市场可能低估了 "蜜雪模式" 所蕴含的零售禀赋和商业方法论。 文丨胡昊 国庆假期前的最后一天，蜜雪集团签订了对鲜啤福鹿家的投资协议，以此，蜜雪集团正式涉足现打鲜啤 行业。 具体交易内容是，蜜雪集团以现金增资 2.856 亿元获得了后者 51% 的股权，同日，集团再以 0.112 亿元 的对价向后者的独立第三方股东购买其所持 2% 的鲜啤福鹿家老股，最终蜜雪集团以 53% 的股权完成 对鲜啤福鹿家的并表。 对于这一交易，市场普遍反应较为乐观，同时也有小部分人持谨慎的态度。 来源：晚点LatePost 但实际的交易内容是，蜜雪集团通过现金增资的方式获得了鲜啤福鹿家的控股权，这部分现金将作为运 营储备资金，用以推动鲜啤福鹿家未来规模化扩张的进程。 因此，市场关注的重点大概率就是蜜雪集团或鲜啤福鹿家在啤酒行业的市场前景问题，这篇文章将围绕 这点展开对如下问题的探讨： - 蜜雪集团的商业模式相较整个啤酒行业是否具备差异化优势？ - 国内啤酒市场正呈现怎样的发展趋势？现打鲜啤行业又处于何种发展现状？ - 鲜啤福鹿家在如今的现打鲜啤领域是否具备持续增长的市场空间和商业逻辑？ - 鲜啤福鹿家的估值是否具备合理性？ 通过对这些 ...

市场可能低估了 "蜜雪模式" 所蕴含的零售禀赋和商业方法论。 文 丨 胡昊 国庆假期前的最后一天，蜜雪集团签订了对鲜啤福鹿家的投资协议，以此，蜜雪集团正式涉足现打鲜 啤行业。 具体交易内容是，蜜雪集团以现金增资 2.856 亿元获得了后者 51% 的股权，同日，集团再以 0.112 亿 元的对价向后者的独立第三方股东购买其所持 2% 的鲜啤福鹿家老股，最终蜜雪集团以 53% 的股权完 成对鲜啤福鹿家的并表。 对于这一交易，市场普遍反应较为乐观，同时也有小部分人持谨慎的态度。 但实际的交易内容是，蜜雪集团通过现金增资的方式获得了鲜啤福鹿家的控股权，这部分现金将作为 运营储备资金，用以推动鲜啤福鹿家未来规模化扩张的进程。 因此，市场关注的重点大概率就是蜜雪集团或鲜啤福鹿家在啤酒行业的市场前景问题，这篇文章将围 绕这点展开对如下问题的探讨： 通过对这些问题的展开梳理，我们就能更好地判断蜜雪集团涉足啤酒行业到底是一个主动的投资行为 还是一个被动选项。 目前，市场可能还是低估了 "蜜雪模式" 在现打鲜啤行业的差异化竞争能力，正所谓颠覆行业的往往不 是同业竞争，而是跨行、跨赛道竞争，蜜雪集团的渠道体系和零售禀赋之于现打鲜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The craft beer trend is reshaping the beer industry landscape, with Sichuan's differentiated development path emerging under the dominance of major players [2][11] Industry Overview - Sichuan's beer production increased by 10.0% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching 1.855 million kiloliters, with July alone seeing a significant growth of 23.4% [2] - In contrast to the overall decline in beer production capacity over the past decade, Sichuan's beer capacity is on the rise [2][9] - Guangdong surpassed Shandong in annual beer production for the first time last year, marking a shift in the long-standing dominance of Shandong [2][16] Market Dynamics - The beer industry is experiencing a "decentralization" trend, influenced by factors such as consumption upgrades, demographic changes, strategic adjustments by leading companies, and the impact of emerging categories [2][17] - Major beer brands, including China Resources Snow Beer, Tsingtao, and Budweiser, have established production facilities in Sichuan, contributing to a total capacity of nearly 3 million kiloliters [8][18] Craft Beer Development - The rise of craft beer is providing new momentum for industry upgrades, with several craft beer projects launched in Sichuan, focusing on unique flavors and higher value-added products [10][14] - New craft beer production lines are being established, such as the 250,000-ton project by Sichuan Chuanpi Technology and the 100,000-ton craft beer line by Nanbo Brewery [13][14] Structural Changes - The beer industry is entering a "multi-polar era," with traditional dominance by Shandong being challenged by rising capacities in provinces like Guangdong and Sichuan [16][17] - The shift is driven by regional consumption market restructuring, strategic changes in enterprises, product structure upgrades, and supportive policies and capital investments [17][18] Conclusion - The dual trend of "regionalization of capacity and concentration of brands" in the beer industry is expected to continue for a longer period, despite the decentralization of production capacity [18]

Core Insights - The beer industry in China is experiencing a generational divide, with traditional industrial beers seeing a decline in consumption while craft beers are gaining popularity among younger consumers [2][10][11] - In 2022, the beer industry revenue in China fell by 5.7%, making it the only category in the food and beverage sector to experience negative growth [1][2] - The craft beer market is projected to reach 130 billion yuan by 2025, with a 17% annual growth rate, significantly outpacing the decline of industrial beers [2] Industry Trends - The traditional beer market is characterized by high price sensitivity among consumers, particularly among older generations who prioritize affordability over taste [5][6][10] - Local beer brands have a strong understanding of their regional consumers, but the high transportation costs limit their ability to expand nationally [4][9] - The shift in consumer demographics, with younger generations less reliant on alcohol for stress relief, has led to a decline in traditional beer consumption [10][11] Consumer Behavior - Younger consumers are increasingly seeking unique flavors and experiences, leading to a rise in demand for craft beers that offer diverse taste profiles [11][13] - The consumption patterns of younger generations emphasize moderation and quality, with many preferring to drink less but enjoy higher-quality beverages [11][12] - Emotional connections and social experiences are becoming crucial for brands to engage younger consumers, prompting a shift in marketing strategies [14][15] Market Dynamics - The beer market is witnessing intense competition, with brands innovating rapidly to capture consumer interest through unique flavors and marketing campaigns [16][17] - Price competition is becoming a significant issue, with brands risking quality in an attempt to attract price-sensitive consumers [17][18] - The craft beer segment is expanding rapidly, driven by changing consumer preferences and the desire for new experiences [13][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growing popularity of craft beer in urban areas, particularly among younger consumers, with cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Qingdao hosting craft beer festivals [1][2] - The primary consumer group for craft beer is the 90s and 00s generation, with young women emerging as significant contributors to this market [2][5] - Craft beer is characterized by its pure ingredients and artisanal brewing methods, differentiating it from industrial beer, which often contains additives [3][4] Group 2 - The craft beer market is experiencing a shift from being a niche high-end product to a more affordable option, with major retailers like Hema offering competitive prices [6] - The sales data indicates that craft beer accounts for over 60% of overall beer sales in some markets, reflecting a significant demand [6] - The future of the craft beer market appears promising, with potential for growth driven by increasing consumer demand, technological advancements, and favorable policy environments, although challenges such as market competition and cost pressures remain [7]