广联达（002410.SZ）公司动态报告 触底反转，向 AI 而生 2025 年 06 月 03 日 ➢ 核心业务稳步发展，2024 年业绩大幅改善。1）核心业务稳步发展：数字成 本业务持续从单岗位工具向成本全过程应用场景升级，传统造价工具续费率、应 用率保持稳定，成本测算产品深耕大客户、应用率不断提升；数维设计业务方面， 数维房建完成多个价值标杆打造，数维道路设计方案能力全面覆盖路桥隧专业， 截至 2024 年应用项目数量增长至 1440 家。数字施工业务主动调整经营思路， 从追求经营规模转向对利润和现金流的管理。2）毛利率上升、费用端持续优化， 推动 2024 年净利润快速回暖：2024 年公司归母净利润 2.5 亿元，同比增长 116.19%。实现扣非归母净利润 1.74 亿元，同比增长 219.92%。 ➢ 政策有望推动下游景气度回暖，SaaS 龙头有望开启发展新征程。1）政策推 动下游回暖：2024 年 9 月，中国央行会同国家金融监督管理总局出台四项金融 支持房地产政策；《2025 年国务院政府工作报告》提出，持续用力推动房地产市 场止跌回稳，有序搭建相关基础性制度，加快构建房地产发展新模式。公司 ...

Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry - The report predicts that international oil prices will be supported in the short term due to OPEC+ compensation cuts, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fluctuate around $60 per barrel in Q2 2025 [3][10][11] - Recent OPEC+ announcements indicate a reduction of 222,000 barrels per day in April and 378,000 barrels per day in May to compensate for previous overproduction, which may help stabilize oil prices despite concerns about oversupply [8][10] - The report highlights that U.S. commercial crude oil is entering a phase of inventory accumulation, limiting refinery operating intentions, while demand growth in Europe and China remains weak [10][11] Group 2: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The report notes a recovery in market risk appetite, with U.S. stock indices showing significant gains, driven by positive earnings from major tech companies [4][13] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and inflation trends, as these factors will influence market movements and investor sentiment [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology sector opportunities, consumer sectors supported by policy, and resilient dividend assets amid external disturbances [4][15] Group 3: Domestic Economic Indicators - The report indicates that domestic consumption during the May Day holiday was robust, with significant increases in travel and entertainment spending, suggesting a strengthening consumer base [5][19] - It highlights that industrial profits have shown improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by sectors such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [18][19] - The report discusses the government's efforts to stabilize employment and boost domestic demand through various policy measures, which are expected to support economic growth [18][19] Group 4: Banking Sector - The report states that the overall performance of banks in Q1 2025 was stable, with an average net profit decline of 1.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in operating income [32][33] - It mentions the introduction of new regulations to standardize supply chain finance, aimed at better serving the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises [33] - The report advises investors to consider banks as high-dividend investment options, given the current low-risk interest rate environment and the potential for further interest margin compression [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving a net profit of 29.84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 390.89%, despite a revenue decline of 5.24% to 1.219 billion yuan [3][8]. - The company's digital cost business is experiencing positive breakthroughs, driven by AI empowerment, with significant improvements in product application rates and customer satisfaction [8][9]. - The transition in the company's digital construction business is showing results, with enhanced management quality and the successful establishment of value benchmarks in the digital design sector [9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 89.38%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.39 billion yuan, 6.61 billion yuan, and 6.90 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 493 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 765 million yuan [7][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.30 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.46 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][11]. Business Segment Insights - The digital cost business is evolving from single-position tools to comprehensive project cost management solutions, with a focus on enhancing data service offerings [8][9]. - The digital construction business is shifting its strategy to prioritize profit and cash flow management, focusing on key production factors and core business management scenarios [9]. - The company has successfully implemented AI functionalities in its cost estimation products, significantly improving efficiency and accuracy [9]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 49.4, 38.7, and 31.8, respectively [10][11]. - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 4.7% in 2025 to 11.1% by 2027 [11].