记者丨贺泓源 徐鸿儒 编辑丨陶力 打响咖啡9块9战争的库迪提前收兵了。 从2026年2月1日开始，库迪咖啡仅在特价专区保留3—7款产品延续该低价，其余产品恢复11.9 —16.9元的常规售价，部分核心单品涨幅30%—60%，例如咸法酪香草拿铁从9.9元升至15.9 元。 为何结束？ 客观上，此次库迪收兵远早于预期。 在2024年5月24日，库迪宣布了一项为期三年的促销活动，即"全场9.9元促销"。 甚至，库迪在9.9元战争中如鱼得水。库迪咖啡首席策略官李颖波告诉21世纪经济报道记者， 从2024年5月份开始，库迪公司已经实现盈利。 基于全产业链的降本，叠加低价原奶，库迪咖啡在保证产品质量基础上，成本被压得很低。乃 至，库迪杯套都是自己做，曾经的天然糖浆价格由上百元跌至个位数。 同时，库迪还调整了其他配套活动。譬如，新店首月券从6.9元涨至8.8元，邀新奖励中的新用 户礼券从8.8元提至9.9元，仅保留外卖平台补贴联动。 对此，库迪向21世纪经济报道记者确认，部分产品延续特价9.9元不限量，全线产品持续参与 外卖平台各类补贴活动。 需要注意的是，这一步是不容易的。 据21世纪经济报道记者了解，曾经在9.9元战争 ...

Group 1: Market Competition - The competition in the food delivery market is intensifying, with JD.com reporting nearly 200 restaurant brands achieving over 1 million sales on its platform within four months [1] - JD.com has launched a "Double Hundred Plan," investing over 10 billion yuan to support more brands in reaching 1 million sales [2] - Taobao and Ele.me announced a daily order count exceeding 80 million, with Taobao's flash purchase program starting a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan [3] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The restaurant industry is facing significant challenges, with approximately 46.4% of new restaurants expected to close by 2024 [4] - The average store efficiency has declined across most categories, leading to an increase in the number of closures to 4.09 million in 2024, with a closure rate of 61.2% [4] - Major brands like KFC and Pizza Hut are experiencing a continuous decline in average transaction value [6] Group 3: Pricing Strategies - The current price war is primarily focused on low average transaction value markets, where discounts are more pronounced [8] - A national restaurant brand founder stated that to survive, businesses must prioritize cost-effectiveness, leading to lower average transaction values [7] - The aggressive pricing strategies, while intensifying competition, provide temporary relief to restaurants through subsidies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese food delivery market is experiencing "involutionary" competition, where platforms and merchants are increasing investments without significant improvements in overall market efficiency, leading to resource misallocation and waste [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery industry exhibits typical network economy characteristics, where larger platforms can reduce average delivery costs through increased order and rider density, but this leads to a "subsidy arms race" among competitors [2][3]. - Recent estimates indicate that daily order volume in the food delivery market has peaked at 140 million, significantly up from 100 million year-on-year, with a notable shift towards lower-priced items like beverages [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Theories - The "lemon market" theory explains how information asymmetry leads consumers to rely on price as a primary decision factor, resulting in a market distortion where low-quality offerings prevail [4][5]. - The "disease of cost disease" theory highlights how excessive reliance on subsidies distorts market competition, leading to resource misallocation and inhibiting innovation and quality improvements [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges for Small Merchants - Small merchants face a "prisoner's dilemma" in the price war, where participating may yield short-term sales but create long-term low-price expectations, making it difficult to return to reasonable pricing [7][8]. - The competitive pressure forces small merchants to cut costs, often compromising quality and service, which can damage brand reputation and customer loyalty over time [7][8]. Group 4: Social Costs - The negative impacts of "involutionary" competition extend beyond business, leading to irrational consumption patterns and potential health issues due to increased intake of sugary beverages [9]. - Employment quality is declining as businesses reduce labor costs, affecting workers' rights and job security, while overall market resources are wasted in unproductive competition [9][10]. Group 5: Path to Resolution - To break the cycle of "involutionary" competition, the industry needs to focus on infrastructure improvements and regulatory frameworks that promote sustainable practices rather than relying solely on price subsidies [10][11]. - Enhancing operational efficiency through better logistics and inventory management, along with fostering innovation and quality service, is essential for long-term industry health [10][11].

Group 1 - Kudi Coffee is experiencing rapid growth in orders due to a new round of subsidies from delivery platforms, with sales on Ele.me increasing nearly tenfold and surpassing 40 million orders on JD.com [1] - The price of Kudi Coffee products has dropped significantly, with prices as low as 1.99 yuan for certain drinks on Ele.me, benefiting from the already low base price of 9.9 yuan [1] - Kudi Coffee has over 10,000 stores nationwide, making it easier for promotional activities to be implemented widely [1] Group 2 - Kudi has announced an extension of its store subsidy policy until December 31, 2028, and introduced new subsidies for high rent and low cup volume stores, with potential single-cup subsidies exceeding the current maximum of 14 yuan [2] - The company has been profitable since May 2024, indicating strong financial health [3] Group 3 - The ongoing delivery battle is leading to a redistribution of the restaurant market, suggesting significant changes in the competitive landscape [4]