Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. Dollar** and its performance in the context of global economic conditions and monetary policy changes by central banks, particularly the **Federal Reserve** and the **European Central Bank** [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dollar Depreciation**: The dollar has depreciated approximately **3%** over the past three months, with expectations of U.S. economic growth slowing to about **1%** by year-end, aligning with European growth rates [1][2]. 2. **Central Bank Policy Impact**: Changes in central bank policy paths are not expected to significantly alter dollar forecasts, maintaining a bearish outlook on the dollar [2]. 3. **Dollar and Stock Correlation**: There has been a notable shift in the correlation between the dollar and stocks, moving from a positive correlation in April to a negative correlation by June, which may lead investors to increase their hedging ratios [2][3]. 4. **Factors Supporting the Dollar**: Despite a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, three main factors are supporting the dollar: - U.S. asset performance is superior to that of other countries - Concerns regarding foreign economic growth and fiscal sustainability - Maximum uncertainty regarding U.S. institutional and trade policies, which may lead to increased investor confidence over time [3]. 5. **"Dollar Smile" Framework**: The "Dollar Smile" framework illustrates two scenarios: - Weak global economic growth (left side) leads to an average monthly increase of about **0.8%** in the dollar - Strong U.S. economic performance relative to other countries (right side) results in an average increase of **1.1%** [4]. 6. **Current Market Position**: The market is currently positioned in the middle of the "Dollar Smile" curve, indicating synchronized global economic growth without significant deviations in data between the U.S. and other countries [5]. 7. **Recommended Trades**: The company recommends long positions in the euro, long positions in the yen against the dollar, and long positions in the British pound against the Swiss franc due to the hawkish stance of the Bank of England and the distant nature of the UK autumn budget [6]. Additional Important Insights - The potential reversal of the factors supporting the dollar could lead to future declines, indicating a need for cautious monitoring of economic indicators and policy changes [3]. - The process for stable funds, such as pension funds, to adjust their positions may take at least **six months**, suggesting that significant capital flows may not materialize until the fourth quarter [2].

Group 1: Currency Movements - The British pound is under pressure due to weak employment data, trading down to 1.3472 against the US dollar [5] - The Japanese yen continues to weaken as market risk appetite improves, with USD/JPY trading around 145.00, close to a two-week low [3] - The New Zealand dollar shows the largest decline among non-USD currencies, influenced by the resignation of the former Reserve Bank of New Zealand chairman [7][8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank forecasts a 3.1% wage growth rate for the Eurozone in 2025, consistent with previous predictions, indicating alignment with the 2% inflation target [4] - The US is expected to release May's CPI data, with economists predicting a core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.1% to 0.3% [10]

Group 1 - Invesco predicts that the US dollar may decline by another 5% in the coming months due to pressure on the US economy and President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar to boost exports [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the upcoming US CPI data to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with a likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the near term [1] - Most economists anticipate that the Bank of Japan will delay its next interest rate hike until the first quarter of next year, with no expectations for a rate increase in the upcoming policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that foreign investors find long-term Japanese government bonds attractive, despite uncertainty regarding the timing of bond issuance adjustments by the Japanese government [2] - Jeffrey Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," believes the dollar is entering a long-term downtrend, which may lead to international stock markets outperforming US markets [2] - Gundlach also expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting, despite current low inflation levels [2]

景顺表示，在美国经济增长面临压力且美国总统特朗普乐见美元走弱以促进出口下，未来几个月美元可 能自当前水平再跌5%。景顺亚太全球市场策略师David Chao在简报会上表示，对冲活动的增加将导致 美元面临更大的下行压力；但他认为，美元从当前水平再贬10%的说法可能有点牵强。景顺看好黄金、 瑞士法郎和日元作为避险资产；看好德国、日本和瑞士政府债券。（彭博） ...