加元和挪威克朗随着油价下跌而走低，此前美国在周末采取军事行动抓捕了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马 杜罗。对委内瑞拉巨大的原油储备最终可能导致产量增加的担忧令油价承压。高盛分析师在一份报告中 称："继近期俄罗斯和美国产量超出预期之后，委内瑞拉潜在的长期产量增长进一步加大了我们对2027 年及以后油价预测的下行风险。"伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，美元上涨0.4%，至1.3781加元，创 两周新高。欧元上涨0.2%，至11.8128挪威克朗。 来源：滚动播报 ...

特朗普表示，美国将"深度参与"委内瑞拉石油工业的未来，利用美国的金融资源和行业技术恢复其往日的石油生产荣 光。高盛认为，考虑到基础设施的退化程度，任何产量的恢复都将是"渐进且局部的"。然而，若委内瑞拉产量长期走 高，结合美国和俄罗斯的产量增长，将进一步增加2027年及以后油价下行的风险。 一方面，如果新政府在美方支持下获得全面制裁豁免，通过进口稀释剂、修复油井及重启受损的升级装置，产量可 能在2026年底前增加40万桶/日。 在此情景下，高盛预计2026年布伦特原油均价将降至54美元，低于其基准预测的 56美元。 另一方面，若马杜罗内阁试图维持控制权导致混乱加剧，或者因仓储限制导致生产中断继续，产量可能在同期下降 40万桶/日，从而推高布伦特原油均价至58美元。 目前的基准情景假设产量维持在90万桶/日。 委内瑞拉政局突变后的短期原油供应前景充满不确定性，但高盛分析认为，从长期来看，该国原油产量的潜在复苏 将给全球油价带来显著的下行压力。 周末，美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，并抓捕了该国领导人马杜罗。美国总统特朗普随后表示，美国将"深度参与"委 内瑞拉石油工业的未来。特朗普宣称美国公司将投入数十亿美元重建该国崩 ...

消息面上，美国对委内瑞拉发动军事打击，抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗。特朗普明确表示，"美国大型石 油公司将投入数十亿美元，重点修复委内瑞拉严重破损的石油基础设施，助力其恢复产能并创造收 益"，同时"对委内瑞拉的石油禁运仍完全有效。" 公开资料显示，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量，但目前的石油日产量不足100万桶，不到全 球石油产量的1%。高盛认为，考虑到基础设施的退化程度，任何产量的恢复都将是"渐进且局部的"。 然而，若委内瑞拉产量长期走高，结合美国和俄罗斯的产量增长，将进一步增加2027年及以后油价下行 的风险。 三桶油集体下跌，截至发稿，中石油(00857)跌3.99%，报8.18港元；中海油(00883)跌3.2%，报21.16港 元；中石化(00386)跌1.28%，报4.64港元。 ...

消息面上，美国对委内瑞拉发动军事打击，抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗。特朗普明确表示，"美国大型石 油公司将投入数十亿美元，重点修复委内瑞拉严重破损的石油基础设施，助力其恢复产能并创造收 益"，同时"对委内瑞拉的石油禁运仍完全有效。" 公开资料显示，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量，但目前的石油日产量不足100万桶，不到全 球石油产量的1%。高盛认为，考虑到基础设施的退化程度，任何产量的恢复都将是"渐进且局部的"。 然而，若委内瑞拉产量长期走高，结合美国和俄罗斯的产量增长，将进一步增加2027年及以后油价下行 的风险。 智通财经APP获悉，三桶油集体下跌，截至发稿，中石油(00857)跌3.99%，报8.18港元；中海油(00883) 跌3.2%，报21.16港元；中石化(00386)跌1.28%，报4.64港元。 ...

委内瑞拉政局突变后的短期原油供应前景充满不确定性，但高盛分析认为，从长期来看，该国原油产量的潜在复苏将给全球油价带 来显著的下行压力。 周末，美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，并抓捕了该国领导人马杜罗。据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普随后表示，美国将"深度参 与"委内瑞拉石油工业的未来。特朗普宣称美国公司将投入数十亿美元重建该国崩溃的能源基础设施，意图利用美国的金融资源和 行业技术恢复其往日的石油生产荣光。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Daan Struyven在报告中警告称，考虑到基础设施的退化程度，任何产量的恢复都将是"渐进且局部 的"。然而，若委内瑞拉产量长期走高，结合美国和俄罗斯的产量增长，将进一步增加2027年及以后油价下行的风险。 尽管地缘政治局势紧张，高盛并未调整其今年的油价预测，仍维持布伦特原油每桶56美元和WTI原油每桶52美元的均价预期不变。 原油期货周一开盘走低，布伦特原油价格在每桶61美元附近徘徊。 短期供应风险并存 高盛报告认为，短期内委内瑞拉对油价的影响呈现"模棱两可"的状态，具体取决于美国制裁政策的演变。 一方面，如果新政府在美方支持下获得全面制裁豁免，通过进口稀释剂、修复油井及重启受损的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' latest report quantifies the potential impact of a peace agreement on oil prices, indicating that the downside risk for refined oil is significantly greater than for crude oil [2][3] Group 1: Market Expectations and Price Projections - As of November 26, 2025, Brent crude oil prices have fallen to $62 per barrel, with European diesel crack spreads plummeting nearly 25% to $28 per barrel due to market expectations of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Russia [3] - In Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario, Russian liquid fuel production is projected to decline from 10.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in Q4 2025 to 9.0 mb/d by the end of 2027, driven by ongoing drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and low oil prices [3] - Even without a peace agreement, strong non-Russian supply is expected to push Brent/WTI prices down to $56/$52 per barrel by 2026 [3] Group 2: Impact of Peace Agreement on Oil Prices - If a peace agreement is reached and sanctions on the Russian oil industry are lifted, Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent oil price forecasts for 2026 could be adjusted down by $4-$5 per barrel due to the gradual recovery of Russian production and the release of floating storage inventories [4][5] - Two recovery scenarios are outlined: a slow recovery maintaining production at 10.1 mb/d until 2027, leading to average Brent prices of $52/$58 for 2026/2027, and a rapid recovery returning to pre-war levels of 11.3 mb/d by the end of 2027, resulting in average prices of $51/$54 [6] Group 3: Refined Oil Price Risks - The impact of a peace agreement on refined oil prices is expected to be more direct and severe, with diesel margins projected to drop by $6-$8 per barrel if negotiations succeed [7][9] - The current risk premium for European diesel is estimated to include $7 per barrel above the physical fundamentals, indicating a significant adjustment could occur if sanctions are lifted and shipping costs normalize [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Goldman Sachs recommends shorting the Brent crude oil calendar spread from Q3 2026 to December 2028, reflecting a view on oversupply in 2026 [10] - Oil producers are advised to hedge against price declines in 2026, while consumers should consider the potential price drop in 2026 as an opportunity to hedge against future price increases starting in 2028 [10]

Group 1 - OPEC and its allies have decided to accelerate oil production, increasing output by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, significantly higher than previous months' targets [2] - The increase in production aims to respond to U.S. President Trump's calls for lower fuel costs, which may benefit consumers but could hurt U.S. shale oil producers and OPEC members [1][5] - Despite the announced increase, actual supply may be lower due to pressure on overproducing countries to adhere to quotas, with some nations like Kazakhstan still exceeding their limits [2][3] Group 2 - The global oil supply-demand balance is expected to change, with OPEC predicting that new supply will still find demand, although skepticism exists regarding the sustainability of this outlook [3] - Recent declines in Brent crude prices, down approximately 11% over two weeks, indicate that traders are not fully convinced of the urgency for new supply [3] - The increase in production could negatively impact U.S. oil companies, including major players like ExxonMobil, as drilling activity is expected to fall below initial plans [5][6] Group 3 - OPEC+ officials have indicated that production increases can be adjusted based on market conditions, but failure to manage supply could lead to further price declines [3][6] - Saudi Arabia requires oil prices above $90 per barrel to maintain government spending, and the current economic transformation plan may lead to budget cuts if prices remain low [5][6] - The strong summer demand is cited as a reason for optimism in the market, with U.S. crude inventories declining and diesel stocks significantly reduced [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by OPEC+ to accelerate oil production is expected to exacerbate global oil supply surplus in the second half of the year, responding to U.S. President Trump's call to lower fuel prices while putting price pressure on oil-producing countries [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ has decided to restore 548,000 barrels per day of production starting in August, significantly higher than the previous increase of 411,000 barrels per day from May to July [7]. - The International Energy Agency has predicted a global oil surplus of 1.5% over consumption in the fourth quarter, raising skepticism about OPEC's ability to meet demand with the new production levels [3]. - Despite the increase in production, actual supply impacts may be less than expected due to pressure on overproducing countries to adhere to quotas [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Oil prices in London have dropped by 11% over the past two weeks, indicating that traders do not see an urgent need for increased production despite geopolitical tensions [6]. - The U.S. key oil storage hub in Cushing has seen a continuous decline in crude oil inventories, which has not yet shown signs of oversupply [2]. - Analysts suggest that unless there is a visible increase in inventories, the path for oil prices to decline further is not clear [7]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The price drop could severely impact the U.S. oil industry, with shale oil executives expecting a significant reduction in drilling activity by 2025 due to weak oil prices [8]. - Saudi Arabia's economic transformation plan requires oil prices to remain above $90 per barrel, and ongoing fiscal pressures may lead to further supply cuts if the situation persists [8]. - OPEC+ officials have indicated that the production increase plan can be paused or reversed based on market conditions, highlighting the flexibility in their strategy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to face downward price risks in the next 6-12 months due to an anticipated increase in supply and potential oversupply conditions [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to exacerbate supply surplus later this year, putting pressure on global oil prices [1] - The increase in oil production is believed to find buyers in the short term, as indicated by Saudi Arabia's decision to raise oil prices [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite the recent acceleration in production by OPEC, the global oil market is nearing a state of oversupply as winter approaches [1] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that while the oil market is currently tight, rising risks such as ongoing trade tensions could lead to a less tight market in the future, impacting prices negatively [1]

金十数据5月12日讯，受中美贸易会谈影响，油价上涨。高盛分析师在一份报告中表示，尽管受贸易政 策乐观情绪的影响，油价已从近期低点部分回升，但布伦特和WTI原油的价格可能会进一步小幅下跌， 在2025年剩余时间里，均价分别为每桶60美元和56美元，该预测基于以下假设：欧佩克在7月最后一次 增加供应，不包括欧佩克、俄罗斯和美国页岩油在内的全球供应增长强劲，需求放缓，但美国避免了经 济衰退。高盛表示，大量闲置产能和对经济衰退的担忧加剧，使油价的中期风险偏向下行。 高盛：油价的中期风险偏向下行 ...