库尔德油田遇袭及欧盟新制裁推升油价 金十数据7月18日讯，受伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区油田遭无人机袭击以及欧盟针对俄罗斯能源部门实施新 制裁引发的供应中断担忧提振，油价上涨。欧盟外交政策负责人卡拉斯称，欧盟的新制裁措施包括禁止 北溪管道和下调油价上限。与此同时，据库尔德斯坦石油工业协会称，对库尔德油田的袭击已导致每日 超过20万桶的产量中断。油价也受到短期基本面的支撑，这些基本面显示本季度市场将相当紧张。三菱 日联的Soojin Kim表示："尽管欧佩克+正在稳步放松供应限制，但原油和柴油的近期合约仍处于现货溢 价状态，这表明供应受限。" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy and chemical commodities market on July 15, 2025, showed a trend of fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy adjustments [1][2][5]. - Crude oil prices dropped on Monday. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a price decline. Although Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, the market is still cautious about future policies [1]. - For fuel oil, the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The LU - FU spread reached a high for the year, but the medium - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil still exists [1][2]. - The asphalt market's short - term supply decreased, and although the rainy weather affected the terminal construction, the actual demand still had support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - In the polyester market, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - For methanol, the load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved. The price will return to a fluctuating trend [4]. - The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5]. - The PVC market price declined, and the corporate start - up rate decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the market's upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC2508 all declined. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue was seen as a negative signal. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025. The price will fluctuate, and future policies need to be monitored [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Monday. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. It will follow the cost of crude oil and fluctuate. The LU - FU spread has widened, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt rose on Monday. The adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX rose on Monday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber remained unchanged, and the price of NR decreased. The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol will return to a fluctuating trend. The load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the demand for agricultural films will increase seasonally [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC decreased. The corporate start - up rate decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [6]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on countries buying Russian products if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement within 50 days, causing the oil price to decline [8]. - Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, but kept the forecast for 2026 unchanged [8]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [10][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][29][30]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][45][49]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [65][66]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows the cash flow and production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term oil price will fall and fluctuate, with the short - term operating range of SC2508 crude oil between 515 and 525, and long - term observation is recommended. The market's reaction to Trump's threat of imposing a 100% tariff on Russia was relatively calm as the 50 - day buffer period provided sufficient negotiation time. Meanwhile, the EU's warning of counter - measures in the trade dispute has increased concerns about the demand side of crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The EU accused the US of resisting a trade agreement, and Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on Russia. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025 due to supply interruption risks, falling OECD oil inventories, and Russian production cuts. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 14, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $72.33 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $72.01 per barrel, with a basis of 13.96 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 4 increased by 7.128 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.6 million barrels), the EIA inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.071 million barrels), and the Cushing area inventory increased by 0.464 million barrels. As of July 14, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.517 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 8, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The EU accused the US of resisting a trade agreement to avoid punitive tariffs threatened by Trump starting from August 1. Trump said he was open to further discussions, and EU officials will go to the US for negotiations. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days, and announced an agreement to transport weapons to Ukraine with NATO. The market reaction was calm [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense, and Iran and Israel have ceased fire [6]. - **Market driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up the price, and mid - to long - term prices await the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $68.80 to $68.30, a decrease of 0.73%; WTI crude oil decreased from $67.00 to $62.36, a decrease of 6.93%; SC crude oil increased from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%; Oman crude oil increased from $68.70 to $69.78, an increase of 1.57% [7]. - **Spot market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $71.28 to $70.91, a decrease of 0.52%; WTI decreased from $67.00 to $66.50, a decrease of 0.75%; Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.84 to $70.03, an increase of 0.27%; Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $66.72 to $67.07, an increase of 0.52%; Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.70 to $69.85, an increase of 0.22% [9]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI crude oil**: As of July 8, the net long position decreased by 25,319 to 209,374 [16]. - **Brent crude oil**: As of July 8, the net long position increased by 55,630 to 222,347 [19].

| 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月10日 | 7月11日 | 7 10日 | 7月11日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 70.36 | 68.64 | 1.72 | 2.5% | POY150/48价格 | 0 | 0.0% | 布伦特原油(9月) | 6645 | 6645 | 美元/桶 | 1.88 | 2.8% | FDY150/96价格 | 0 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.45 | 66.57 | 6955 | 0.0% | 6955 | | | -7 | 0 | CFR日本石脑油 | -1.2% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | 0.0% | 591 | 7910 | 584 | -5 | -7 | 美元/吨 ...

智利是全球最大的铜生产国，目前正面临水资源短缺的问题，导致产量放缓。普华永道表示，到2035 年，为芯片行业提供水资源的17个国家中，大多数都将面临干旱的风险。 普华永道表示，如果材料创新不能适应气候变化，而且受影响的国家没有开发更安全的水源，风险只会 随着时间的推移而增加。 上一次全球芯片短缺是由于疫情引发的需求激增，同时又伴随着工厂停工，导致汽车行业陷入瘫痪，并 导致其他依赖芯片的行业的生产线停摆。 普华永道项目负责人格伦·伯姆在报告中援引美国商务部的数据称："这导致美国经济的GDP增长率下降 了整整一个百分点，德国下降了2.4%。" 普华永道表示，中国、澳大利亚、秘鲁、巴西、美国、刚果民主共和国、墨西哥、赞比亚和蒙古的铜矿 开采商也将受到影响，全球所有芯片制造地区都面临风险。 每个芯片电路中数十亿根细小的导线都由铜制成。即使正在研究其他替代品，目前也没有任何材料能与 铜的价格和性能相媲美。 路透社7月8日报道：咨询公司普华永道（PwC）周二在一份针对商业领袖的报告中表示，到2035年，全 球约32%的半导体产量可能面临与气候变化相关的铜供应中断，比现在的水平增加四倍。 报告称："到2050年，无论世界各 ...

智通财经APP获悉，咨询公司普华永道(PwC)周二在一份面向企业领导者的报告中指出，到2035年，全 球约32%的半导体生产可能会因气候变化面临铜供应中断问题，这一比例是目前水平的四倍。 全球最大的铜生产国智利，已经在应对水资源短缺问题，而这正导致其铜产量放缓。普华永道表示，到 2035年，为芯片行业供应铜的17个主要国家中，大部分都将面临干旱风险。 上一次全球芯片短缺，是由疫情引发的需求激增，同时工厂停工导致的。这一短缺严重冲击了汽车行 业，也使其他依赖芯片的行业生产线陷入停滞。 普华永道项目负责人格伦·伯姆在报告中引用美国商务部的数据称："芯片短缺导致美国经济的国内生产 总值(GDP)增长减少了整整一个百分点，德国则减少了2.4%。" 智利和秘鲁已经采取措施，通过提高采矿效率和建设海水淡化厂来保障供水。普华永道认为，这是值得 借鉴的做法，但对于那些无法利用大量海水资源的国家来说，这可能并非可行的解决方案。 普华永道估计，如今智利25%的铜产量面临供应中断风险，十年内这一比例将升至75%，到2050年，这 一比例将达到90%至100%。 铜被用于制造芯片电路中数十亿根细小的导线。尽管人们正在研究替代材料，但 ...

全球半导体行业正面临一场新的供应链危机威胁。由于干旱加剧导致关键原材料铜的供应正面临风险。 根据普华永道周二发布的报告，到2035年，与气候变化相关的铜供应中断风险，将影响全球32%的半导 体产能，这一比例是当前水平的四倍。 报告指出，影响铜加工的干旱是造成供应风险的主要因素。智利作为全球最大铜生产国，已经在与影响 生产的水资源短缺问题作斗争。 普华永道预测，到2050年，每个国家约有一半的铜供应都将面临风险，无论全球碳减排速度如何都无法 避免这一趋势。而风险等级将从2035年的32%进一步上升，到2050年将达到42%至58%之间。 智利和秘鲁已采取措施保障水源供应，包括提高采矿效率和建设海水淡化厂。普华永道认为这些做法值 得借鉴，但对于无法获得大型海水资源的国家来说，这可能并非可行的解决方案。 如果材料创新无法适应气候变化，且受影响国家无法开发更安全的水源供应，这一风险只会随时间推移 而加剧。普华永道预测，到2050年，无论全球减排速度如何，约有一半国家的铜供应都将面临风险。 无一芯片制造地区幸免！干旱成主要威胁 铜供应中断的风险或将波及全球所有主要芯片制造地区。普华永道报告显示，来自澳大利亚、秘鲁、巴 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in oil prices due to reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran [1][2][4] - As of the latest reports, SC crude oil futures fell over 8%, with other oil products like fuel oil and LPG also experiencing notable declines [1] - The market is reacting to the potential for increased U.S. oil production as President Trump encourages the energy sector to ramp up drilling to stabilize prices [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions express differing views on the future of oil prices, with some predicting a return to fundamental pricing if geopolitical tensions ease, while others foresee continued volatility due to ongoing conflicts [3][4] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is expected to influence production decisions, with speculation that Saudi Arabia may continue to increase output amid market share competition [2][3] - The current geopolitical situation remains fluid, with analysts noting that any missteps could lead to renewed tensions and impact oil prices significantly [2][4]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant decline on June 23, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling by $5.33 to $68.51 per barrel, a drop of 7.22%, and Brent crude decreasing by $5.53 to $71.48 per barrel, a decline of 7.18% [1] - The market's initial concerns about a potential disruption in Middle Eastern energy supplies due to U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities were alleviated as Iran's response was deemed relatively restrained [1] - Analysts suggest that the market sentiment has shifted from tension to cautious observation, although risks such as the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remain [1] Group 2 - The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the U.S. has significantly heightened supply risks in the oil and liquefied natural gas markets, with concerns about Iran potentially attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, with reports of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran, although Iranian officials have stated that no agreement has been reached yet [2]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. agricultural futures have experienced a widespread decline, with soybean futures leading the drop due to concerns over supply disruptions and weak demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - All U.S. agricultural futures are down, indicating a bearish trend across the sector [1] - Soybean futures are particularly affected, suggesting significant market volatility and potential for further declines [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The market is facing dual pressures from supply interruption worries and a lack of demand, which are contributing to the downward price movement [1] - The interplay between these factors raises questions about future price trajectories for agricultural commodities [1]