Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy of Liu Zhihui, a fund manager at GF Fund, focusing on achieving absolute returns in various market conditions, particularly through the management of the GF Jiyuan Bond Fund, which has achieved positive returns for seven consecutive years [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Liu Zhihui's investment strategy is centered around absolute return opportunities, avoiding extreme relative rankings, and aiming for positive returns regardless of market conditions [2]. - The GF Jiyuan Bond Fund has maintained a cumulative return rate in the top 20% of the market since February 2020, with a probability of achieving positive returns over the past year exceeding 98% [1][2]. - The investment framework consists of three main components: "Dao, Fa, Shu," reflecting a combination of strong and weak investment strategies developed over Liu's career [3][4]. Group 2: Risk Management - Liu emphasizes proactive risk management, focusing on preemptive measures rather than reactive ones, utilizing strategies such as trend-following, value investing, and position management [2][4]. - A three-tiered warning system for drawdowns is established within the fixed income team, allowing for timely adjustments to positions in response to market conditions [2][6]. - The approach includes avoiding long-term holdings of declining assets and ensuring investments have a safety margin and favorable potential returns [2][4]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - Liu's investment decisions are adaptable to changing market conditions, as demonstrated during the significant market fluctuations in 2022, where he shifted strategies based on macroeconomic scenarios [3][6]. - The GF Jiyuan Bond Fund will continue to apply the same absolute return focus as it transitions to the new GF Jihui Bond Fund, aiming for stable net value growth in various market environments [3][6]. - Liu's strategy includes dynamic adjustments to asset allocation, such as increasing exposure to high-growth sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals during market downturns, while also managing bond positions to mitigate interest rate risks [6].

Market Outlook - The current market is characterized as a structural bull market rather than a broad-based rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark. Recent pullbacks have been observed in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI, indicating increased rotation between sectors and heightened difficulty in generating profits [1][2]. Investment Strategy - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, avoiding concentration in a single asset class. This includes a mix of equities, bonds, and commodities (such as gold and oil) to mitigate risks during market downturns [2][3]. Asset Allocation - Effective asset allocation requires timing, positioning, and appropriate proportions across different assets. For average investors, achieving this independently can be challenging, thus engaging professional investment institutions for fund combinations is advisable. For conservative investors, options like "fixed income plus" products are available, with varying equity and bond ratios to meet different risk appetites [3][4]. Timing Strategy - Timing is one of the most challenging aspects of investing, with low success rates for both retail and professional investors. The fund manager Liu Zhihui has demonstrated effective timing in managing the Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund, notably reducing equity exposure during market downturns and increasing convertible bond allocations during favorable conditions [4][7]. Sector Selection - The Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund has successfully capitalized on structural opportunities by focusing on specific sectors. For instance, a significant allocation to the coal sector was made, which accounted for 28.3% of the equity allocation in mid-2021, reflecting a strategic sector bias that contributed to the fund's performance [9][10]. Stock Selection - The fund manager has shown a distinctive approach in stock selection, maintaining positions in leading companies within their sectors. For example, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company was consistently among the top holdings, achieving a maximum price fluctuation of 205.77% during its holding period [16][17]. Performance Metrics - The Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund has demonstrated resilience, achieving positive returns even during market downturns. For instance, in 2021, the fund recorded a return of 7.96% while the broader market indices declined significantly [12][14]. Conclusion - The experience and strategic capabilities of the fund manager in navigating macroeconomic cycles and market conditions highlight the potential benefits of professional management in achieving stable returns through diversified asset allocation. The Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund, managed by Liu Zhihui, is positioned as a noteworthy option for investors seeking both stability and growth opportunities in a fluctuating market environment [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Zhihui emphasizes a rational approach to investment amidst market volatility, focusing on macroeconomic cycles and industry allocation to achieve steady returns [2][3] Investment Philosophy - Liu's investment framework consists of three core elements: understanding macro cycles, assessing odds, and respecting market signals [3] - The investment philosophy includes "Investment Way," "Investment Method," and "Investment Technique," focusing on market trends, macro and industry analysis, and specific trading strategies [4] Multi-Asset Framework - Liu's investment strategy spans fixed income, equities, and convertible bonds, aiming for absolute returns through flexible allocation and odds thinking [5] - In bond investment, Liu adjusts duration and leverage based on macro analysis, credit environment, and market sentiment [6] Stock and Convertible Bond Strategy - Liu captures industry trends and cyclical turning points through sector rotation and concentrated allocation, focusing on both intrinsic value and market pricing signals [6] - For convertible bonds, Liu only allocates when they exhibit characteristics of downside protection and upside potential, guided by macroeconomic fundamentals [6] Recent Market Actions - In response to market adjustments, Liu increased exposure to sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI, while also considering undervalued sectors such as machinery and real estate [7] - Liu maintains a neutral stance on the bond market, focusing on short-duration government bonds and high-rated credit bonds due to low yield levels [7]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a bull market is increasing as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3700 points, but stock selection remains challenging due to the need for safety margins and rapid industry rotation [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - Guangfa JiYuan Bond Fund has achieved positive annual returns in all eight years since its establishment in January 2017, with a maximum drawdown controlled within 6%, significantly better than the average of 10.88% for similar funds [2] - The fund's five-year return rate is 25.37%, ranking in the top 15% of its category [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund manager, Liu Zhihui, employs a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches for asset allocation, maintaining a stable stock investment ratio of 15%-20% over the past five years [2] - In bond investments, the focus is primarily on high-grade credit bonds, with an average duration of less than three years, but can be extended during favorable market conditions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Liu Zhihui holds a relatively optimistic view for the A-share market in the second half of the year, believing it is transitioning from "strong reality, weak expectations" to positive expectations, which is beneficial for large-cap stocks [3] - The preferred allocation strategy includes a balanced approach, focusing on sectors such as overseas expansion, resources, large financials, leading manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, selecting competitive companies with market share expansion and valuation protection [3]