在美国宣布对俄罗斯最大的几家石油公司实施制裁后，国际油价飙升，这一举动威胁到了这个全球顶级产油国的供应。 布伦特原油价格正从周一触及的五个月低点反弹。周四，WTI原油、布伦特原油双双大涨超4%，创下自6月13日以色列与伊朗冲突爆发以来的最大涨幅。 由于有迹象表明最近的抛售过度以及美国库存减少，期货价格也出现上涨，WTI原油期货日内一度暴涨6%。 可以肯定的是，俄罗斯在规避制裁方面经验丰富，其最终影响尚不明确。尽管西方实施了一系列限制，该国的海运原油出货量近期仍创下29个月新高。例 如，由俄罗斯石油公司支持的印度炼油商纳亚拉能源公司（Nayara Energy），可能仍是该国原油的一个出口渠道。 美国将俄罗斯石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）和卢克石油（Lukoil）列入黑名单，引发了市场担忧，担心主要买家印度将放弃与莫斯科的交易。 此举出台之际，全球供应似乎相当充裕，因为欧佩克+内外的产油国在需求增长放缓的迹象下纷纷增产。如果印度真的大幅削减采购，那么问题就将变成是 否有其他国家愿意填补这一空白。 印度炼油厂高管表示，这些限制将使得交易几乎无法继续。 Rystad Energy地缘政治分析主管Jorge ...

Core Insights - The current commodities market, particularly for copper, is experiencing supply tightness, which is influencing spot prices to rise above futures prices, indicating backwardation [1][2][14] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) operates under a duty unpaid contract structure, which allows for a global baseline price unaffected by tariffs, contrasting with the duty paid prices seen in New York [3][4] - There is a medium-term demand driver for copper across various applications, but current price actions are primarily influenced by supply-side disruptions [6][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions have been noted, including tragic incidents affecting the supply chain, highlighting its fragility [7] - Despite a growing Chinese economy, the demand for copper has not matched previous levels, leading to a surplus in the market [8][9] - The establishment of delivery warehouses in Hong Kong aims to facilitate the arbitrage between short-term supply and medium-term bullish expectations [10] Market Structure and Trading Opportunities - The LME is focusing on enhancing transparency and diversity in supply chains by introducing new brands from various regions [17] - There is a conversation around the need for the West to reinvest in smelting capacity to ensure supply chain diversity [18] - The LME has introduced reports to improve market visibility, such as the off warrant stock report, to democratize trading [21] Speculation and Market Governance - The LME is committed to enhancing market transparency to prevent speculative manipulation, although concerns about price manipulation in the copper market persist [19][22] - The governance of the LME copper contract is viewed as robust, with ongoing efforts to shine a light on broader market activities [22][23]

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The Aluminum Monthly Metal Index (MMI) has remained stable, with a mild increase of 0.5% from September to October, indicating a rising trend in aluminum prices supported by various factors [1] - Following a significant fire at Novelis' Oswego plant, which produces about 40% of the aluminum sheets for the automotive industry, the overall outlook for U.S. aluminum prices has changed, with Midwest premiums reaching a historical high of $0.77 per pound as of October 6 [2][3] - The LME three-month aluminum price increased by 2.61% last month, reaching its highest level since March, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices among other base metals [6] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - The fire at Novelis has severely weakened U.S. aluminum production capacity, with the plant expected to remain offline until early next year, impacting the automotive supply chain significantly [2] - U.S. aluminum imports have been declining, with a 3.69% decrease in aluminum sheet imports from February to August compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to domestic supply tightness [4] - Overall, aluminum product imports have decreased by 10.17%, indicating that the U.S. remains a net importer of aluminum, necessitating overseas supply to meet demand [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The imposition of tariffs has intensified the impact of supply disruptions on the market, leading buyers to increasingly seek domestic producers for raw materials [5] - Despite the current upward trend in aluminum prices, ongoing inflationary pressures and a softening demand environment may challenge the sustainability of this trend in the coming months [6][7]

铜价攀升至一年多来的最高水平，投资者正考量全球供应中断的影响，以及降息有望提振这一工业金属 需求的前景。伦敦金属交易所的铜基准期货价格突破每吨 10,500 美元，为 2024 年 5 月以来首次。自由 港 - 麦克莫兰公司（Freeport-McMoRan Inc.）宣布其印尼格拉斯伯格（Grasberg）大型铜矿进入不可抗 力状态，这只是近期从南美到非洲一系列供应受阻事件中的最新一起 —— 这些事件为铜价上涨提供了 支撑。与此同时，美国民间就业数据进一步强化了市场对美联储将实施降息的预期。ADP发布的就业报 告显示，9 月私人部门就业人数意外下降。由于美国政府停摆可能导致其他就业数据延迟发布，此次 ADP 报告的重要性进一步提升。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇9月25日｜港股市场有色金属概念股全线上涨，其中，中国大冶有色金属涨超12%，洛阳钼业涨 超11%创历史新高，江西铜业股份涨近8%，金力永磁涨超5%，紫金矿业涨超4%，赣锋锂业涨超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 √ | 最新价 | 总市值 | 年初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | 12.50% | 0.063 | 11.27亿 | 31.25% | | 03993 | 洛阳铝业 | 11.01% | 13.910 | 2975.95 Z | 179.76% | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | 7.98% | 26.780 | 927.32 Z | 128.95% | | 06680 | 金力永磁 | 5.71% | 22.200 | 303.8亿 | 189.09% | | 02899 | 紫金矿业 | 4.59% | 31.000 | 8239.05亿 | 128.01% | | 01772 | 赣锋锂V | 3.35% | 38.860 | 799.4377 | 94.93% | | 09 ...

库尔德油田遇袭及欧盟新制裁推升油价 金十数据7月18日讯，受伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区油田遭无人机袭击以及欧盟针对俄罗斯能源部门实施新 制裁引发的供应中断担忧提振，油价上涨。欧盟外交政策负责人卡拉斯称，欧盟的新制裁措施包括禁止 北溪管道和下调油价上限。与此同时，据库尔德斯坦石油工业协会称，对库尔德油田的袭击已导致每日 超过20万桶的产量中断。油价也受到短期基本面的支撑，这些基本面显示本季度市场将相当紧张。三菱 日联的Soojin Kim表示："尽管欧佩克+正在稳步放松供应限制，但原油和柴油的近期合约仍处于现货溢 价状态，这表明供应受限。" ...