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钢材周报:需求边际修复,钢价延续震荡-20260314
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-14 13:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a transition from the off - season to the peak season, with supply - demand contradictions not fully resolved. Steel prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and the core of the market lies in the strength of demand recovery and inventory depletion rhythm. Attention should be paid to terminal construction start - up rhythm, inventory depletion speed, and raw material price trends [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: Iron - water output was 2.212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.07%. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.00%. Hot - rolled coil production was 2.9526 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34%. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13% [11] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 1.7681 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.18% and a week - on - week increase of 80.00%. Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 2.9536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.86% and a week - on - week increase of 4.90%. Plate demand was more resilient than long - product demand [11] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 403,800 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 553,700 tons (+13.30%). Both inventories were at relatively high levels [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, basis, and price differentials of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price trends and differentials of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [22][24][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Multiple charts show the profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils in the futures market, as well as the profit and inventory trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from different sources and in different regions [78][80][91] 3.4. Cost Side - Multiple charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore futures and coke futures, iron - water and crude - steel daily output, billet prices, scrap prices, and scrap consumption [111][114][117] 3.5. Supply Side - Multiple charts show the production, production capacity utilization, and cumulative year - on - year production changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils [135][137][140] 3.6. Demand and Import - Export - Multiple charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the production and export of home appliances, and the import and export volume of steel products [147][150][154]
两会政策落地,需求修复仍待验证
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 12:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the steel mill profitability rate was around 38%, still in a moderately low range. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit improvement space for steel mills was limited. Steel mills' production enthusiasm was generally cautious [11]. - In February 2026, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased compared to the same period last year and last month. The decline was mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, reduced actual production time, partial steel mill maintenance, and stagnant demand [11]. - In February 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year and last month. The demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival. The rebar demand decline was more obvious, mainly reflecting the seasonal shutdown of the construction industry [11]. - As of February 2026, rebar inventory showed seasonal accumulation but was still relatively low year - on - year, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory pressure of plates began to appear [11]. - Overseas, geopolitical conflicts led to concerns about crude oil supply and an increase in global inflation expectations. Domestically, the government's policy combination supported infrastructure and manufacturing investment, providing medium - term support for steel demand. However, real - estate policies mainly focused on risk resolution and stock optimization, with limited incremental pull on steel demand [11]. - Currently, the recovery speed of hot - rolled coil demand is slow, and inventory accumulation is obvious. The core contradiction in the black - series market lies in the verification of the intensity of peak - season demand recovery. Before the real recovery of demand, prices are likely to fluctuate. High - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rate, building materials trading volume, and cement and building materials daily consumption should be focused on to judge the demand recovery rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In February 2026, the steel mill profitability rate was about 38%, in a moderately low range. The cost of raw materials was resilient, and the immediate profit improvement space for steel mills was limited. Steel mills' production enthusiasm was cautious [11]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, rebar production was 6.9632 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 690,000 tons (- 9.02%) and a month - on - month decrease of 28.14%. Hot - rolled coil production was 12.3634 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 676,800 tons (- 5.19%) and a month - on - month decrease of 19.35%. The decrease was due to the Spring Festival, reduced production time, partial maintenance, and stagnant demand [11]. - **Demand**: In February 2026, rebar apparent consumption was 3.7125 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 million tons (- 23.34%) and a month - on - month decrease of 59.98%. Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 11.3977 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (- 9.34%) and a month - on - month decrease of 26.69%. The demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival [11]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2026, rebar inventory was 8.006 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 628,400 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+ 3.85%) [11]. - **Conclusion**: Overseas geopolitical conflicts affected the market, and domestically, policies supported steel demand to some extent. The current core contradiction is the verification of peak - season demand recovery. Before demand recovers, prices are likely to fluctuate. High - frequency indicators should be monitored [11]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts show the price trends and trading volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions, as well as the basis, price differences between contracts, and price differences between different products [23][25][28]. - The price trends of cold - rolled coil, color - coated coil, and galvanized sheet are also presented, along with the price differences between them and hot - rolled coil [64][70][73]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Charts display the disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the gross profits per ton of hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and rebar in different production processes [78][81][83]. - The inventory data of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, are presented [91][94][103]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily molten iron production, crude steel daily production, billet prices, rebar - billet price differences, scrap steel prices, and scrap steel consumption [109][112][128]. 3.5 Supply End - The production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are presented [131][134][136]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - The apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are shown [143][146]. - The export and production data of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are presented [149][151][153]. - The import and export data of steel, rebar, and plates are presented [156][158][161].
小品种钢材周度数据-20250915
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:26
Group 1: Report Information - Date of the report: September 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Dian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Shen Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - No information provided Group 4: Data Summary Production - Actual production of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 34.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.16 tons compared to September 5 [2] - Actual production of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 31.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.8 tons [2] - Actual production of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 16.59 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 tons [2] - Actual production of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 88.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons [2] - The combined actual production of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 170.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22.47 tons [2] Apparent Demand - Apparent demand for Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 30.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.19 tons [2] - Apparent demand for H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 30.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.99 tons [2] - Apparent demand for Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons [2] - Apparent demand for Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 84.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 tons [2] - The combined apparent demand for Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 162.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.8 tons [2] Inventory Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 97.64 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.64 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 19.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 16.04 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 47.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02 tons [2] - The combined steel mill inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 180.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.78 tons [2] Social Inventory - Social inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 58.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78 tons [2] - Social inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 64.79 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [2] - Social inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 25.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 tons [2] - Social inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 123.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52 tons [2] - The combined social inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 272.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [2] Total Inventory - Total inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 156.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 tons [2] - Total inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 84.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.96 tons [2] - Total inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 41.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 tons [2] - Total inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 170.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.54 tons [2] - The combined total inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 453.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.93 tons [2] Other Inventory - Steel billet inventory in mainstream warehouses on September 12, 2025, was 136.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.75 tons [2] - Steel billet inventory in 61 Tangshan steel - rolling enterprises on September 12, 2025, was 61.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.42 tons [2] - The combined steel billet inventory was 197.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.33 tons [2] - Inventory of Hot - rolled Strip Steel in steel mills on September 12, 2025, was 36.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons [2] - Social inventory of Hot - rolled Strip Steel on September 12, 2025, was 91.6885 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 tons [2] - Inventory of High - quality Special Steel in steel mills on September 12, 2025, was 141.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 tons [2] - Social inventory of High - quality Special Steel on September 12, 2025, was 129.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.76 tons [2] - Social inventory of Welded Pipe on September 12, 2025, was 81.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41 tons [2] - Social inventory of Seamless Pipe on September 12, 2025, was 69.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 tons [2] - The total inventory of sample small - variety steel on September 12, 2025, was 1201.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8582 tons [2]
小品种钢材周度数据-20250806
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 06:01
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Small Variety Steel Weekly Data [2] - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Dian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The report presents the weekly data of small variety steels in 2025, including actual production, apparent demand, steel enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total inventory for different types of steel products such as I-beams, H-beams, color-coated coils, galvanized coils, etc. It also shows the steel billet inventory and sample small variety steel inventory, along with their week-on-week changes [2]. Group 4: Summary by Steel Product Type I-beams (I-beams, Channels, Angles) - Actual Production: 36.76 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.71 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 33.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 6.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 86.65 tons on August 1, 2025, up 4 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 58.1 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 144.8 tons on August 1, 2025, up 3.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] H-beams - Actual Production: 22.97 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.96 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 26 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.17 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 17.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.8 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 65.53 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.25 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 82.9 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Color-coated Coils - Actual Production: 15.94 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.7 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 16.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 15.43 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.14 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 25.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.27 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 41.18 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Galvanized Coils - Actual Production: 90.55 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.49 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 91.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.92 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 44.71 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 108.04 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.16 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 152.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.89 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Steel Billet Inventory - Mainstream Warehouse: 122.3 tons on August 1, 2025, up 5.52 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Rolling Steel Enterprises Adjusting Billet: 73.6 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.1 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total: 195.9 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.42 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Other Steel Products - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 31.65 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.37 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Social Inventory): 68.2241 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.85 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Welded Pipe (Social Inventory): 82.51 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.06 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Seamless Pipe (Social Inventory): 70.09 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.55 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 135.25 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Social Inventory): 127.93 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.03 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Sample Small Variety Steel Inventory - Total Inventory on August 1, 2025: 1133.2 tons, up 0.07 tons from July 25, 2025 [2]