区大多降雨高于常值。圣地亚哥-德尔埃斯 特罗省北部气温高于常值，其他地区气温正常。降雨增加有利于土壤墒情。未来15天欧洲关键产区降雨 高于常值，气温高于常值。印尼和马来西亚降雨较多，降雨高于常值，将影响棕榈果采摘。 u ENSO预测：1月至3月拉尼娜概率69%。2月至4月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the shift in macro - expectations driven by the nomination event of Fed's Waller, and the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. The platinum main 2606 contract fell 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram, and the palladium main 2606 contract fell 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data such as ISM services PMI and ADP employment data were slightly below market expectations, and the domestic lay - off level remained at a historical high. The labor market's cooling trend continued, strengthening the mid - term interest rate cut expectation. Although the Waller nomination event caused a shock in the precious metals market and was interpreted as hawkish, there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut this year, which may potentially support the precious metals market in the medium term [7]. - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the platinum loading intensity. Although global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [7]. - In the short term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the price fluctuations of gold and silver. The support level range for London platinum is 1,800 - 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and for London palladium is 1,500 - 1,600 US dollars/ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly this week, with the platinum main 2606 contract down 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram and the palladium main 2606 contract down 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data supported mid - term interest rate cut expectations, and although the Waller event was hawkish - interpreted, there is still an interest rate cut expectation this year, potentially supporting the precious metals market [7]. - EU policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum [7]. - Short - term high - volatility in the precious metals market may continue, and platinum and palladium will likely show a wide - range shock pattern [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market had a deep correction this week. Platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly. As of February 6, 2026, the palladium main 2606 contract was at 410.50 yuan/gram, down 11.54% for the week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 506 yuan/gram, down 19.75% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 27, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 22,026 contracts, a 1.12% increase, and that of palladium was - 2,840 contracts, a 2.82% decrease [13][16]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of February 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 56 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 124 US dollars/ounce [17][21]. - NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly, and palladium inventory decreased significantly. As of February 5, 2026, platinum inventory was 662,618.73 ounces, a 1.14% increase, and palladium inventory was 190,873.50 ounces, a 14.80% decrease [22][25]. - Platinum and gold prices showed high synchronicity, with more significant platinum price fluctuations, and the gold - platinum ratio rebounded this week [26]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [31]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally, and the total demand for global platinum and palladium showed a mild slowdown [36][40]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined [45]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium converged [49]. 3.4 Macro and Options (Macro Data) - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded [53].

业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.6」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -1.33% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.07%/本周变动-0.14BP | | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -1.74% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.12% | | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，科创50及创业 | 本周点评：临近春节假期，央行重启14天期逆回购操作， | | | | 板指跌幅较大，均跌超3%。四期指亦集体走弱，此前 | DR007加权利率回落至1.46%附近，资金面延续平稳宽 | | | | 涨幅明显的IC下行最大。本周，受到美国方面新任美联 | 松。此外，近期权益、贵金属市场进入调整，市场风险 | | | | 储主席提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the US, employment indicators continue to slow, and a rate cut is almost certain. The "asymmetry" between economic resilience and the slowdown in employment and inflation continues to disrupt the long - end yield of US Treasuries, making it difficult for the US dollar to establish a real interest rate differential advantage. If the non - farm payroll data continues to cool, it will further solidify the rate - cut expectation [10]. - In Europe, core inflation has a mild rebound, and the economic outlook has improved. The inflation level remains relatively firm, manufacturing activities show improvement, and the economic outlook within the region is becoming more optimistic as external trade pressure eases [10]. - In China, the 8 - month official manufacturing PMI has improved, and it is expected to continue to show marginal improvement in September. However, there are significant structural differentiations in the manufacturing industry, and subsequent policies are expected to favor high - tech manufacturing [11]. - In the capital market, A - share major indices generally declined this week, except for the ChiNext Index. The four stock index futures also fell collectively. The bond market's trend is restricted by the change in market risk preference. Commodity indices are expected to strengthen due to the strong performance of gold. The US dollar has a rebound, and the euro is fluctuating [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock Market**: The CSI 300 fell 0.81%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures fell 1.02%. A - share major indices generally declined this week, except for the ChiNext Index. The four stock index futures also fell collectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks being relatively firm. The market was dull on Monday, weakened from Tuesday to Thursday due to the 8 - month manufacturing PMI in the contraction range, and rebounded strongly on Friday due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut. The daily trading volume remained above 2 trillion. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.26% this week, with a weekly change of - 0.48BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.10%. The bond market's trend is restricted by market risk preference. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 4.69%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.00%. A series of poor US economic data have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, which has boosted the price of gold and the commodity index. The allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.17%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract fell 0.15%. Before the release of non - farm payroll data, the long - short game of the US dollar intensified. The market has fully priced in a 25 - bps Fed rate cut in September. The euro is fluctuating. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank of China had a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan in the open market. It conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on September 5 to renew the same - term maturing instruments. Although the current liquidity is seasonally loose, there is still 300 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase maturing this month. In the context of slowing economic growth, a stable exchange rate, and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut, the central bank is expected to continue to inject medium - term liquidity [12]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: China and Russia signed more than 20 bilateral cooperation documents in various fields. The "Measures for Marking AI - Generated Synthetic Content" came into effect on September 1. The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects. The SCO member states issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development [14]. - **International News**: Trump appealed to the US Supreme Court regarding the tariff ruling. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activities in most parts of the US had little change. ECB President Lagarde said she would ensure the inflation rate stays at 2%. The deputy governor of the Bank of Japan signaled to continue the rate - hike process [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **US Economic Data**: The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the 7 - month factory orders monthly rate was - 1.3%, the 8 - month ADP employment number was 54,000, the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were 237,000, and the 7 - month trade balance was - 78.3 billion US dollars [17]. - **European Economic Data**: The eurozone 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 50.7, the 7 - month unemployment rate was 6.2%, the 8 - month CPI annual rate initial value was 2.1%, the 7 - month PPI monthly rate was 0.4%, and the 7 - month retail sales monthly rate was - 0.5% [17]. - **Other European Countries**: The UK 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 47, the German 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 49.8, and the French 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 50.4 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include China's August export and import annual rates in US dollars, CPI annual rate, etc.; Japan's July trade balance; Germany's July industrial output monthly rate; the US's August PPI annual rate, CPI annual rate, etc.; and the eurozone's September 11 European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - A-shares' major indices strengthened collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also went up, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Both domestic and overseas positive news boosted the market. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel improved market risk appetite, and the central bank's guidance on financial support for consumption and expansion of consumption enthusiasm for the consumer and financial sectors [8]. - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds rose by about 0.10 - 1.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds rose by about 0.5bp and 1.15bp to 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. The adjustment in the bond market was mainly due to the shift in risk appetite, and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel drove the equity market to strengthen, triggering a slight increase in interest rates [8]. - In May, China's imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value declined year - on - year compared to the previous period, and the real estate market continued to decline. Only social retail sales increased due to new policies. The previously announced CPI and PPI data also indicated future price pressure. The possible improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the dovish stance of the Fed officials supported commodity prices [8]. - The US dollar may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the euro benefits from the weakening of the US dollar in the short term. The Japanese yen is caught between the expectation of interest rate hikes and trade frictions [12]. - In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and the high - base effect. However, the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry and some emerging industries increased significantly [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.95%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures rose 2.78%. A - shares' major indices strengthened, and the four stock index futures went up. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the central bank's guidance on consumption boosted the market. Market trading activity recovered significantly. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 0.05% this week, with a weekly change of + 0.08BP, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures fell by 0.11%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the yields of 1 - 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds rose. The bond market adjustment was due to the shift in risk appetite. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.01%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 1.60%. In May, China's economic data was mixed, and the possible improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the dovish stance of the Fed officials supported commodity prices. Allocation recommendation: buy on dips [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 1.51%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 1.31%. The US dollar was under pressure, the euro benefited from the weakening of the US dollar, and the Japanese yen fluctuated. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8] 2. Important News and Events - Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and emphasized China's support for economic globalization, free trade, and multilateralism [16]. - Six departments including the central bank issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [16]. - A military parade will be held in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [16]. - China strongly condemned the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and called for a ceasefire and dialogue [16]. - Iran and Israel agreed to a full ceasefire [17]. - The US and the EU are about to reach a "reciprocal trade agreement" on multiple non - tariff trade disputes, but the lack of tariff issues in the draft adds uncertainty [17]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is small, but the Fed officials have released dovish signals [17]. 3. This Week's Domestic and Overseas Economic Data - China: The profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale in May decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative profit from January to May decreased by 1.1% [13]. - US: The first - quarter GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised down to - 0.5%, consumer spending growth was at a low level since 2020, and the consumer confidence index was lower than expected [12]. - Eurozone: The economy showed signs of stabilization, but the manufacturing PMI was still under pressure. There were differences within the ECB on the pace of interest rate cuts [12]. - Japan: Inflation pressure continued to rise, but exports were suppressed by the US - Japan tariff deadlock, and domestic demand was weak [12]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Key economic indicators to be released next week include China's June official manufacturing PMI, Germany's June unemployment rate and CPI monthly rate, the US's June ADP employment, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls, etc. [85]