美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）呼吁大幅降低利率以支持美国劳动力市场，他认为当前货币政策过于 紧缩，正在推高失业率。 米兰主张通过一系列50个基点的降息，尽快将利率降至中性水平。他明确指出失业率攀升是货币政策过 紧的直接结果。 不过米兰也承认，随着降息进程的推进，快速行动的必要性将会降低。他对2026年经济前景表达了相对 乐观的态度，并强调几乎所有的通胀超标都是"幻觉"，主要源于住房市场的供需失衡和货币政策的滞 后效应。 金融市场目前预计美联储将在12月9日至10日的会议上降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从目前 的3.75%至4%进一步下调。 劳动力市场疲软成降息主要理由 米兰将失业率上升直接归因于过紧的货币政策。他表示： 我们必须认识到失业率一直在上升，这是货币政策过于紧缩的结果。 最新数据显示，9月份失业率从8月的4.3%升至4.4%。 他警告称，如果美联储不继续以相当快的速度降息，货币政策将"扼杀所有积极发展的萌芽"，劳动力市 场将无法实现应有的复苏。Miran强调： 我们将成为失业率持续上升的源头，这并非好事。 他指出，近期的就业数据应该促使更多委员会成员认同继续降息的必要性。 周二 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown is influencing mortgage rates, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield potentially leading to lower mortgage rates, despite various market factors at play [1][4]. Impact of Government Shutdown on Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in tandem with mortgage rates, has been declining, suggesting that mortgage rates may also decrease [1]. - Mortgage rates have been falling since July but have recently seen slight increases due to aggressive lender actions rather than market movements [2]. - A government shutdown can lead to a drop in mortgage rates by approximately 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points, depending on the situation [4]. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The shutdown may limit access to key economic data, which could shape investor sentiment and further influence mortgage rates [3]. - The ADP report indicating 32,000 job losses in September raises concerns about a weakening job market, especially with the absence of BLS job market numbers due to the shutdown [6]. - The bond market is currently fluctuating between concerns over the job market and inflation, both of which impact mortgage rates in different directions [8]. Predictions and Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that mortgage rates may continue to drift downward after the government shutdown, although various factors could affect this trend [7]. - The housing market is already under pressure from high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, and the uncertainty introduced by the shutdown may further discourage prospective buyers [7][8].