证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20260225 若政府房贷贴息政策实施，效果如何？ 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 当前，中国房地产市场正处于新旧动能转换、寻求新的动态平衡的关键 阶段。2025 年末至 2026 年初，市场环境呈现出新的特点：一方面，存 量房贷利率与住房公积金贷款利率的同步下调，已将居民购房成本推至 近年来的新低；另一方面，市场信心的稳固仍需更多精准、有效且可持 续的政策支持，尤其在"高月供挤压消费"这一矛盾上，亟待破题。在 此背景下，由财政资金主导的"房贷贴息"政策，存在从地方试点走向 大众的可能性，构建了"财政补息差、银行扩投放、购房者享红利"的 格局。 观点 ◼ 试点城市政策效果评估：对房地产销售的影响 ◼ 从已实施贴息政策的城市数据看，政策效果存在显著的区域性差异。南 京市雨花台区的政策促进效果最为突出：2024 年 6 月至 12 月期间，其 商品住宅销售面积同比上升 28.6%，大幅领先于同期南京全市 4.9%的同 比增幅，短期刺激效应明显。其他试点区域的相对起色有限：武汉 2025 年 1 ...

来源：大伟看楼市 2026年开年以来，国家层面密集推出民生惠企政策组合拳，涵盖消费减负、住房安居等多个核心领域， 其中最受亿万房贷家庭关注的，莫过于即将全面推进的1%房贷贴息政策。不同于直接发放现金的普惠 模式，这项政策以财政精准补息的方式，为房贷族直接降低还款成本，从地方试点的实践效果来看，已 实现"财政补息差、银行扩投放、购房者享红利"的三方共赢。随着试点范围持续扩围，全国房贷族即将 迎来月供减负的实质性利好，这场楼市福利背后，既是民生保障的温度，也是房地产市场平稳健康发展 的信号，值得每一位房贷族深入解读、精准把握。 需要注意的是，1%房贷贴息政策虽为普惠福利，但并非所有房贷族都能享受，政策始终坚持"精准减 负"原则，设置了明确的适用条件和门槛，避免资金浪费。结合试点经验和即将出台的全国政策导向， 预计适用人群主要覆盖三类群体：一是2025年9月1日至2026年8月31日期间放款的新购首套商业贷款家 庭，这是政策重点支持的对象；二是符合条件的商转公贷款用户，需满足公积金连续缴存满6个月、无 房贷逾期记录等要求；三是购房后1年内办理装修贷款的家庭，需提供真实装修合同等证明材料。同 时，政策也明确了几类排除 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the increasing discussion around the mortgage interest subsidy policy, which aims to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulate consumption [1] - The mortgage interest subsidy policy is not new, as cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Wuhan have already implemented regional trials since the end of 2023, providing interest subsidies to reduce monthly payments for homebuyers [1] - The policy is expected to enhance residents' purchasing power and release consumption space that has been squeezed by mortgage payments, aligning with the broader goal of expanding domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The mortgage interest subsidy can help stabilize the real estate market by lowering home purchase costs, thereby stimulating both rigid and improved housing demand [1] - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of fiscal policies, as large-scale subsidies could increase local government debt, necessitating careful coordination of financial resources between central and local governments [2] - The implementation of the subsidy should be time-bound and gradually phased out to avoid long-term market distortions, and the intensity of the subsidies must be carefully managed to prevent excessive risk in the banking sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implementation of a housing interest subsidy policy to stimulate the real estate market, which could alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins while benefiting buyers through reduced loan costs [3][11]. Policy Implementation - Since the end of 2023, cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, Changchun, Yuncheng, and Wuhan have introduced housing interest subsidy policies to lower purchasing costs through fiscal subsidies [4]. - There are two main operational models for the subsidies: 1. Fixed interest subsidies based on loan amounts, such as 1% in Changchun and Wuhan, and tiered subsidies in Nanjing based on property size [5]. 2. Percentage-based interest subsidies, like in Yuncheng, where high-level talents receive varying subsidies based on their educational qualifications [5][6]. Policy Effects - The subsidy period typically ranges from 1 to 3 years, with payment methods including one-time, annual, or monthly disbursements [6]. - Initial results show positive impacts on new home transactions, with cities like Nanjing and Wuhan reporting significant month-on-month increases in sales following the implementation of these policies [8]. Market Response - The article notes that the market has reacted positively, with significant stock price increases for real estate companies following discussions of the subsidy policy [14]. - Analysts believe that the interest subsidy could enhance market confidence and stabilize expectations, potentially leading to a recovery in the real estate market [11]. Financial Implications - A simulation by the China Index Academy indicates that a 1% interest subsidy on a 2 million yuan loan could reduce monthly payments by approximately 1,048 yuan, saving borrowers about 12,600 yuan annually [10][11]. - The estimated total sales of new and second-hand residential properties in 2025 could reach around 14 trillion yuan, with potential subsidy costs of approximately 700 billion yuan if a 1% subsidy is applied [12]. Broader Context - The article draws parallels with international practices, such as Hong Kong's mortgage interest deduction policy and the U.S. housing affordability programs during the financial crisis, suggesting that similar strategies could be effective in China [9]. - The article emphasizes that the subsidy policy is not solely aimed at the real estate market but is part of a broader strategy to stimulate domestic demand and economic circulation [16].