航运日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号： Z0018607 联系方式： :huangying_qh1@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 6'818'T | -39.1 | -2.88% | 25,779.0 | -34.29% | 54,409.0 | 0.10% | | EC2512 | 1,643.9 | -52.8 | -3.11% | 6.599.0 | -9.47 ...

Company Overview - Fujian Highton Development Co., Ltd. is focused on domestic coastal and international bulk cargo shipping services, having developed a strong market competitiveness in the domestic private bulk shipping sector [12][14]. - The company has seen its self-operated fleet in overseas shipping areas grow by over 300% since its listing, indicating significant expansion in its operational capabilities [14]. Industry Context - The shipping industry plays a crucial role in supporting economic development and national strategies, handling approximately 95% of China's foreign trade transportation [10][12]. - Recent government policies encourage the growth of shipping enterprises, promoting mergers and acquisitions to enhance competitiveness and operational scale [10][11]. - China's shipping industry is positioned for accelerated growth, supported by its leading global position in shipping fleet size and port infrastructure [12][13]. Fundraising Plan - The company plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, aiming to raise up to RMB 210 million, with net proceeds allocated to purchasing three new bulk carriers [29][30]. - The total investment for the project is estimated at RMB 269.4 million, with the company intending to enhance its fleet capacity and optimize its global shipping routes [29][30]. Share Issuance Details - The share issuance price is set at RMB 7.00 per share, which is not less than 80% of the average trading price over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing date [15][22]. - The issuance will not exceed 30% of the company's total share capital before the issuance, ensuring that control remains with the existing major shareholders [16][19]. Investor Relations - The main investors in this issuance are Daqing Investment and Dalan Investment, both controlled by the company's actual controller, Zeng Erbin, who plans to fully subscribe to the new shares [14][19]. - This move is expected to strengthen the company's control and operational stability, enhancing market confidence [14][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fujian Haitong Development Co., Ltd., anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a decrease of 60.78% to 69.04% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 75 million and 95 million yuan, a decrease of 147.25 million to 167.25 million yuan year-on-year [1][2]. - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 73.97 million and 93.97 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 54.36% to 64.07% [1][2]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a total profit of 242.76 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 242.25 million yuan [2]. - The earnings per share for 2024 were reported at 0.27 yuan, adjusted for a stock dividend distribution [2]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Change - The dry bulk shipping market faced severe challenges in the first half of 2025, with significant declines in shipping rates, as indicated by the average BDI, BCI, BPI, and BSI values dropping by 30% to 33% year-on-year [2]. - The company is undertaking maintenance and upgrades for both existing and new vessels, leading to increased short-term maintenance costs, which have not yet fully realized the benefits of the new capacity [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to adapt to market trends by seizing cyclical opportunities in the shipping market, expanding its controlled capacity, optimizing global route layouts, and enhancing operational efficiency to strengthen profitability [3].