Summary of the Organic Silicon Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry experienced a demand growth rate of nearly 20% in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by increased demand for high-temperature adhesives in the electronics sector and a rise in export volumes to Europe. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 8%-10% in the second half of the year due to poor performance in the construction sector, although significant demand growth is noted in emerging fields such as new energy and new materials [1][8]. Key Points - **Current DMC Pricing and Cost Structure**: The current price of DMC is approximately 11,000 RMB per ton, with production costs ranging from 10,500 to 10,700 RMB per ton, indicating a narrow profit margin. The rise in industrial silicon prices is a major influencing factor, with some companies reducing costs by self-supplying industrial silicon and chloromethane [1][9]. - **Production Capacity and Utilization**: Domestic organic silicon production capacity accounts for about 70% of the global total, with current operating rates around 72%-73%. This is expected to increase to about 80% in the second half of the year due to easing supply-demand tensions and seasonal demand peaks in September and October [1][11][13]. - **Future Capacity Additions**: No new DMC production capacity is expected to come online in 2025. Planned capacity additions for 2026 are primarily concentrated in the Xinjiang Qiya Phase I project, with other projects facing uncertainties. Supply growth will mainly rely on existing companies increasing their operating rates [1][12]. - **Impact of Dow's Exit**: Dow's exit from the market is not expected to significantly impact global organic silicon supply, as domestic capacity can compensate for the reduction. This is anticipated to benefit domestic exports, with an expected increase in export volumes [1][6]. Market Dynamics - **Price Trends**: The organic silicon market has seen a downward price trend throughout the year, with prices hitting a historical low of 10,000 RMB per ton in mid-June. Following this, there has been a slight rebound in prices due to order fulfillment and inventory reduction [2][4]. - **Demand Forecast**: The second half of the year is expected to perform better than the first half, with a strong demand forecast during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The impact of U.S. tariffs is anticipated to be less severe in the latter half of the year [5][8]. - **Downstream Product Applications**: High-temperature adhesives account for about 40% of downstream products, primarily used in construction and electronics. Room temperature adhesives make up 30%, while silicone oil accounts for 12%-15%, with applications in personal care and food processing [3][15]. Additional Insights - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels are reported to be around 40,000 to 50,000 tons, with a gradual decline expected as orders are fulfilled. The inventory situation is relatively stable, with monthly consumption around 200,000 tons [20]. - **Global Demand Trends**: Overseas demand for organic silicon is primarily concentrated in the electronics sector, with increasing needs for specialty silicone and customized silicone due to advancements in semiconductor and AI technologies [21]. - **Raw Material Supply**: DMC production requires approximately 0.52 to 0.53 tons of industrial silicon per ton of DMC, with improvements in processes allowing some companies to reduce this to below 0.5 tons [22]. - **Long-term Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices may rise in the short term due to futures market support, but long-term trends remain uncertain due to unresolved supply-demand issues [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the organic silicon industry as discussed in the conference call.

2025 年 4 月 20 日下午，由北京化工大学新材料校友会主办， 上海臻禧实业有限公司、 埃米三江新材料产业创新中心、上海宝山技术转移有限公 司、有机功能材料与应用技术研究所、互联宝地滨江园、苏州市化工新材料产业创新联盟协办的有机硅材料应用创新共创沙龙，在上海宝山互联宝地滨 江园埃米三江新材料产业创新中心圆满举行。 本次沙龙聚焦有机硅材料在人形机器人、电子皮肤、汽车电子等前沿领域的应用，同时结合 AI 辅助设计、环保法规等热点议题，旨在搭建一个交 流、合作、共赢的平台，助力有机硅材料行业的高质量发展，挖掘创新机会。 活动吸引了近 30 人参加，上海宝山大学科技园发展有限公司党委书记、董事长朱景宏应邀出席了本次活动。活动由北化新材料校友会秘书长胡广君 主持。上海臻禧实业有限公司 、 上海埃米三江新材料科技有限公司董事长、北化新材料校友会副会长姜宝文发表开幕致辞，阐明了本次活动的初衷，希 望与有机硅行业同仁共同探讨行业发展面临的问题、卡点及创新机遇。 主题分享环节中，国金证券基础化工组研究员李含钰女士发表题为《有机硅材料：基本面分析与未来产业应用展望》的演讲。她指出，有机硅材料 凭借优良性能，在电子、电力、建 ...