证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-27 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] #海外政治：特朗普宣布罢免理事库克，美联储独立性遭挑战 核心观点：特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联 储理事库克，成为 1913 年美联储成立以来首次。当前美联储理事会中沃 勒和鲍曼 2 位理事均由特朗普提名，未来若特朗普提名的新理事米兰能 够获得参议院批准，且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有 4 人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数。罢免消息公布后，市场对未 来更多"特朗普派"的理事就职预期令明年的降息预期升温，而对美联储 独立性和美元信用的担忧则令长端美债利率和黄金价格上行，美元指数 下行。向前看，由于罢免风波前景未明，对美联储独立性的担忧料将持续 发酵，预计黄金价格将阶段性维持高位、美债期限溢价走阔。 风险提示： 特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水平时间过长， 引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20250825：转债市场分歧正在累积 1）在维持整体仓位稳健的基础上 ...

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to September. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% during the week [1][15][17] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][15][17] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading pattern [1][15][17] Fixed Income - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 12 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 34.961 billion yuan, an increase of 3.531 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 56.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Industry Analysis Robotics and Automation - The report highlights that the human-like robot sector is entering a year of mass production, with supply chain adjustments and component innovations being crucial. Tesla's Musk has set a production target of 5,000 to 10,000 units for the year [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of component innovations such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials in enhancing robot capabilities [7][8] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with low valuations and low holdings providing a balanced risk-reward profile. The estimated valuation for the insurance sector is between 0.61-0.96 times PEV and 0.98-2.21 times PB, indicating historical lows [9] REITs - The report discusses the potential of REITs in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the importance of policy support and structural optimization to enhance investment value. The diversification of asset types is expected to accelerate, with new assets like data centers and wind power emerging [10] Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a projected demand growth of 0-3% for the year. The report notes that the export market remains strong, contributing to high industry sentiment [11] Unmanned Forklift Industry - The report suggests that the unmanned forklift sector is poised for rapid growth driven by AI technology and smart logistics. It recommends investing in leading companies in the smart forklift space [12] Consumer Services - The analysis of consumer spending in China indicates that the overall consumption rate is low, with both service and goods consumption needing improvement. The service consumption rate in China was 21.1% in 2019, compared to an average of 28.4% across 43 countries [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of Suzhou Huichuan United Power Co., Ltd. marks a significant development in the "A-share split" process, indicating that strict regulations do not equate to a complete halt in the market, but rather a new normal for regulatory practices [2][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Huichuan Technology's subsidiary, United Power, has received approval for its initial public offering on the ChiNext board, becoming the second case of "A-share split" after the new "National Nine Articles" policy [1]. Regulatory Environment - The approval of United Power reflects a shift in regulatory signals, suggesting that high-quality and compliant split listings are still viable under the new regulatory framework [2][4]. - The new "National Nine Articles" policy aims to curb blind splits and arbitrage, establishing a clear boundary for future split listings [4]. Company Qualifications - United Power meets stringent regulatory standards in terms of business independence, technological innovation, and sustainable growth, which are critical for passing the regulatory scrutiny [5]. - The company has established a robust independent operational framework since its inception in 2016, focusing on electric drive systems and power systems for electric vehicles [5]. - United Power has developed 26 core product technologies and holds 98 invention patents, showcasing its technological leadership [5]. Parent Company Stability - Huichuan Technology, as a leading player in the industrial control sector, has demonstrated strong financial health, with a reported revenue of 37.04 billion yuan in 2024, up 21.77% year-on-year [6]. - The split is expected to enhance both companies' focus on their core businesses and improve overall market visibility and valuation [6]. Industry Synergy - United Power plays a pivotal role in the electric vehicle supply chain, linking upstream components and serving downstream automotive manufacturers, thus contributing to the integration and upgrading of China's automotive industry [7]. - The company aligns with national strategies for developing the electric vehicle sector, which is a key area for sustainable economic growth [7]. Market Implications - The case of United Power serves as a benchmark for future split listings, emphasizing the need for financial independence and strategic necessity for subsidiaries seeking to go public [9][10]. - The regulatory focus on maintaining a balance between strict oversight and promoting high-quality development is evident in the scrutiny applied to United Power's listing process [10][11]. Conclusion - The successful split of United Power not only provides a new platform for its growth but also exemplifies the role of capital markets in supporting technology-driven companies, potentially leading to more compliant and high-quality "A-share split" cases in the future [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of Suzhou Huichuan United Power System Co., Ltd. (referred to as "United Power") marks a significant event in the capital market, reflecting the innovative practices of the system and its alignment with national strategies [1] Group 1: Significance of Spin-off Listing - The spin-off listing represents a selection of high-quality companies, emphasizing the need for business independence, technological advancement, necessity of spin-off, and reasonable valuation clarity [2] - United Power has shown remarkable financial independence, with revenue growth from 5.027 billion to 16.178 billion from 2022 to 2024, achieving a compound growth rate of 79.39% [2] - The spin-off is justified by the parent company Huichuan Technology's compliance with profit thresholds and the high growth potential of United Power in the new energy sector [3] Group 2: Modern Enterprise System Practices - United Power's success is attributed to its solid modern enterprise system and governance, which are crucial for attracting capital market interest under the new regulatory environment [4] - Huichuan Technology has demonstrated significant growth since its listing, with revenue increasing from 600 million to 37 billion and net profit from 200 million to 4.3 billion, showcasing the capital market's role in optimizing resource allocation [5] Group 3: Strategic Alignment and Institutional Synergy - The capital market serves not only as a financing tool but also as a mechanism for strategic implementation through resource integration and governance constraints [9] - United Power's spin-off exemplifies a dual empowerment mechanism, acquiring resources while maintaining governance transparency to meet regulatory requirements [9] - The case of United Power illustrates how the new regulatory framework and modern enterprise governance can effectively support national strategic goals [9] Group 4: Implications for Mergers and Acquisitions Market - The spin-off operation of United Power is crucial for enhancing the M&A market ecosystem, potentially leading to improved performance and valuation for the company [10] - The successful case of United Power serves as a benchmark for the M&A market, boosting market confidence and demonstrating the capital market's ability to select technology-intensive enterprises [10] - The spin-off creates a synergistic structure where the parent company focuses on industrial control while the subsidiary specializes in new energy, validating the capital market's role in supporting the real economy [10]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou United Power System Co., Ltd. (referred to as "United Power") has met the conditions for listing and is positioned as a leading enterprise in the new energy vehicle power system sector, having been spun off from Huichuan Technology [2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - United Power is the only entity within the Huichuan Technology system that operates the electric drive and power systems for new energy vehicles, showcasing a complete and independent R&D, production, and sales system [2][3] - Huichuan Technology, the parent company, has a market capitalization of 170 billion yuan and reported a revenue of 37.04 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.77% [3] Group 2: Business Performance - United Power's revenue has shown significant growth from 2.90 billion yuan in 2021 to 16.18 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 79.39% over the past three years [4] - In 2024, United Power held a market share of approximately 10.7% in the electric control products segment, ranking first among third-party suppliers [4] Group 3: Industry Position and Innovation - United Power is positioned at the core of the new energy vehicle industry chain, focusing on technological innovation in core components, and has developed 26 core product technologies and 98 invention patents [6] - The company has actively participated in national key research projects, enhancing its technological barriers and industry recognition [6] Group 4: Spin-off Benefits - The spin-off of United Power aims to enhance its transparency and showcase its value, which is expected to positively impact its valuation and stock price [7] - This separation allows Huichuan Technology to focus on its core business, improving operational efficiency and reducing risks associated with diversification [7][8]