1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a weekly agricultural meteorological analysis, covering the weather conditions and growth stages of various crops in different regions at home and abroad. It also includes ENSO forecasts, which are crucial for understanding the potential impact on crop growth and harvest [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Meteorological Concerns - **Domestic**: Most domestic crop harvests are completed. The weather is favorable for the growth of rapeseed and winter wheat [5]. - **International**: The soybean harvest in the US is over. In South America, soybean sowing is finished, and the crops are in the growing stage. Early - sown soybeans in Brazil have started to be harvested. As of February 7, the soybean filling rate in Brazil's 25/26 season is 38.8%, the maturity rate is 25.6%, and the harvest rate is 17.4%. In the next 15 days, the western part of the central - western soybean - producing areas in Brazil will have less rainfall than normal, while the eastern part will have more. Most areas will have normal temperatures. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Province will have less rainfall than normal, while most other major producing areas will have more. The northern part of Santiago - del Estero Province will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and other areas will have normal temperatures. In Europe, key producing areas will have more rainfall and higher temperatures than normal. In Indonesia and Malaysia, heavy rainfall will affect palm fruit picking [5]. - **ENSO Forecast**: The probability of La Nina is 69% from January to March, 86% from February to April, and 88% from March to May [5]. 3.2 Meteorological Analysis of Each Crop - Producing Area 3.2.1 Soybean - **Domestic**: In Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia), soybean production accounts for over 60% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui), soybean production accounts for over 15% of the total, and the harvest is also completed [9]. - **US**: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part. The 2025/26 US soybean harvest is over, with a production of 115.75 million tons, lower than the previous year's 119.05 million tons. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will be lower than normal, and the precipitation will be higher than normal. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean - producing areas were in a drought state, and the drought situation has worsened compared to the previous week and the same period last year [24][29][33]. - **Brazil**: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central - western part. As of February 7, the sowing rate of the 25/26 season is 99.7%, the harvest progress is 17.4%. The US Department of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production to be 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, the western part of the central - western soybean - producing areas will have less rainfall than normal, and the eastern part will have more, which will affect the crop harvest [37][41]. - **Argentina**: The soybean - producing areas are concentrated in the central part, accounting for about 12% of the world's production. As of early February, the soybean sowing is completed, and the crops are in the growing stage. The US Department of Agriculture expects the 2025/26 production to be 48.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, the Buenos Aires Province will have less rainfall than normal, and most other major producing areas will have more. The northern part of Santiago - del Estero Province will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and other areas will have normal temperatures, which is beneficial to soil moisture [46][47][53]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed - **Domestic**: In the Northwest and North China, spring rapeseed production accounts for about 10% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southwest, winter rapeseed is in the budding and bolting stage, and the current conditions are suitable [57][58]. - **Canada**: Canada is the world's largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 22% of the global production. The rapeseed harvest is completed. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates that the rapeseed sowing area in 2025 will be 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in the three major provinces will have normal rainfall and higher - than - normal temperatures [72][78]. - **EU**: The EU is the world's second - largest rapeseed producer, accounting for about 20% of the global production. Rapeseed is in the growing stage. The consulting agency Strategic Grains estimates that the 2025/26 rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries will be 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season. In the next 15 days, the key producing areas in Europe will have more rainfall and higher temperatures than normal [82][83][88]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - **Indonesia and Malaysia**: The main palm - oil - producing areas in Indonesia are Sumatra and Kalimantan. In Malaysia, the producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak. Currently, heavy rainfall in both countries will affect palm fruit picking. The probability of La Nina is 86% from February to April [94][97][102]. 3.2.4 Other Crops - **Corn**: In Northeast China, spring corn production accounts for over 40% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, summer corn production accounts for over 30% of the total, and both spring and summer corn harvests are completed. In the Southwest, corn production accounts for about 10% of the total, and both spring and summer corn harvests are completed [113][114][115]. - **Cotton**: In Xinjiang, cotton production accounts for about 90% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, cotton production accounts for about 6% of the total, and the harvest is completed [129][130]. - **Apple**: In the Bohai Bay region, apple production accounts for about 33% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Northwest Loess Plateau region, apple production accounts for about 60% of the total, and the harvest is completed [143][144]. - **Jujube**: In Xinjiang, jujube production accounts for about 50% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Loess Plateau region (Shanxi, Shaanxi) and the Huang - Huai - Hai region, jujube production accounts for over 20% of the total respectively, and the harvests are completed [157]. - **Sugarcane**: In Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong, sugarcane production accounts for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total respectively, and the crops are in the harvest period, with suitable current conditions [169]. - **Beet**: In Xinjiang, beet production accounts for about 39% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In North China, beet production accounts for about 57% of the total, and the harvest is completed [183]. - **Peanut**: In Northeast China, peanut production accounts for about 10% of the total, and the harvest is completed. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, peanut production accounts for over 60% of the total, and both spring and summer peanut harvests are completed. In the South China region, peanut production accounts for over 10% of the total, and both spring and autumn peanut harvests are completed [197][198][199]. - **Wheat**: In Northwest China, wheat production accounts for over 10% of the total, mainly spring wheat. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, wheat production accounts for over 80% of the total, mainly winter wheat, which is in the over - wintering period, and the current conditions are suitable [213][214]. - **Rice**: In Northeast China, japonica rice production accounts for about 20% of the total, and the single - season rice harvest is completed. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, single - and double - season rice coexist, and the early - season rice, single - season rice, and late - season rice harvests are completed. In the Southwest, single - season double - cropping rice is the main type, and the single - season rice harvest is completed. In South China, double - season indica rice is planted, and both early - season and late - season rice harvests are completed [228].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the shift in macro - expectations driven by the nomination event of Fed's Waller, and the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. The platinum main 2606 contract fell 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram, and the palladium main 2606 contract fell 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data such as ISM services PMI and ADP employment data were slightly below market expectations, and the domestic lay - off level remained at a historical high. The labor market's cooling trend continued, strengthening the mid - term interest rate cut expectation. Although the Waller nomination event caused a shock in the precious metals market and was interpreted as hawkish, there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut this year, which may potentially support the precious metals market in the medium term [7]. - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the platinum loading intensity. Although global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [7]. - In the short term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the price fluctuations of gold and silver. The support level range for London platinum is 1,800 - 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and for London palladium is 1,500 - 1,600 US dollars/ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly this week, with the platinum main 2606 contract down 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram and the palladium main 2606 contract down 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data supported mid - term interest rate cut expectations, and although the Waller event was hawkish - interpreted, there is still an interest rate cut expectation this year, potentially supporting the precious metals market [7]. - EU policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum [7]. - Short - term high - volatility in the precious metals market may continue, and platinum and palladium will likely show a wide - range shock pattern [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market had a deep correction this week. Platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly. As of February 6, 2026, the palladium main 2606 contract was at 410.50 yuan/gram, down 11.54% for the week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 506 yuan/gram, down 19.75% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 27, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 22,026 contracts, a 1.12% increase, and that of palladium was - 2,840 contracts, a 2.82% decrease [13][16]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of February 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 56 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 124 US dollars/ounce [17][21]. - NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly, and palladium inventory decreased significantly. As of February 5, 2026, platinum inventory was 662,618.73 ounces, a 1.14% increase, and palladium inventory was 190,873.50 ounces, a 14.80% decrease [22][25]. - Platinum and gold prices showed high synchronicity, with more significant platinum price fluctuations, and the gold - platinum ratio rebounded this week [26]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [31]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally, and the total demand for global platinum and palladium showed a mild slowdown [36][40]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined [45]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium converged [49]. 3.4 Macro and Options (Macro Data) - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, affected by the expected liquidity tightening from the new Fed Chair nomination in the US and concerns over the AI industry's limited returns. The trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The bond market may be slightly boosted in the short - term, but the yield decline is limited. The commodity index will show wide - range fluctuations, and the US dollar index may continue to fluctuate within a range in the medium - term [6] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI declined to the contraction range, with both supply and demand shrinking, and the gap widening. However, the production and operation activity expectation index of manufacturing enterprises and the service business activity expectation index are above the critical point, indicating strong confidence [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock**: The CSI 300 fell 1.33%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped 1.74%. A - share major indices declined collectively, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices falling more than 3%. The four stock index futures also weakened. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6] - **Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.14BP this week, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12%. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market may be slightly boosted in the short - term, but the yield decline is limited. The recommended strategy is range - bound trading [6] - **Commodity**: The Wind Commodity Index fell 21.16%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index dropped 8.95%. The US - Iran situation and the strong US dollar affected commodities. The commodity index will show wide - range fluctuations. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6] - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.44%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract dropped 0.48%. The US dollar index continued to rebound. The recommendation is to watch cautiously [6] 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: The "14th Five - Year Plan's" first central No. 1 document on rural revitalization was released; President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump; the "Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival 2026" event will be held; China and the UK signed four economic and trade achievement documents [14] - **International**: US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair; Iran and the US will hold negotiations in Oman; the negotiations among Ukraine, the US and Russia in Abu Dhabi have ended [16] 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **US**: The January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value was 52.4; the January ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.6; the January ADP employment was 2.2 million; the initial jobless claims in the week ending January 31 were 231,000 [17] - **EU**: The January eurozone Manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5; the January CPI annual rate initial value was 1.7%; the December retail sales monthly rate was - 0.5%; the ECB deposit mechanism rate remained at 2% [17] - **Other**: UK, German, French manufacturing PMI and relevant economic data are provided, as well as the central bank interest rate decisions of the UK and the ECB [17] 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - A series of economic indicators from Japan, the US, France, China, the UK and the eurozone will be released, including trade balance, wholesale sales monthly rate, unemployment rate, CPI annual rate, etc [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation in general trade has narrowed. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, with semi - steel tire capacity utilization slightly increasing and all - steel tire capacity utilization slightly decreasing. It is recommended to watch the pressure near the previous highs for the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. In the import rubber market, traders changed positions and closed arbitrage positions, and factories made appropriate low - price purchases. In the domestic spot market, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream enterprises only had a small amount of rigid demand inquiries with insufficient actual order follow - up [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, with African rubber accounting for most of the incoming goods. The inventory in bonded warehouses continues to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate in general trade has narrowed. The willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased. The capacity utilization of tire enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts, pay attention to the pressure near the previous highs and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.03% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 2.75% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated on in detail in the content. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 23, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - rubber was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 22, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 109,870 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 55,339 tons, a decrease of 1,411 tons from last week [25]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 22, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 22, the basis of 20 - rubber was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of January 23, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.6 (- 0.4) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 53 (+ 0.8) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price**: The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [43]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [49]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [53]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [56]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The heavy - truck market in 2025 ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [62].

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market fluctuated strongly this week. Although there was no significant change in actual export volume, market sentiment was stimulated by export expectations, which drove downstream purchases [6]. - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. It is expected that output will likely increase next week as 3 - 5 shut - down plants may resume production [6]. - Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with a tepid trading atmosphere. Downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods and adopt a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains a rigid need, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates slightly [6]. - Due to plant maintenance and the promotion of reserves and rigid demand, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week. However, inventories may increase slightly during the New Year's Day holiday due to reduced trading and plant restarts [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1730 - 1800 in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 0.81% [9]. - As of December 31, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 34 [14]. - As of December 30, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 12381, an increase of 1631 from last week [20]. Group 3: Spot Market - As of December 30, the mainstream price of urea in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [26]. - As of December 30, the FOB price of urea in China was 390 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - As of December 30, the urea basis was - 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week [34]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of December 31, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of December 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation - As of December 31, China's urea output was 135.91 tons, an increase of 2.57 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.93%. The average daily output was 19.42 tons, an increase of 0.37 tons from last week. The urea capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, a month - on - month increase of 1.52% [40]. - As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 28.26%. As of December 31, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 101.92 tons, a decrease of 4.97 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.65% [43]. - According to customs statistics, in November 2025, urea exports were 60.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 percentage points. The operating rate of enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [49]. - As of December 25, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from last week [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the US, employment indicators continue to slow, and a rate cut is almost certain. The "asymmetry" between economic resilience and the slowdown in employment and inflation continues to disrupt the long - end yield of US Treasuries, making it difficult for the US dollar to establish a real interest rate differential advantage. If the non - farm payroll data continues to cool, it will further solidify the rate - cut expectation [10]. - In Europe, core inflation has a mild rebound, and the economic outlook has improved. The inflation level remains relatively firm, manufacturing activities show improvement, and the economic outlook within the region is becoming more optimistic as external trade pressure eases [10]. - In China, the 8 - month official manufacturing PMI has improved, and it is expected to continue to show marginal improvement in September. However, there are significant structural differentiations in the manufacturing industry, and subsequent policies are expected to favor high - tech manufacturing [11]. - In the capital market, A - share major indices generally declined this week, except for the ChiNext Index. The four stock index futures also fell collectively. The bond market's trend is restricted by the change in market risk preference. Commodity indices are expected to strengthen due to the strong performance of gold. The US dollar has a rebound, and the euro is fluctuating [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock Market**: The CSI 300 fell 0.81%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures fell 1.02%. A - share major indices generally declined this week, except for the ChiNext Index. The four stock index futures also fell collectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks being relatively firm. The market was dull on Monday, weakened from Tuesday to Thursday due to the 8 - month manufacturing PMI in the contraction range, and rebounded strongly on Friday due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut. The daily trading volume remained above 2 trillion. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.26% this week, with a weekly change of - 0.48BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.10%. The bond market's trend is restricted by market risk preference. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 4.69%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.00%. A series of poor US economic data have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, which has boosted the price of gold and the commodity index. The allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.17%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract fell 0.15%. Before the release of non - farm payroll data, the long - short game of the US dollar intensified. The market has fully priced in a 25 - bps Fed rate cut in September. The euro is fluctuating. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank of China had a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan in the open market. It conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on September 5 to renew the same - term maturing instruments. Although the current liquidity is seasonally loose, there is still 300 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase maturing this month. In the context of slowing economic growth, a stable exchange rate, and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut, the central bank is expected to continue to inject medium - term liquidity [12]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: China and Russia signed more than 20 bilateral cooperation documents in various fields. The "Measures for Marking AI - Generated Synthetic Content" came into effect on September 1. The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects. The SCO member states issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development [14]. - **International News**: Trump appealed to the US Supreme Court regarding the tariff ruling. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activities in most parts of the US had little change. ECB President Lagarde said she would ensure the inflation rate stays at 2%. The deputy governor of the Bank of Japan signaled to continue the rate - hike process [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **US Economic Data**: The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the 7 - month factory orders monthly rate was - 1.3%, the 8 - month ADP employment number was 54,000, the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were 237,000, and the 7 - month trade balance was - 78.3 billion US dollars [17]. - **European Economic Data**: The eurozone 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 50.7, the 7 - month unemployment rate was 6.2%, the 8 - month CPI annual rate initial value was 2.1%, the 7 - month PPI monthly rate was 0.4%, and the 7 - month retail sales monthly rate was - 0.5% [17]. - **Other European Countries**: The UK 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 47, the German 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 49.8, and the French 8 - month manufacturing PMI final value was 50.4 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include China's August export and import annual rates in US dollars, CPI annual rate, etc.; Japan's July trade balance; Germany's July industrial output monthly rate; the US's August PPI annual rate, CPI annual rate, etc.; and the eurozone's September 11 European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Although the US restarted the tariff war, the market's reaction has become dull. With the release of semi-annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about the first-half earnings of listed companies. The previous series of growth-stabilizing policies are starting to take effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive economic data in the second quarter. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [6][97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 1.46% for the week, IH2509 rose 1.27%, IC2509 rose 2.69%, and IM2509 rose 3.40%. - Spot: The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 rose 1.96%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% [10]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump announced a new round of tariff rates, which may have a negative impact on the market, but the market's reaction has become dull. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase, which is positive for the market. - As of July 10, 129 out of 147 A-share listed companies that have announced their semi-annual performance forecasts are expected to be profitable, which is positive for the market [6][13][97]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the STAR 50 rose 0.98%, the SME 100 rose 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [16]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.73%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.61% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors generally rose, with real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors strengthening significantly, while coal and banking sectors weakened slightly [21]. - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flow**: Industry main funds were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in electronics, computer, and national defense and military industries [25]. - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was low [29]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders net sold 6.61 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted-share lifting market value was 43.09 billion yuan, and northbound funds traded a total of 688.585 billion yuan [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to be supported by the fundamental recovery, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [97].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - A-shares' major indices strengthened collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also went up, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Both domestic and overseas positive news boosted the market. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel improved market risk appetite, and the central bank's guidance on financial support for consumption and expansion of consumption enthusiasm for the consumer and financial sectors [8]. - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds rose by about 0.10 - 1.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds rose by about 0.5bp and 1.15bp to 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. The adjustment in the bond market was mainly due to the shift in risk appetite, and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel drove the equity market to strengthen, triggering a slight increase in interest rates [8]. - In May, China's imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value declined year - on - year compared to the previous period, and the real estate market continued to decline. Only social retail sales increased due to new policies. The previously announced CPI and PPI data also indicated future price pressure. The possible improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the dovish stance of the Fed officials supported commodity prices [8]. - The US dollar may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the euro benefits from the weakening of the US dollar in the short term. The Japanese yen is caught between the expectation of interest rate hikes and trade frictions [12]. - In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and the high - base effect. However, the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry and some emerging industries increased significantly [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.95%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures rose 2.78%. A - shares' major indices strengthened, and the four stock index futures went up. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the central bank's guidance on consumption boosted the market. Market trading activity recovered significantly. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 0.05% this week, with a weekly change of + 0.08BP, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures fell by 0.11%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the yields of 1 - 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds rose. The bond market adjustment was due to the shift in risk appetite. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.01%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 1.60%. In May, China's economic data was mixed, and the possible improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the dovish stance of the Fed officials supported commodity prices. Allocation recommendation: buy on dips [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 1.51%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 1.31%. The US dollar was under pressure, the euro benefited from the weakening of the US dollar, and the Japanese yen fluctuated. Allocation recommendation: cautious waiting and seeing [8] 2. Important News and Events - Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and emphasized China's support for economic globalization, free trade, and multilateralism [16]. - Six departments including the central bank issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [16]. - A military parade will be held in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [16]. - China strongly condemned the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and called for a ceasefire and dialogue [16]. - Iran and Israel agreed to a full ceasefire [17]. - The US and the EU are about to reach a "reciprocal trade agreement" on multiple non - tariff trade disputes, but the lack of tariff issues in the draft adds uncertainty [17]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is small, but the Fed officials have released dovish signals [17]. 3. This Week's Domestic and Overseas Economic Data - China: The profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale in May decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative profit from January to May decreased by 1.1% [13]. - US: The first - quarter GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised down to - 0.5%, consumer spending growth was at a low level since 2020, and the consumer confidence index was lower than expected [12]. - Eurozone: The economy showed signs of stabilization, but the manufacturing PMI was still under pressure. There were differences within the ECB on the pace of interest rate cuts [12]. - Japan: Inflation pressure continued to rise, but exports were suppressed by the US - Japan tariff deadlock, and domestic demand was weak [12]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Key economic indicators to be released next week include China's June official manufacturing PMI, Germany's June unemployment rate and CPI monthly rate, the US's June ADP employment, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls, etc. [85]