证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20260225 若政府房贷贴息政策实施，效果如何？ 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 当前，中国房地产市场正处于新旧动能转换、寻求新的动态平衡的关键 阶段。2025 年末至 2026 年初，市场环境呈现出新的特点：一方面，存 量房贷利率与住房公积金贷款利率的同步下调，已将居民购房成本推至 近年来的新低；另一方面，市场信心的稳固仍需更多精准、有效且可持 续的政策支持，尤其在"高月供挤压消费"这一矛盾上，亟待破题。在 此背景下，由财政资金主导的"房贷贴息"政策，存在从地方试点走向 大众的可能性，构建了"财政补息差、银行扩投放、购房者享红利"的 格局。 观点 ◼ 试点城市政策效果评估：对房地产销售的影响 ◼ 从已实施贴息政策的城市数据看，政策效果存在显著的区域性差异。南 京市雨花台区的政策促进效果最为突出：2024 年 6 月至 12 月期间，其 商品住宅销售面积同比上升 28.6%，大幅领先于同期南京全市 4.9%的同 比增幅，短期刺激效应明显。其他试点区域的相对起色有限：武汉 2025 年 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a 1% mortgage interest subsidy policy is expected to significantly reduce monthly payments for over 150 million households with mortgages, providing a substantial financial relief and stabilizing the real estate market while boosting domestic demand [1][12]. Policy Essence - The 1% mortgage subsidy is not merely a reduction in interest rates but a three-way win involving fiscal support, bank lending, and benefits for homebuyers [3][4]. - The policy is designed to alleviate the pressure on banks' profit margins while providing financial relief to borrowers, ensuring banks maintain their existing interest rates [4] Applicable Scope - The policy targets three main groups: first-time homebuyers with new commercial loans issued between September 1, 2025, and August 31, 2026; eligible users of commercial-to-public loans; and families taking out renovation loans within one year of purchasing a home [10][11]. - Certain exclusions apply, such as commercial properties and investment purchases, to ensure the policy's sustainability and effectiveness [11]. Multi-Dimensional Impact - The policy aims to stimulate the real estate market by lowering the actual repayment costs for homebuyers, thus encouraging demand and stabilizing the market [12]. - It also helps banks by reducing the likelihood of early loan repayments, which can disrupt their financial stability [12]. - On a macroeconomic level, the reduction in mortgage pressure is expected to enhance consumer spending, thereby supporting economic recovery and creating a positive cycle of housing affordability, increased consumption, and economic growth [13]. Financial Relief Calculations - For first-time homebuyers, a loan of 1 million yuan at a 3.06% interest rate would see monthly payments drop from 3,860 yuan to 3,410 yuan, saving approximately 1.62 million yuan in interest over three years [8]. - For improving families with a loan of 200 million yuan at 3.8%, monthly payments would decrease from 8,993 yuan to 7,839 yuan, saving over 13,800 yuan annually [9]. Conclusion - The 1% mortgage subsidy policy is a significant initiative aimed at enhancing the living conditions of homebuyers while promoting a stable and healthy real estate market, with the potential to positively impact the broader economy as it rolls out [14].

来源：大伟看楼市 2026年开年以来，国家层面密集推出民生惠企政策组合拳，涵盖消费减负、住房安居等多个核心领域， 其中最受亿万房贷家庭关注的，莫过于即将全面推进的1%房贷贴息政策。不同于直接发放现金的普惠 模式，这项政策以财政精准补息的方式，为房贷族直接降低还款成本，从地方试点的实践效果来看，已 实现"财政补息差、银行扩投放、购房者享红利"的三方共赢。随着试点范围持续扩围，全国房贷族即将 迎来月供减负的实质性利好，这场楼市福利背后，既是民生保障的温度，也是房地产市场平稳健康发展 的信号，值得每一位房贷族深入解读、精准把握。 需要注意的是，1%房贷贴息政策虽为普惠福利，但并非所有房贷族都能享受，政策始终坚持"精准减 负"原则，设置了明确的适用条件和门槛，避免资金浪费。结合试点经验和即将出台的全国政策导向， 预计适用人群主要覆盖三类群体：一是2025年9月1日至2026年8月31日期间放款的新购首套商业贷款家 庭，这是政策重点支持的对象；二是符合条件的商转公贷款用户，需满足公积金连续缴存满6个月、无 房贷逾期记录等要求；三是购房后1年内办理装修贷款的家庭，需提供真实装修合同等证明材料。同 时，政策也明确了几类排除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 50th Tsinghua University China and World Economy Forum emphasizes the need for a housing loan interest subsidy policy to reverse residents' home buying expectations and stabilize housing prices in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recommendations - The report suggests implementing a housing loan interest subsidy to stimulate the housing market, leveraging a small financial input to unlock a significantly larger market potential [1][3]. - The maximum potential for the "old-for-new" policy is estimated at 10 trillion, primarily involving durable consumer goods like refrigerators and cars [1][3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Insights - The total value of the real estate market is approximately 500 trillion, with 70% (280 trillion) owned by residents, highlighting its importance beyond just financial attributes to a matter of livelihood [1][4]. - The issue of negative equity among young homeowners is framed as a significant social concern, affecting consumer confidence and behavior [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around "mortgage interest subsidies" has intensified online, with rumors suggesting that the government may implement a 1% subsidy on mortgage interest for homebuyers to address the current downturn in the real estate market. However, this information has not been officially confirmed yet [1]. Group 1: Mortgage Interest Subsidy Details - There are various interpretations of the rumored subsidy, with some suggesting it may apply only to new mortgages, while others propose it could also benefit high-risk areas or struggling real estate companies [3]. - The concept of mortgage interest subsidies can be understood as a government supplement to the existing mortgage interest rates. For instance, a 1% subsidy would reduce the current first mortgage rate of 3.05% (LPR minus 45 basis points) to approximately 2.05%, significantly lowering costs for homebuyers [3]. - An example illustrates that for a property priced at 3 million, a 1% reduction in interest rates could save around 500,000 over 30 years, which could encourage hesitant buyers to enter the market and stimulate domestic consumption [3]. Group 2: Previous Implementations and Variations - The concept of mortgage interest subsidies is not new, as cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Wuhan have previously implemented similar measures. For example, in December 2023, Hangzhou's Linping District announced a policy providing 1-3% interest subsidies for eligible loans on new residential properties for a period of 36 months [4]. - These differentiated subsidy policies, targeting specific regions and properties, differ from a unified national or local government subsidy approach [5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR), closely related to mortgages, has remained unchanged for seven months, with only a single reduction of 0.1% in May 2023. The current LPR for five years and above stands at 3.5%, with market speculation suggesting a potential reduction in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - The anticipation of mortgage interest subsidies reflects a broader hope for new policies to stimulate the struggling real estate market, which is seen as a crucial pillar of the national economy [8]. - In contrast to mortgage interest subsidies, a consumption loan subsidy policy has already been initiated, aiming to lower consumer credit costs and stimulate spending across various sectors, including automotive and education [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is a significant shift in the real estate market, with discussions around mortgage interest subsidies gaining traction as a potential nationwide policy to support the housing sector [1][3] - The proposed measures include nationwide personal housing loan interest subsidies, an increase in the special additional deduction for housing loan interest from 1,000 yuan to 2,000 yuan per month, and a reduction in transaction taxes related to housing sales [1][3] - These measures aim to reduce the financial burden across the entire "buying-loaning-holding" chain, signaling a comprehensive approach rather than isolated stimuli [3] Group 2 - The potential impact of mortgage interest subsidies is substantial, as they would lower the cost of funds, making home purchases more accessible and potentially increasing transaction activity in the market [3][4] - According to estimates, if the average down payment ratio is 50%, the loan scale could reach approximately 7 trillion yuan, and a 1% subsidy could result in a subsidy scale close to 700 billion yuan [4][5] - For an individual borrower with a loan of 2 million yuan over 30 years at an interest rate of 3.1%, a 1% subsidy could reduce monthly payments by about 1,048 yuan, equating to an annual savings of approximately 12,570 yuan [6][7] Group 3 - Local markets have begun to take proactive measures, with some properties in Guangzhou offering mortgage subsidy promotions, providing 1,000 yuan per month for 30 years, totaling a maximum subsidy of 360,000 yuan per unit [9] - Price adjustments in Guangzhou have also been noted, with significant reductions in property prices, indicating a strategic move to stimulate market interest [10] - The luxury property market in Shanghai continues to lead, with a notable percentage of high-value transactions, suggesting that if supportive policies are implemented, confidence in the real estate market could strengthen, particularly in the luxury segment [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around mortgage interest subsidies is gaining momentum as pilot programs in certain regions have sparked expectations for a nationwide policy rollout, aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulating housing demand [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The mortgage interest subsidy policy is being piloted in various regions, with common features such as regional limitations, prioritization of first-time homebuyers, capped amounts, and defined timeframes [3]. - Wuhan has announced a subsidy of 1% on the initial loan amount for first-time homebuyers in specific districts, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan, distributed over two years [3]. - Changchun's policy is more extensive, offering a 1% subsidy for up to 10,000 yuan per year for three years, applicable to both public and commercial loans [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The 1% mortgage interest subsidy effectively acts as an "invisible interest rate cut," creating a win-win situation where fiscal subsidies support banks while reducing costs for homebuyers [4]. - For a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years at an average interest rate of 3.06%, the monthly payment would decrease from 3,860 yuan to 3,410 yuan with the subsidy, saving approximately 16,200 yuan in interest over three years [4]. - The policy is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures for existing homeowners and lower entry barriers for potential buyers, thereby stimulating housing demand [4][6]. Group 3: Banking Sector Implications - Banks are crucial in executing the subsidy process and ensuring fund distribution, facing challenges from narrowing net interest margins due to market rate reforms and economic support measures [5]. - The average net interest margin for banks has dropped to 1.42%, with state-owned banks at 1.31%, indicating ongoing profitability pressures [5]. - The subsidy model allows banks to maintain their interest rates while the fiscal subsidy covers the difference, thus protecting their profit margins [7]. Group 4: Regional Variations and Fiscal Considerations - The implementation of the subsidy policy may vary significantly across regions due to differing economic strengths and housing market conditions, potentially leading to uneven fiscal impacts [8]. - Core cities with high housing prices and loan volumes will face greater fiscal burdens compared to smaller cities, which may struggle to allocate funds for subsidies [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the increasing discussion around the mortgage interest subsidy policy, which aims to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulate consumption [1] - The mortgage interest subsidy policy is not new, as cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Wuhan have already implemented regional trials since the end of 2023, providing interest subsidies to reduce monthly payments for homebuyers [1] - The policy is expected to enhance residents' purchasing power and release consumption space that has been squeezed by mortgage payments, aligning with the broader goal of expanding domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The mortgage interest subsidy can help stabilize the real estate market by lowering home purchase costs, thereby stimulating both rigid and improved housing demand [1] - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of fiscal policies, as large-scale subsidies could increase local government debt, necessitating careful coordination of financial resources between central and local governments [2] - The implementation of the subsidy should be time-bound and gradually phased out to avoid long-term market distortions, and the intensity of the subsidies must be carefully managed to prevent excessive risk in the banking sector [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the real estate market in China and Hong Kong, focusing on policy changes and market trends for 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Policy Direction and Stability - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating that the goal of stopping the decline in 2024 was not fully achieved. The focus has shifted to long-term stability strategies [2][3]. - Future policies will likely include city-specific measures, inventory reduction, and supply optimization to stabilize the market. This includes encouraging the purchase of existing properties for affordable housing [3][4]. 2. Potential Policy Measures - Possible measures may involve relaxing restrictions on home purchases and loans, as well as using monetary tools like interest rate cuts to lower mortgage costs [4][6]. - The implementation of a mortgage interest subsidy policy is anticipated, although not explicitly mentioned during the conference. This could help reduce home buying costs [6][7]. 3. Urban Renewal and Housing Fund Reforms - Urban renewal efforts will focus on high-quality improvements, enhancing living conditions, and transforming old neighborhoods into attractive communities [5]. - Reforms to the housing provident fund will expand coverage to flexible employment workers and allow funds to be used for renovations, improving accessibility and efficiency [5]. 4. Hong Kong Real Estate Market Trends - The Hong Kong real estate market is in a recovery phase, with private residential prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year in October. The market has seen a continuous rise for five months [8]. - Despite a 27% year-on-year decline in new residential transactions, the cumulative transaction volume for new and second-hand homes has increased by approximately 17% [8]. - Rental prices for private residences in Hong Kong have shown a year-on-year increase of 4%, with most residential properties generating positive cash flow due to rental yields exceeding mortgage rates [8]. 5. Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Retail sales in Hong Kong grew by 7% year-on-year in October, indicating a gradual recovery in the retail sector [3][8]. - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong market is heavily dependent on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could further influence mortgage rates and market recovery [8]. Additional Important Insights - The effectiveness of mortgage interest subsidies, such as those implemented in Changchun, shows that while they can boost transaction volumes, they may not significantly prevent price declines [7]. - The focus on urban renewal and housing fund reforms indicates a shift towards improving living standards and accessibility in the housing market, which could have long-term positive effects [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the real estate market, highlighting the anticipated policy changes and market trends for 2025.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implementation of a housing interest subsidy policy to stimulate the real estate market, which could alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins while benefiting buyers through reduced loan costs [3][11]. Policy Implementation - Since the end of 2023, cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, Changchun, Yuncheng, and Wuhan have introduced housing interest subsidy policies to lower purchasing costs through fiscal subsidies [4]. - There are two main operational models for the subsidies: 1. Fixed interest subsidies based on loan amounts, such as 1% in Changchun and Wuhan, and tiered subsidies in Nanjing based on property size [5]. 2. Percentage-based interest subsidies, like in Yuncheng, where high-level talents receive varying subsidies based on their educational qualifications [5][6]. Policy Effects - The subsidy period typically ranges from 1 to 3 years, with payment methods including one-time, annual, or monthly disbursements [6]. - Initial results show positive impacts on new home transactions, with cities like Nanjing and Wuhan reporting significant month-on-month increases in sales following the implementation of these policies [8]. Market Response - The article notes that the market has reacted positively, with significant stock price increases for real estate companies following discussions of the subsidy policy [14]. - Analysts believe that the interest subsidy could enhance market confidence and stabilize expectations, potentially leading to a recovery in the real estate market [11]. Financial Implications - A simulation by the China Index Academy indicates that a 1% interest subsidy on a 2 million yuan loan could reduce monthly payments by approximately 1,048 yuan, saving borrowers about 12,600 yuan annually [10][11]. - The estimated total sales of new and second-hand residential properties in 2025 could reach around 14 trillion yuan, with potential subsidy costs of approximately 700 billion yuan if a 1% subsidy is applied [12]. Broader Context - The article draws parallels with international practices, such as Hong Kong's mortgage interest deduction policy and the U.S. housing affordability programs during the financial crisis, suggesting that similar strategies could be effective in China [9]. - The article emphasizes that the subsidy policy is not solely aimed at the real estate market but is part of a broader strategy to stimulate domestic demand and economic circulation [16].