据彭博报道，周一布伦特原油看涨期权交易量创下单日历史新高，超过55.6万份合约易手。这一纪录紧随上周五的交易激增， 反映出市场对伊朗这一欧佩克第四大产油国供应风险的高度警惕。 隐含波动率和看涨期权溢价均延续了上周末开始的攀升，目前已升至去年6月美国和以色列轰炸伊朗以来的最高水平。这迫使 此前押注供应过剩的空头仓位紧急平仓，布伦特原油期货自上周三以来已上涨超过6%。 石油市场正经历一场剧烈的情绪逆转，伊朗抗议活动引发的供应中断担忧，促使交易员以前所未有的规模买入看涨期权，寻 求对冲价格飙升风险，彻底改变了年初市场对供应过剩的悲观预期。 这些价差策略使交易员能够以较低成本对冲从军事升级到伊朗石油工人抗议导致供应中断等一系列可能结果。 期权"偏斜"转向看涨 布伦特原油第二个月期权的"偏斜"指标自上周中以来已转向有利于看涨期权，这一指标衡量的是对冲价格上涨相对于价格下 跌的成本差异。这种市场状况相对罕见，通常只在地缘政治压力时期出现。 咨询公司Energy Aspects在报告中指出，近几周交易商的多头伽马敞口一直在限制价格波动。然而上周期权市场出现重大仓位 转变，大量看涨期权买盘使交易商处于空头伽马状态，消除了对波 ...

地缘风险溢价重回能源市场，原油价格录得自去年6月以来最长的周连涨纪录。 据环球时报，伊朗骚乱已持续数日，伊朗最高国家安全委员会指责美国和以色列策划了伊朗动乱。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊称，骚乱分子想通过破 坏公共财物从而取悦另一个国家的总统。 美国总统特朗普则警告称，如果伊朗方面对相关人员死亡事件负有直接责任，"他们将付出惨痛的代价"。他还称，若再有人员死亡，美国将对伊 朗进行"严厉打击"。 市场焦点已从委内瑞拉转向伊朗。前者在特朗普称取消进一步行动后一度令油价短暂回落，但伊朗作为更大的产油国和出口国，其潜在供应中断 的影响远超委内瑞拉。 周五WTI原油期货价格一度涨超3%，尽管尾盘涨幅回落，但过去两个交易日累涨超过5%，同时连涨三周、创下去年6月以来最长的周连涨纪录。 （WTI原油期货价格本周表现强劲） 此外期权市场也反映了风险偏好的转变，看涨期权的偏斜程度已达到自7月以来美国原油期货的最高水平，交易员正在为应对潜在的价格飙升支付 自去年夏天以色列与伊朗交火以来最高的保险溢价。 尽管价格走高，基本面压力依然存在，高盛指出其客户对油价的看跌程度为十年来之最。然而，正是这种极度的看跌情绪叠加突发的地缘政治风 险，可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecasts, incorporating further downward adjustments to GDP expectations, predicting Brent crude prices to drop to $62 and WTI prices to $58 per barrel by December 2025, and further to $55 and $51 by December 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Assumptions - The forecast assumes that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, with a projected mild increase in oil demand of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, based on a 0.5% GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a global GDP growth of 1.7% [1] - OPEC+ supply is expected to increase moderately, with a total production increase of approximately 700,000 barrels per day over four months, following a 411,000 barrels per day increase in May [1] Group 2: Price Downside Risks - Three potential shocks could lead to downward pressure on oil prices: a typical U.S. economic recession, a global economic slowdown, and the cancellation of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [2] - In a typical U.S. recession scenario, Brent crude prices are expected to fall to $58 and $50 per barrel by December 2025 and December 2026, respectively [5] - In a global GDP slowdown scenario, Brent prices could drop to $54 and $45 per barrel by the same dates, while the complete cancellation of OPEC+ cuts could see prices at $53 and $45 per barrel [6] Group 3: Trading Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs recommends a new three-way trading strategy for macro investors and oil producers to hedge against recession and oil price decline risks [10] - The strategy involves selling Brent crude call options with a strike price of $75 per barrel for June 2026 and using the proceeds to buy put options with strike prices of $55 and $45 per barrel [10][13] - This approach is based on the premise that idle capacity limits the upside potential for oil prices, while U.S. shale oil provides a solid price support at lower levels [10]