Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding 361° and its endorsement of marathon runner Zhang Shuihua has led to a significant backlash, resulting in the termination of their partnership and raising concerns about the brand's reputation and sales performance [2][4][7]. Company Performance - 361° reported a revenue of 5.705 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking an 11.0% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 858 million RMB, up 8.6% [15][16]. - Despite the positive financial results, the company's stock price fell over 12% following the earnings announcement, leading to a market value loss of approximately 1.2 billion HKD [5][15][17]. - The company's gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 41.5%, while the operating profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 19.9% [16][19]. Market Position and Strategy - 361° has adopted a cost-effective strategy, with 52.2% of its products priced below 200 RMB, which has helped it achieve significant revenue growth in previous years [25][26]. - The brand's focus on value-for-money has been challenged by competitors who are moving towards high-end and diversified product lines, raising questions about 361°'s long-term growth potential [28][29][32]. - The company has not engaged in any recent acquisitions to diversify its offerings, which contrasts with competitors like Anta and Xtep that are expanding into high-end markets [29][31]. Brand Image and Consumer Perception - The choice to endorse a "grassroots" athlete like Zhang Shuihua was initially seen as a way to connect with consumers, but the subsequent controversy has damaged the brand's image [12][14]. - The incident has highlighted the risks associated with using non-celebrity endorsements, as public perception can quickly shift and impact brand reputation [12][14]. - 361°'s brand identity is heavily tied to its value proposition, making it difficult to pivot towards higher-end products without losing its established consumer base [28][32].

Group 1 - The retail sales in Macau for Q2 2025 amounted to MOP 15.97 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, which is a significant improvement from the Q1 decline of 15.0% [1] - Key retail sectors showed recovery in Q2, with adult clothing and department stores recording year-on-year growth of 2.7% and 1.9% respectively, while declines in leather goods (-4.4%) and cosmetics and hygiene products (-3.6%) slowed compared to Q1 [1] - For the first half of the year, retail sales totaled MOP 33.55 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year, with leather goods and cosmetics experiencing declines of 15.8% and 14.3% respectively, while pharmacies and automobiles saw increases of 4.5% and 3.6% [1] Group 2 - According to retail merchants' opinions, 54.7% expect Q3 sales volume to be similar to the same period last year, while 40.0% anticipate a decrease, and 5.3% expect an increase [2] - A significant 76.0% of merchants predict that Q3 sales prices will remain at last year's levels, with 18.1% expecting a price drop and 5.9% anticipating a price increase [2]

Macro Analysis - The financial data for July shows stable social financing but weak credit performance, with new RMB loans decreasing by 50 billion, a year-on-year decline of 310 billion, and a month-on-month drop of 0.2 percentage points to 6.9% [2][3] - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support, and the bond market may perform positively despite low yields, as it is sensitive to changes in market liquidity due to rising stock and commodity prices [2] Banking Sector - The seasonal decline in credit expansion is evident, with corporate loan issuance showing a significant drop, while retail credit growth remains weak [3] - New social financing in July reached 1.16 trillion, with a growth rate of 9%, and M2 growth exceeded expectations, indicating a narrowing gap between M2 and M1 [3] Company Research - For Aolide (688378.SH), material business revenue is steadily growing, while equipment orders have temporarily declined, with expected net profits of 127 million, 244 million, and 354 million for 2025-2027 [4] - De'er Laser (300776.SZ) maintains steady growth in performance, with net profit projections of 615 million, 675 million, and 717 million for 2025-2027, despite some impairment losses [7] - Nexperia (1316.HK) reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with net profit estimates raised to 140 million, 190 million, and 230 million USD for 2025-2027 [8] - Multi-point Intelligence (2586.HK) focuses on AI and retail, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 130 million, 280 million, and 420 million for 2025-2027, reflecting a positive outlook [9] - Tencent Music (TME.N) exceeded market expectations with non-subscription revenue growth, leading to revised net profit estimates of 9.84 billion, 11.51 billion, and 12.98 billion for 2025-2027 [10] - Lenovo Group (0992.HK) achieved record revenue of 18.83 billion USD in FY26Q1, with net profit projections of 1.7 billion, 2.074 billion, and 2.332 billion for FY26-28, driven by AI demand [11] - 361 Degrees (1361.HK) reported a steady increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with EPS estimates of 0.64, 0.72, and 0.81 for 2025-2027 [12] - Aier Eye Hospital (300015.SZ) is projected to have net profits of 4.128 billion, 4.725 billion, and 5.463 billion for 2025-2027, maintaining its leadership in the ophthalmology sector [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.705 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 858 million yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. The lower profit growth compared to revenue is attributed to a decrease in interest income and other earnings [7] - The company maintains a strong market position with a focus on product upgrades and channel innovation, particularly through the expansion of "super stores" [7] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.62 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to a low valuation with P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 8.518 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.990 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.57% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 961.43 million yuan in 2023 to 1.616 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.89% [1] Segment Performance - In terms of product categories, footwear outperformed apparel, with adult and children's footwear showing strong growth. Adult apparel revenue grew by 10.9%, while children's apparel saw a 11.4% increase [7] - Online sales experienced significant growth, increasing by 45.0% year-on-year, while offline sales saw a slight decline of 1.2% [7] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin slightly increased to 41.5% in H1 2025, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.0% [7] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 524 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.2% [7]