特别提示 微信机制调整，点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 美东时间2025年10月10日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 在其社交平台"真相社交"上发文称： 将从 2025年11月1日起 （或更早，具体将视中国的后续行动而定） ， 对 所有从中国进口的商品 加征 额外100%的关税 。并称这一税率" 远高于目前中方所支付的任何关税水平 "。 这一措施将叠加在现有关税（10%对等关税+20%芬太尼关税）基础上， 使总关税水平达到高达130%或更高 。 同时，特朗普表示，美国将对 "所有关键美国制造软件"（al l critical US-made software）实施严格的出口管制 ，禁止或限制这些软件向中国出口。此决定将同时影响 美产科学仪器软件及实验室管理软件 等产品。 在此消息影响下，市场反应剧烈，S&P500指数当日跌幅达-3.5%，在6个小时内损失2.5万亿美元。 此次表态的数小时前，特朗普曾威胁称，将对中国进口商品"大幅提高"关税，以此作为 对中国实施稀土出口新管制措 施的回应 。据统计，全球约70%的稀土矿产供应来自中国，这些资源对汽车、国防及 ...

Core Insights - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to restructure the global economic governance framework through high tariffs, dollar depreciation, debt swaps, multilateral currency negotiations, and security fees [2][3] - Experts at the seminar highlighted the implications of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" on China's position in multilateral currency negotiations and the industrial division of labor [3][4] Group 1: Expert Analysis - Professor Lin Guijun analyzed the reversal in manufacturing share during the US-China trade war and the connection between the US trade deficit and the dollar's status [3] - Professor Huang Jianzhong compared the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" with the 1985 Plaza Accord, warning of historical cyclical risks [3] - Professor Tong Jiadong discussed the structural challenges China may face if the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" is implemented [3] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - Professor Lu Yi suggested that China should shift from commodity exports to domestic demand and service consumption, while deepening institutional reforms and leveraging technological revolutions [3] - Professor Shen Guobing pointed out that the de-dollarization path implied by the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could impact the global reserve asset structure and have spillover effects on China's foreign exchange and capital markets [3][4] Group 3: New International Trade Order - Professor Sheng Bin emphasized that the "Mar-a-Lago multilateral agreement" is based on US unilateralism, which undermines the multilateral system [4] - Professor Qian Xuefeng analyzed the potential exclusion of China from multilateral currency negotiations and its implications [4] - Professor Xue Yi shared insights on the impact of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" on the status of "dollar hegemony" and China's response strategies [4] Group 4: Concluding Remarks - The experts collectively agreed on the necessity for China to enhance systematic research and strategic responses in light of the evolving global economic landscape and the advancing US strategic restructuring [5]

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the impact of the US-China trade war on soybean trade, particularly how China has prepared for potential decoupling from the US market [1][3]. - The US soybean exports to China were valued at $12.84 billion in 2024, representing about 8% of the total bilateral trade between the two countries, with over 60% of US soybean exports going to China [1]. - Following the announcement of new tariffs by Trump, China ceased purchasing soybeans from the US, leading to significant anxiety among US soybean producers [3]. Group 2 - The president of the American Soybean Association criticized the US tariff policy, stating that the soybean industry has not recovered from the impacts of the trade war during Trump's first term, and the current agricultural economy is even more vulnerable [5]. - During the period of new tariffs, China has ordered at least 40 shipments of soybeans from Brazil, totaling over 2.4 million tons, with the first shipments expected to arrive in May [5]. - A delegation from China's Ministry of Agriculture is set to attend a meeting in Brazil to discuss agricultural exports, including soybeans and beef, and how to address supply gaps caused by US tariffs [5][7]. Group 3 - China has been actively seeking to diversify its soybean supply sources, reducing its reliance on US imports from 34% in 2017 to 21% in 2024, despite increasing total soybean imports [7]. - In March 2024, prior to the announcement of tariff details, China suspended the export qualifications of three US soybean companies due to contamination issues, providing a buffer period for Chinese companies to prepare for the impending trade conflict [7]. - The proactive measures taken by China indicate that it has been preparing for the potential reality of decoupling from the US market, with the US soybean industry bearing the brunt of these changes [7].

中美关税冲突短期缓和 ——点评中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 2、双方在关税税率上达成较大幅度调降，表明双方对不希望出现贸易脱钩的极端情 况具有共识，关税冲突存在底线。由于谈判达成显著的实质性成果，市场风险偏好有 望短期缓和。 相关报告 3、联合声明强调"双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商"，表明除了税率调降， 双方也达成机制性进展，未来"日内瓦机制"下的 90 天谈判期十分关键。预计美方 将进一步对华展开要价，谈判可能从关税延申至市场开放（加大购买）、服务贸易（知 识产权）以及投资等领域。 4、考虑到特朗普多变的重商主义行事风格、中美意识形态矛盾以及中国经济更加深 入的结构性变化，双方达成类似第一阶段经贸协议的 2.0 版可能会经历一定的博弈过 程，能否在 90 天内达成进展，从而使双方关税不再次急剧转变，还需要进一步观察， 因此不能排除关税反复风险。未来特朗普政府仍有涵盖药品、半导体等领 ...

王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 邮箱：Wangwm@zhqh.com.cn 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.30 摘要 【宏观总结】大类资产，市场消化特朗普的反复无常，黄金冲高回落，基本金属等走高， 国内过剩产能品种弱势运行。海外经济，海外数据分化，美国消费回落，主要国家货币政 策整体保持流动性宽松，后续美国通胀风险较大。关税谈判方面，部分国家有所妥协。中 国经济，4月制造业PMI明显回落，工业企业利润数据好转，其他基建和制造业数据有所回 升，企业负债率、应收账款等数据不尽如人意。地产高频数据复苏缓慢，央行释放流动性 呵护。中央政治局会议政策有定力，为未来贸易全面脱钩留下余地。 宏观金银宏观月报： 对等关税扰动全球，海内外经济隐忧多，金价大幅波动 【关注】贸易脱钩扩大，国内复苏不及预期，美元流动性危机（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 资产价格逻辑分化 2 海外关税谈判反复，货币预期宽松 3 国内PMI数据回落，政策有定力 4 部分避险情绪退却，金价大幅调整 目录 资本市场 01 【金银逻辑】尽管短期可能出现技术性回调，但黄金长期上涨的核心逻辑（美元信用弱 化、央行持续购金、地缘风险及通胀预期）依然稳固。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid shift in the U.S. stance on tariffs against China, moving from extreme pressure to seeking negotiations, raising questions about the underlying motives and the future of the trade war [1][10]. Tariff Motivations - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as a means to reduce a trade deficit projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2024, viewing it as a loss to the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential revenue from "reciprocal tariffs" could amount to approximately $500 billion, which would help alleviate the federal government's debt burden [3]. - Long-term strategic goals include promoting the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and weakening competitors, although the effectiveness of these goals remains uncertain [4]. Trade Relations and Economic Impact - In 2024, China is expected to export around $480 billion to the U.S. while importing about $140 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $330 billion for China [6]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a "decoupling" of trade, significantly affecting both countries' economies, with the U.S. facing supply shortages and rising prices [7][8]. Consequences of Decoupling - The "decoupling" model has resulted in a significant reduction in U.S. imports from China, particularly in high-tech and resource products, leading to increased reliance on other countries like Canada for energy [7]. - The anticipated loss of tax revenue from tariffs due to reduced trade could constrain U.S. government finances, impacting its ability to support farmers and manage debt [8]. - The U.S. market is likely to experience supply shocks and inflation, with consumer goods prices expected to rise due to disrupted supply chains [8]. Negotiation Dynamics - The article suggests that the U.S. is eager to enter negotiations with China to address trade imbalances, particularly in energy and agricultural products [12][13]. - The negotiation process is expected to be complex and fraught with challenges, as past behaviors of the U.S. government indicate a tendency to revert to tariff increases during discussions [15]. - The U.S. aims to maximize its interests during negotiations, which may include unreasonable demands, while China is prepared to respond firmly and maintain its principles [18][19]. Economic Outlook - The article predicts that the U.S. economy may face stagnation and inflation due to the impacts of tariffs and the decoupling model, with potential recession risks in the latter half of the year [9][16]. - In contrast, China is expected to maintain stable growth despite facing some overcapacity and deflationary pressures, leveraging its strong manufacturing base and domestic market potential [16][17].