【文/观察者网 王恺雯】"美国会赢得AI，却输掉战争吗？"英国《金融时报》12月13日以此为题刊登文 章，给美国当前的人工智能（AI）热潮泼下一盆冷水。 文章作者、拜登政府时期担任白宫科技与竞争政策特别助理的吴修铭（Tim Wu），对美国全面押注AI 发出警告，指出与中国就这一未来关键技术展开"末日之战"的想法，既是幻觉，也是硅谷的游说套路。 相较之下，中国虽然也在大力推动AI发展，但态度却克制、务实得多，也更注重多元布局。 文章指出，在过去一年时间里，美国主要科技公司在与AI相关的基础设施上投入了超过3500亿美元， 预计到2026年将超过4000亿美元。这一数字远远超过任何其他国家，包括中国，后者在AI方面的总投 资接近1000亿美元。 对于很多西方人来说，拥有足够大胆的公司和足够深厚的资本市场，从而在一场"烧钱竞赛"中占据主导 地位，或许令人感到安心。如果人工智能真如预言所说，是"统治一切的魔戒"，那么看起来西方似乎已 经把未来握在手中。 美国政府本可以对冲风险，但在特朗普执政时期，美国削减了对清洁能源投资的支持，使国家科技战略 看起来像是在一匹马身上下了很大的赌注。 文章认为，美国当下对AI的支出，是 ...

"真正迷恋AI的是美国。"作者写道，并指出，美国的投资动机既商业化，又带着某种神秘色彩，尤其体 现在对通用人工智能（AGI）和"奇点"（singularity）的追求上；人们强烈相信技术会持续呈指数级进 步，却忽视了这种情况在技术史上极为罕见。且越是深入探究，就越会发现，无论在AI的支持者中， 还是在末日论者中，相关观点都显得越来越脱离现实。 与此同时，美国科技行业高度集中，其近乎垄断的结构进一步放大了风险：当巨额资金掌握在极少数公 司手中时，集体盲从的可能性也随之上升。 【文/观察者网 王恺雯】"美国会赢得AI，却输掉战争吗？"英国《金融时报》12月13日以此为题刊登文 章，给美国当前的人工智能（AI）热潮泼下一盆冷水。 文章作者、拜登政府时期担任白宫科技与竞争政策特别助理的吴修铭（Tim Wu），对美国全面押注AI 发出警告，指出与中国就这一未来关键技术展开"末日之战"的想法，既是幻觉，也是硅谷的游说套路。 相较之下，中国虽然也在大力推动AI发展，但态度却克制、务实得多，也更注重多元布局。 文章指出，在过去一年时间里，美国主要科技公司在与AI相关的基础设施上投入了超过3500亿美元， 预计到2026年将超 ...

Core Insights - China has surpassed the United States in the global open-source AI model market, with Chinese teams accounting for 17% of open-source AI model downloads, compared to 15.8% from the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Open-Source AI Models - Open-source AI models allow developers to download, use, modify, and distribute AI models freely, which facilitates product development and research improvements [1][2] - Chinese technology companies are adopting a more open strategy, frequently releasing new models, while U.S. companies tend to follow a closed approach, releasing models less frequently [4][5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The DeepSeek and Alibaba Cloud's Qwen are among the most downloaded Chinese open-source models, with DeepSeek-R1 being particularly noted for its low cost and performance comparable to top U.S. models [2][4] - Despite U.S. export controls on chips, China continues to demonstrate strong talent and creativity in developing open-source models [4] Group 3: Market Trends - A significant portion of startups, estimated at 80%, are now using Chinese open-source models, indicating a shift in preference towards these models [4] - While proprietary models from U.S. companies generate higher revenues, open-source models are gaining traction for their adaptability and ease of use in various applications [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. has underestimated China in the ongoing trade, tariff, and technology wars, leading to failures in all three fronts [1][3][10] - The U.S. initially believed it could leverage its significant trade deficit to force concessions from China, but China's strategic responses, particularly in rare earths and soybeans, revealed the vulnerabilities in the U.S. position [3][5] - The trade war has not fundamentally harmed China's exports; instead, it has increased costs for American consumers, leading to higher inflation rates in the U.S. [5][9] Group 2 - The technology war has seen the U.S. struggle against China's advancements, particularly in AI, where China's cost-effective and rapidly iterating models are gaining traction among global developers [7][9] - U.S. politicians have attempted to restrict Chinese technology through bans and entity lists, but they have overlooked the essential factors driving innovation, such as data availability and application scenarios, where China holds significant advantages [7][9] - Investment sentiment is shifting, with U.S. investors recognizing the potential of Chinese innovation and economic dynamism, as evidenced by a reported 11.2% year-on-year increase in actual foreign investment in China [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's remarkable resilience and innovation in technology and manufacturing, showcasing its position as a global leader despite economic slowdowns [1][4][6]. Group 1: China's Technological and Manufacturing Dominance - China is the world's largest manufacturer and exporter, producing over two-thirds of global electric vehicles, four-fifths of photovoltaic components and battery cells, and approximately 60% of wind turbines [1][4]. - The country processes the majority of the world's rare earth materials, essential for various technologies from chips to military aircraft [1]. - China's industrial robot installations account for about half of the global total, with high-speed rail mileage and 5G base stations also representing over 70% and 50% of the global totals, respectively [4]. Group 2: Success Stories of Chinese Companies - Xiaomi, once seen as an imitator of Apple, has become one of China's most valuable companies with a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion and is set to launch its first electric vehicle in 2024 [4]. - Huawei has expanded from telecommunications equipment to producing automotive components, while Alibaba is developing AI inference chips for its AI models [5]. - The article highlights the importance of China's existing supply chain, infrastructure, and skilled workforce in supporting the rapid development of these companies [4][5]. Group 3: Open Source AI and Global Influence - The open-source movement in China's AI sector is flourishing, with major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Baidu releasing open-source AI models, which could enhance China's technological competitiveness and attract more developers [5][6]. - China holds 70% of global AI patent authorizations and leads in clean energy technology patent applications, indicating its growing influence in these fields [6]. Group 4: Implications for the U.S. and Global Dynamics - The article suggests that if the U.S. aims for re-industrialization, it must focus on supporting research, attracting talent, and removing regulatory barriers, while acknowledging its shortcomings in hardware and AI diversity [6][7]. - A warning is issued that if the U.S. continues to adopt a hostile stance towards China, it risks becoming more closed off and protectionist, potentially losing its status as a leading global power [7].

Group 1 - Nvidia led a $2 billion funding round for Reflection AI, investing $800 million and increasing the company's valuation to $8 billion [1] - Reflection AI aims to create an open-source AI model to compete with proprietary models like those from OpenAI and Google, addressing a perceived gap in the market [1][3] - The funding round occurred just seven months after a previous $130 million Series A round, highlighting a significant increase in valuation from approximately $545 million [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's investment strategy includes both open-source and closed-source AI models, ensuring a competitive edge in a diversifying technology landscape [2] - The collaboration between Nvidia and Reflection AI involves technical support, enhancing Reflection AI's computational efficiency and model performance [2] - The AI industry is witnessing a shift towards open-source models, with Reflection AI positioning itself as a challenger to established players [3] Group 3 - Reflection AI's CEO emphasizes the need for the U.S. to establish a competitive advantage in open-source AI, likening the current situation to a space race during the Cold War [3] - The company acknowledges the increasing demand for funding to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly evolving market [3] - Reflection AI's leadership is optimistic about the company's potential to grow into a major player, potentially surpassing current large-scale cloud service providers [3]