Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel market is experiencing a fluctuating adjustment in mainstream product prices due to ongoing supply-demand contradictions, traditional off-season demand weakness, and changes in raw material costs [1][4]. Price Overview - Rebar (HRB400E 18-25mm) is quoted at 3170-3330 CNY/ton, down by 10-20 CNY/ton from the previous day, with limited high-price transactions [4]. - Medium and heavy plates (Q235B) are priced at 3870 CNY/ton for 8mm and 3500 CNY/ton for 20mm, facing downward pressure due to reduced manufacturing orders [4]. - Hot-rolled coils (Q235B/SS400) are quoted at 3420 CNY/ton for 3.0mm and 3360 CNY/ton for 4.75mm, with low demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - Wire rod (HPB300 8-10mm) is priced at 3390-3490 CNY/ton, with general market transactions [5]. - Hot-rolled strip steel (Q235B 3.5mm*685) remains stable at 3440 CNY/ton, with a lack of strong price support from traders [6]. Market Dynamics Analysis - Demand Side: The off-season effect continues, with insufficient release of demand [6]. - Construction industry: Slow funding for infrastructure projects and limited real estate construction intensity lead to low new project initiation rates [7]. - Manufacturing: Weak demand for plate products, particularly medium and heavy plates, due to reduced downstream orders [8]. - Supply Side: High production and inventory pressures coexist [9]. - Local steel mills maintain high production levels, while external resources increase competition, leading to inventory pressure [9]. - Rumors of environmental production restrictions have not materialized, creating a contradiction between steel mills' pricing intentions and actual market transactions [10]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices support the bottom of steel prices [11]. - Iron ore and coke prices remain high, with steel billet costs rising to 3080 CNY/ton, compressing profit margins for steel mills [11]. - Macroeconomic and Futures Market: Policy expectations and financial attributes significantly influence the market [12]. - In July, special bond issuance exceeded 600 billion CNY, improving infrastructure investment expectations in Chengdu, but market sentiment remains cautious regarding policy implementation [12]. - Fluctuations in the futures market dominate spot market sentiment, with weak futures prices suppressing market confidence [12]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the Chengdu steel market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly [13]. - Demand Side: Insufficient enthusiasm for terminal procurement and ongoing off-season effects hinder significant improvements in transactions [13]. - Supply Side: High production levels and inventory pressures create significant resistance to price increases [14]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices provide support, but compressed profits may inhibit capacity release [15]. - In the long term, as infrastructure projects gradually materialize and environmental production restrictions are implemented, combined with the release of demand during the autumn construction peak, the market may see a recovery [15].

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（8.13） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3222 -30 -0.92% | | 3390 | 168 | | 热卷 | 3451 -23 | -0.66% | 3490 | 39 | | 铁矿 | 795 0 0.00% | | 782 | -13 | | 焦煤 | 1245 -38.5 -3.00% | | 980 | -265 | | 焦炭 | 1737 -50.5 -2.83% 1431 -306 | | | | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体转跌。螺纹收于3222元/吨，下跌0.92%；热卷主力合 | | | | | | 约收于3451元/吨，下跌0.66%；铁矿今日主力合约收于795元/吨；双焦今天下 | | | | | | 跌，焦煤跌幅达3%。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 据9日Mysteel调研数据显示，部分独立型钢轧钢企业已收到停限产通知。自8月 | | | | ...

淡季小幅累库,钢价仍有上行驱动 ——周报20250811 | 本期观点——铁矿石 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西19港口发运2463.9万吨（环比-7.99%，同比-2.84%），铁 | | | | | 矿石45港口到港量2507.8万吨（环比+11.93%，同比-3.94%） 。 | | | | | 需求：铁水日产240.32万吨（环比-0.39万吨，同比+8.62万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量321.85万吨（环比+6.32%，同比+1.58%）。 | | 铁水超预 | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存13712.27万吨（环比+0.40%，同比-8.80%），247家 | 单边：区间 | 期下滑、 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存9013.34万吨（环比+0.01%，同比-0.36%）。 | 震荡 | 终端需求 | | | | | 不及预期、 | | | 总结：供应端，澳巴发运短期供应压力不大，铁水小幅下降，但同比仍处历 | 750-830 | 宏观不及 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月05日08时09分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，有传言称外蒙将上调煤炭资源税至 20%，目前尚没有该国官方消息发布。 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%，可能对钢材出口形成更大的 压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现，前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产仍处于筑底过程中，对钢材的需求仍边际减弱。上周我的钢 铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律 看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产， 但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变。从 技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突破，短线在消息面刺激下的反弹不影响趋势的延续 。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | ...

综述：供需双增下，5月钢价低位宽幅震荡 基本面二维四象 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 投资咨询部 黑色金属小组 研究员：曹帅 从业资格号：F03088816 投资咨询号：Z0019565 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 市场分析：市场分析：钢材前期较低迷的基本面已在价格结构中逐步体现，远强 近弱，contango 结构弱化，当前钢材估值中性偏低。从成本库存来看，随着宏 观扰动消退叠加需求修复，原料价格震荡运行，钢材成本中枢动态构建。钢材社 会库存及钢厂库存双双去库。预计钢价 5 月偏强运行，建议逢低偏多思路对待。 一、螺纹钢 4 月行情回顾：关税阴霾下，钢价偏弱震荡 图 1：螺纹钢期货价格走势 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 二、螺纹钢市场结构：Congtango 弱化；05 贴水 10，10 贴水 01 三、供给端：开工率及铁水大幅上涨，钢材供应压力增大 数据分析：截至 2025 年 5 月 02 号，Mysteel 调研的 ...

品种：螺纹热卷 成文时间 2025.04.28 回顾周期：周度 研究员：贾俊明 咨询证号（Z0002194） 螺纹热卷周报 一、市场概览 本周（20250421-20250425）周初成材螺纹和热卷震荡反弹，原料端矿石偏强 势，但临近周末，黑色系全周转入弱势，全周表现为先上冲后回落。上周铁水数据 增加至年内新高，铁矿石供需良好，对矿石价格有一定支撑，由于关税提高引发钢 材出口预期转弱一直存在，黑色市场价格小范围反复震荡。产业层面，螺纹产量微 幅回落，热卷产量增加，钢材总库存持续下降。最新数据铁水产量环比上涨 0.11 万吨，螺纹周度产量微幅下降 0.11 万吨，热卷增产 3.1 万吨，主要钢材品种螺纹 和热卷产量上波动较小，同时钢材总库存全面下降，热卷需求表现相对平稳，钢材 降库存趋势延续。上周螺纹 2510 合约上涨 25 元/吨，涨幅 0.81%，热卷 2510 合约 上涨 23 元/吨，涨幅 0.72%，铁矿 2509 合约上涨 10 元/吨，涨幅 1.14%。上周螺纹 需求峰值回落，钢厂产能微下降，螺纹总库存维持下降，螺纹基本面供需良好，降 库存周期延续，但螺纹年内需求峰值可能出现，后期可能缓慢缩减。 ...