Group 1 - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1% and falling below 50,000 points, primarily affecting tourism and retail stocks [1][3] - Notable declines included Shiseido's stock, which fell 11%, and Pacific International Holdings, which saw an 8.9% drop, marking their largest single-day declines since April 2024 [1][3] - Major retail and tourism-related companies, such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Uniqlo's parent company Fast Retailing, also faced substantial stock price drops, with declines exceeding 5% [3] Group 2 - The downturn in the stock market is attributed to deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, with Chinese authorities issuing travel warnings to their citizens regarding travel to Japan [5][11] - Chinese tourists are crucial for Japan's tourism sector, accounting for nearly 20% of international visitors in 2024, with their spending representing 27% of total inbound consumption, amounting to approximately 2.1 trillion yen [7] - A significant reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36% for Japan, equating to an economic loss of about 2.2 trillion yen [7] Group 3 - Japan's economy is facing multiple challenges, including a 1.8% decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, largely due to decreased exports and a sharp drop in private residential investment [9] - Analysts suggest that the recent travel warnings from China threaten Japan's retail sales growth, particularly for companies like Shiseido and Uniqlo, which rely heavily on Chinese consumers [11] - The Japanese government has set an ambitious target to increase annual inbound tourist numbers to 60 million by 2030, but this goal is now uncertain due to escalating political tensions with China [15]

美国发起的对华关税战、贸易战、科技战，三场被寄予厚望的"围剿"，最终却换来了"三战三败"的结局。当华盛顿还在疑惑为何屡试不爽的大棒这次失灵 时，一批亲赴中国的美国商业巨头们，却看到了一个令他们坐立难安的真相。他们发现，最大的问题不是中国太强，而是美国从一开始就严重低估了自己的 对手。 时间回到2025年中美关税"休战"协议的谈判桌前。对一向以强硬姿态示人的特朗普政府而言，愿意坐下来并达成妥协，本身就是一个信号。这并非善意的体 现，而是形势所迫。 此前，美国挥舞关税大棒，自信地认为可以凭借每年数千亿美元的贸易逆差作为筹码，迫使中国让步。然而，中方的反击精准且有力。两张牌打出，直接击 中了美国的痛点。 第一张是稀土。作为现代高科技产业不可或缺的"维生素"，美国国防、航天、电子工业对稀土的依赖是战略级的。中国一旦收紧稀土出口，受影响的不仅仅 是几家企业，而是整个美国高科技产业链的安全。 第二张是大豆。停止进口美国大豆，直接冲击的是美国中西部的农业州，而这些州恰恰是特朗普重要的票仓。经济上的损失，最终会转化为实实在在的政治 压力。当农民的利益受损，选票就会动摇。 正是这两招，让华盛顿明白，关税战是一场相互伤害的游戏， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly focusing on President Trump's announcement of a potential 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, effective November 1, 2025, or earlier depending on China's actions [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Policy - President Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on all imports from China, which would increase the total tariff level to as high as 130% when combined with existing tariffs [1]. - This announcement follows China's recent implementation of export controls on rare earth materials, which are crucial for high-tech industries such as automotive, defense, and semiconductors [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of 3.5%, resulting in a loss of approximately $2.5 trillion in market value within six hours [3]. Group 3: Export Controls - The U.S. will impose strict export controls on all critical U.S.-made software, which will affect products such as scientific instruments and laboratory management software being exported to China [2].

Core Insights - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to restructure the global economic governance framework through high tariffs, dollar depreciation, debt swaps, multilateral currency negotiations, and security fees [2][3] - Experts at the seminar highlighted the implications of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" on China's position in multilateral currency negotiations and the industrial division of labor [3][4] Group 1: Expert Analysis - Professor Lin Guijun analyzed the reversal in manufacturing share during the US-China trade war and the connection between the US trade deficit and the dollar's status [3] - Professor Huang Jianzhong compared the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" with the 1985 Plaza Accord, warning of historical cyclical risks [3] - Professor Tong Jiadong discussed the structural challenges China may face if the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" is implemented [3] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - Professor Lu Yi suggested that China should shift from commodity exports to domestic demand and service consumption, while deepening institutional reforms and leveraging technological revolutions [3] - Professor Shen Guobing pointed out that the de-dollarization path implied by the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could impact the global reserve asset structure and have spillover effects on China's foreign exchange and capital markets [3][4] Group 3: New International Trade Order - Professor Sheng Bin emphasized that the "Mar-a-Lago multilateral agreement" is based on US unilateralism, which undermines the multilateral system [4] - Professor Qian Xuefeng analyzed the potential exclusion of China from multilateral currency negotiations and its implications [4] - Professor Xue Yi shared insights on the impact of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" on the status of "dollar hegemony" and China's response strategies [4] Group 4: Concluding Remarks - The experts collectively agreed on the necessity for China to enhance systematic research and strategic responses in light of the evolving global economic landscape and the advancing US strategic restructuring [5]

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the impact of the US-China trade war on soybean trade, particularly how China has prepared for potential decoupling from the US market [1][3]. - The US soybean exports to China were valued at $12.84 billion in 2024, representing about 8% of the total bilateral trade between the two countries, with over 60% of US soybean exports going to China [1]. - Following the announcement of new tariffs by Trump, China ceased purchasing soybeans from the US, leading to significant anxiety among US soybean producers [3]. Group 2 - The president of the American Soybean Association criticized the US tariff policy, stating that the soybean industry has not recovered from the impacts of the trade war during Trump's first term, and the current agricultural economy is even more vulnerable [5]. - During the period of new tariffs, China has ordered at least 40 shipments of soybeans from Brazil, totaling over 2.4 million tons, with the first shipments expected to arrive in May [5]. - A delegation from China's Ministry of Agriculture is set to attend a meeting in Brazil to discuss agricultural exports, including soybeans and beef, and how to address supply gaps caused by US tariffs [5][7]. Group 3 - China has been actively seeking to diversify its soybean supply sources, reducing its reliance on US imports from 34% in 2017 to 21% in 2024, despite increasing total soybean imports [7]. - In March 2024, prior to the announcement of tariff details, China suspended the export qualifications of three US soybean companies due to contamination issues, providing a buffer period for Chinese companies to prepare for the impending trade conflict [7]. - The proactive measures taken by China indicate that it has been preparing for the potential reality of decoupling from the US market, with the US soybean industry bearing the brunt of these changes [7].

Tariff Adjustments - Both parties agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 percentage points[2] - The U.S. will lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 10% within 90 days, while China's counter-tariffs will also drop to 10%[6] - The overall U.S. tariff on China could range from 40% to 50% when considering previous tariffs[6] Market Reactions - The significant tariff reductions indicate a consensus against extreme trade decoupling, potentially easing market risk appetite[2] - Following the announcement, U.S.-China stock index futures rose, the RMB appreciated, and the U.S. dollar index increased[6] Future Negotiations - A mechanism will be established for ongoing trade discussions, with a critical 90-day negotiation period ahead[3] - The U.S. is expected to push for further concessions from China, including market access and service trade improvements[7] Risks and Considerations - The potential for tariff fluctuations remains, influenced by Trump's unpredictable trade policies and ongoing ideological conflicts[8] - Specific tariffs on products like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may still be implemented as part of strategic supply chain adjustments[8] Overall Outlook - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding the potential for a "Phase 2" trade agreement, but emphasizes the need for close monitoring of developments[8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core logic for the long - term rise of gold (weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations) remains solid. Gold is expected to maintain a structural bull market. Short - term price adjustments are normal rather than a trend reversal, and gold has long - term allocation value [3]. - The US economy shows signs of potential stagflation, with issues such as a consumer confidence decline, inflation risks, and uncertainties in the labor market. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and the United States has weakened, especially in the service industry [19][33]. - The Chinese economy in April saw a decline in the PMI index, a slowdown in real - estate recovery, an increase in industrial enterprise profits, and a significant growth in exports in March, but there are still many challenges [60][67][74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Price Logic Differentiation - Bond market: The US Treasury yields have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude. The yields of Chinese government bonds have continued to decline, reflecting the expectation of loose monetary policy and the pressure of economic slowdown. The yields of Japanese government bonds are still loose under the YCC policy, and the British government bond yields are under pressure from trade tensions [9][13]. - Commodity market: Black commodities are generally weak, chemicals are in a weak - shock situation, non - ferrous metals are strong, gold has significant fluctuations, and agricultural products have different trends [16]. 2. Overseas Tariff Negotiations Are Repeated, and Monetary Expectations Are Loose - US economy: In April 2025, the US consumer market was in a "polarized" state. The inflation rate in March showed different trends, and the core inflation was sticky. The manufacturing and service industries showed mixed performance, the labor market had a "strong employment but weak confidence" feature, and the Fed's balance sheet was shrinking, with internal differences on the timing of interest rate cuts [19][24][33][36]. - Other countries' economies: Inflation rates in various countries are at different levels, and the manufacturing and service industries in Europe are under pressure. There are also differences in the monetary policies of central banks in various countries [22][30][33]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Multiple geopolitical conflicts have led to turmoil in the energy market, a refugee crisis, and intensified great - power games. There are also differences and progress in tariff negotiations among different regions [48][50]. 3. China's PMI Data Declines, and Policies Are Steady - PMI data: In April 2025, both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined. The supply and demand sides, external demand, and prices all showed weakening trends [60]. - Investment: From January to March 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased, with new and old infrastructure and manufacturing investment growing. The real - estate investment decline has converged, and the real - estate land market is not hot [63][67][87]. - Consumption: In the first quarter of 2025, domestic consumption showed a stable increase, with different performances in different fields [70]. - Exports: In March 2025, exports increased significantly, but there are potential risks in the future [74][77]. - Industrial enterprise profits: From January to March 2025, the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit margin was low, and the debt ratio was high [82]. 4. Some Risk - Aversion Sentiment Subsides, and Gold Prices Adjust Significantly - Gold market: In the week of April 25, 2025, the global gold market experienced a significant correction. The proportion of non - commercial long positions in gold decreased, the holdings of gold ETF funds changed, and the dollar rose while the US Treasury yields fell [107][110][113]. - Supply and demand of gold and silver: In the first quarter of 2025, the net inflow of global physical gold ETFs reached a new high since the first quarter of 2022. The global silver market is in a "tight balance" state, with industrial demand supporting the fundamentals [117][119]. - Outlook for gold: Gold has entered a bull market cycle driven by the weakening of the US dollar credit, risk - aversion demand, and central - bank gold purchases. The medium - and long - term upward trend is clear, but there may be short - term fluctuations [121][122].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid shift in the U.S. stance on tariffs against China, moving from extreme pressure to seeking negotiations, raising questions about the underlying motives and the future of the trade war [1][10]. Tariff Motivations - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as a means to reduce a trade deficit projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2024, viewing it as a loss to the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential revenue from "reciprocal tariffs" could amount to approximately $500 billion, which would help alleviate the federal government's debt burden [3]. - Long-term strategic goals include promoting the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and weakening competitors, although the effectiveness of these goals remains uncertain [4]. Trade Relations and Economic Impact - In 2024, China is expected to export around $480 billion to the U.S. while importing about $140 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $330 billion for China [6]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a "decoupling" of trade, significantly affecting both countries' economies, with the U.S. facing supply shortages and rising prices [7][8]. Consequences of Decoupling - The "decoupling" model has resulted in a significant reduction in U.S. imports from China, particularly in high-tech and resource products, leading to increased reliance on other countries like Canada for energy [7]. - The anticipated loss of tax revenue from tariffs due to reduced trade could constrain U.S. government finances, impacting its ability to support farmers and manage debt [8]. - The U.S. market is likely to experience supply shocks and inflation, with consumer goods prices expected to rise due to disrupted supply chains [8]. Negotiation Dynamics - The article suggests that the U.S. is eager to enter negotiations with China to address trade imbalances, particularly in energy and agricultural products [12][13]. - The negotiation process is expected to be complex and fraught with challenges, as past behaviors of the U.S. government indicate a tendency to revert to tariff increases during discussions [15]. - The U.S. aims to maximize its interests during negotiations, which may include unreasonable demands, while China is prepared to respond firmly and maintain its principles [18][19]. Economic Outlook - The article predicts that the U.S. economy may face stagnation and inflation due to the impacts of tariffs and the decoupling model, with potential recession risks in the latter half of the year [9][16]. - In contrast, China is expected to maintain stable growth despite facing some overcapacity and deflationary pressures, leveraging its strong manufacturing base and domestic market potential [16][17].