【文/观察者网 王恺雯】"美国会赢得AI，却输掉战争吗？"英国《金融时报》12月13日以此为题刊登文 章，给美国当前的人工智能（AI）热潮泼下一盆冷水。 文章作者、拜登政府时期担任白宫科技与竞争政策特别助理的吴修铭（Tim Wu），对美国全面押注AI 发出警告，指出与中国就这一未来关键技术展开"末日之战"的想法，既是幻觉，也是硅谷的游说套路。 相较之下，中国虽然也在大力推动AI发展，但态度却克制、务实得多，也更注重多元布局。 文章指出，在过去一年时间里，美国主要科技公司在与AI相关的基础设施上投入了超过3500亿美元， 预计到2026年将超过4000亿美元。这一数字远远超过任何其他国家，包括中国，后者在AI方面的总投 资接近1000亿美元。 对于很多西方人来说，拥有足够大胆的公司和足够深厚的资本市场，从而在一场"烧钱竞赛"中占据主导 地位，或许令人感到安心。如果人工智能真如预言所说，是"统治一切的魔戒"，那么看起来西方似乎已 经把未来握在手中。 美国政府本可以对冲风险，但在特朗普执政时期，美国削减了对清洁能源投资的支持，使国家科技战略 看起来像是在一匹马身上下了很大的赌注。 文章认为，美国当下对AI的支出，是 ...

"真正迷恋AI的是美国。"作者写道，并指出，美国的投资动机既商业化，又带着某种神秘色彩，尤其体 现在对通用人工智能（AGI）和"奇点"（singularity）的追求上；人们强烈相信技术会持续呈指数级进 步，却忽视了这种情况在技术史上极为罕见。且越是深入探究，就越会发现，无论在AI的支持者中， 还是在末日论者中，相关观点都显得越来越脱离现实。 与此同时，美国科技行业高度集中，其近乎垄断的结构进一步放大了风险：当巨额资金掌握在极少数公 司手中时，集体盲从的可能性也随之上升。 【文/观察者网 王恺雯】"美国会赢得AI，却输掉战争吗？"英国《金融时报》12月13日以此为题刊登文 章，给美国当前的人工智能（AI）热潮泼下一盆冷水。 文章作者、拜登政府时期担任白宫科技与竞争政策特别助理的吴修铭（Tim Wu），对美国全面押注AI 发出警告，指出与中国就这一未来关键技术展开"末日之战"的想法，既是幻觉，也是硅谷的游说套路。 相较之下，中国虽然也在大力推动AI发展，但态度却克制、务实得多，也更注重多元布局。 文章指出，在过去一年时间里，美国主要科技公司在与AI相关的基础设施上投入了超过3500亿美元， 预计到2026年将超 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment philosophy and core strategies of Baoki Investment, known as a "global super growth stock catcher," which has successfully invested in major tech giants like Tesla, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and others, outperforming the S&P 500 and Berkshire Hathaway over the long term [1][16]. Investment Philosophy - Baoki Investment emphasizes patience, encapsulated in its motto that true investors think in terms of decades rather than quarters [3][5]. - The concept of "patient capital" is defined as investments that allow companies to respond to short-term financial interests without sacrificing long-term returns [4]. Long-term Strategy - Baoki views itself as a long-term owner of businesses, advocating for patience during setbacks and during periods of success, as superstar companies can appreciate significantly over time [5][6]. - The firm typically holds investments for 5 to 10 years or longer, focusing on long-term growth strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The prevalence of short-termism in global markets, with average stock holding periods under six months, presents an opportunity for patient capital to outperform [5]. - Baoki's approach involves building a long-term research system that includes scientists and scholars to provide insights into long-term industry trends [7]. Technological Trends - Baoki invests heavily in sectors undergoing technological transformations, guided by principles such as Moore's Law, Flatley’s Law, and Wright’s Law, which predict long-term growth in information technology, healthcare, and renewable energy [8][9][10]. Information Overload - The firm recognizes the challenges posed by information overload and short-term market sentiment, advocating for a focus on long-term company development rather than reacting to immediate market fluctuations [11][12]. - Baoki's decision-making process minimizes reliance on short-term information, with a preference for in-depth, long-term analysis [11]. Delayed Gratification - The concept of delayed gratification is central to Baoki's investment strategy, where the firm is willing to endure short-term market disturbances for the sake of long-term returns [13]. - Baoki has implemented a long-term performance evaluation system, moving away from quarterly assessments to encourage sustained investment strategies [13].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the intersection of AI and sports, particularly through the appointment of Mike Sansoni from the F1 Mercedes team to Manchester United as the data director, emphasizing the potential for AI to enhance decision-making in football [1] - The move signifies a growing recognition within the AI industry that expertise can be transferable across different sectors, as evidenced by Sansoni's transition from F1 data analysis to football [1] - The integration of AI in sports is expected to involve data analysis for player recruitment and tactical insights, showcasing the versatility of AI applications [1] Group 2 - The AI industry is witnessing a shift towards commercialization, with significant advancements in AI programming and the emergence of profitable applications in various sectors, including healthcare [2] - Companies like Anthropic are capitalizing on the lucrative market for AI programming, with a notable increase in valuation due to their dominance in this area [2] - Google has established a competitive edge in multi-modal scene generation, indicating potential expansion into gaming and film, which are seen as promising markets for AI [2] - The healthcare sector is identified as a viable area for AI applications, particularly in organizing medical data and improving quality control, despite current limitations in diagnostic capabilities [2] Group 3 - The commercialization of large models has found breakthroughs since the release of GPT-4, with discussions around the acceleration of technology development and its interrelated nature [4] - The concept of "accelerating returns" suggests that advancements in one technology can spur growth in others, leading to faster-than-expected developments in the tech landscape [4]

Group 1 - Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicts that AI intelligence will surpass individual human intelligence in less than two years and exceed the total human intelligence in about five years [2] - Musk emphasizes the current AI capabilities have surpassed most humans but not the top individuals or specialized teams, indicating a trajectory of "accelerating returns" driven by improvements in computing power, algorithms, and data [2] - The AI industry is rapidly transforming the world, with breakthroughs in large models enabling machines to possess language, vision, and reasoning capabilities, leading to trillion-dollar applications in areas like autonomous driving and smart manufacturing [3] Group 2 - The US and China are leading the global AI race, holding over 80% of AI patents and 90% of unicorn companies, with the US excelling in foundational research and hardware ecosystems, while China focuses on application-driven innovation [3] - As of Q1 2024, China's AI core industry scale is nearing 600 billion RMB, with a total of 478 large AI models released, ranking second globally after the US [6] - Experts suggest that AI technologies, particularly large models, are crucial for driving high-quality economic development in China, advocating for increased investment in foundational research to create a virtuous cycle between AI research and application [6]

Core Insights - The essence of AI has evolved from basic image recognition to a revolution in unsupervised learning, indicating a significant leap in capabilities and understanding [3][4][6] - The acceleration of AI performance is governed by a law of accelerating returns, with capabilities doubling approximately every 5.9 months, leading to exponential growth in intelligence [3][46] - The emergence of AI technologies like ChatGPT marks a pivotal moment in public awareness and interaction with AI, akin to the introduction of the Netscape browser for the internet [10][11] AI Development Milestones - The first major realization of AI's potential occurred around 2007 with Google's advancements, particularly highlighted by the "cat paper" which demonstrated unsupervised learning [3][4] - A second significant moment was in 2016, when breakthroughs in reinforcement learning and deep learning led to revolutionary training methods for machines, exemplified by AlphaGo's success [11][13] - The concept of AI as a tool for enhancing human intelligence is emphasized, with the potential for individuals to significantly increase their cognitive capabilities through effective use of AI [46][48] Skills Required in the AI Era - Three essential skills for thriving in the AI era are identified: mastering AI as a tool, engaging in truth-seeking debates, and fostering human connections [46][49] - The importance of human connection is highlighted, as businesses that prioritize genuine human interaction will likely outperform those relying solely on AI [49][50] Ethical and Philosophical Considerations - The discussion touches on the ethical implications of AI development, emphasizing that the true challenge lies not in the technology itself but in the values and motivations driving its evolution [38][40] - The potential for AI to surpass human intelligence raises questions about decision-making authority and the implications of transferring critical decisions to AI systems [42][43] Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could emerge as early as 2025, with profound implications for society and human interaction with technology [38][41] - The narrative warns against the dangers of a singular focus on AI's capabilities without addressing the underlying human values that shape its development and application [40][41]