Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.358 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 787 million yuan, up 18% [1] - The management's continuous improvement, regional operation of five brands, and effective cost control are expected to enhance profitability [1] - The product structure is continuously improving, with notable performance from brands such as Kongfu Family and Wuling Wine [1][4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product includes: - Laobai Gan: 2.590 billion yuan (+9.96%) - Bancheng Shaoguo: 858 million yuan (-10.33%) - Wenwang Gong: 550 million yuan (+0.53%) - Kongfu Family: 230 million yuan (+28.12%) - Wuling Wine: 1.099 billion yuan (+12.30%) - The average price per ton for these products has also increased, with Wuling Wine seeing a rise of 30.34% [1][4] Market Performance - The company's main markets, including Hebei, Anhui, Hunan, and Shandong, have shown steady growth, with Shandong experiencing a remarkable increase of 31.39% in revenue [2] - In Q1 2025, the revenue from high-end wines (over 100 yuan) reached 661 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.50%, accounting for 56.85% of total revenue [1][2] Cost Control and Profit Margins - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 65.95%, with a non-recurring net profit margin of 13.78% [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 68.58%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.86 percentage points [3] - The company aims to control total operating costs within 4.359 billion yuan for 2025 [4] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 4% and 6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 12% and 13% [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is 0.86 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.68 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.67 CNY, based on a calculated equity value of 180 billion CNY [3][11][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its base market, with significant cost control measures yielding results in 2024. The operating profit growth target for 2025 is set at 12% [2][10]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 790 million CNY, up 18.2% year-on-year [10][4]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.47 billion CNY in 2025, with a corresponding year-on-year growth target of 2.1% [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 5.26 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 5.36 billion CNY in 2024 and further to 5.61 billion CNY in 2025, indicating a growth trajectory [4][14]. - The net profit for 2023 was 666 million CNY, expected to rise to 787 million CNY in 2024 and 890 million CNY in 2025, showcasing a consistent growth pattern [4][14]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 65.9% in 2024, with a slight increase to 66.6% in 2025 [4][14]. Regional Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 31.2 million CNY in Hebei, 2.1 million CNY in Shandong, 5.5 million CNY in Anhui, and 11.0 million CNY in Hunan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 31.4%, 0.5%, and 12.3% [2][10]. - For Q1 2025, revenues in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other provinces were 7.2 million CNY, 0.4 million CNY, 1.3 million CNY, 2.1 million CNY, and 0.6 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 7.9%, 2.5%, 9.7%, and -36.6% respectively [2][10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 14.7%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from the previous year [2][4]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.06 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.8% [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.67 yuan, based on a calculated equity value of 180 billion yuan [3][11][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its base market, with significant cost control measures showing results in 2024. The operating profit target growth for 2025 is set at 12% [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts due to the ongoing adjustment phase in the liquor industry, predicting earnings per share of 0.97, 1.07, and 1.15 yuan for 2025-2027 [3][11]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 14.69% in 2024, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, with total expense ratio decreasing by 4.12 percentage points [2][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 53.6 billion yuan (up 1.9% year-on-year) and a net profit of 7.9 billion yuan (up 18.2% year-on-year) [10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 56.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth target of 2.1% and total operating costs controlled under 43.59 billion yuan [2][10]. - The company’s financial metrics show a gross margin of 65.9% for 2024, with a forecasted increase to 66.6% in 2025 [4][10]. Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue by region was as follows: Hebei 31.2 billion yuan (+2.6%), Shandong 2.1 billion yuan (+31.4%), Anhui 5.5 billion yuan (+0.5%), Hunan 11.0 billion yuan (+12.3%), and other provinces 3.3 billion yuan (+20.7%) [2][10]. - In Q1 2025, revenue from Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other provinces was 7.2 billion yuan (+8.0%), 0.4 billion yuan (+7.9%), 1.3 billion yuan (+2.5%), 2.1 billion yuan (+9.7%), and 0.6 billion yuan (-36.6%) respectively [2][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.97, 1.07, and 1.15 yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [3][11]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 15.9% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 17.3% by 2027 [4][10]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 17.36 yuan, with a 52-week high of 25.54 yuan and a low of 15.81 yuan [5]. - The absolute performance over the past week, month, and three months showed declines of -1.92%, -6.42%, and -7.56% respectively [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million, up 18.2% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.27 billion, a decrease of 10.0%, and a net profit of 230 million, down 6.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 1.17 billion, an increase of 3.4%, and a net profit of 150 million, up 11.9% [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the full year 2024, the revenue from various brands was as follows: Hengshui Laobai Gan 2.59 billion (+10.0%), Bancheng Shaoguo Jiu 860 million (-10.3%), Wuling 1.1 billion (+12.3%), Wenwang Gong 550 million (+0.5%), and Kongfu Family 230 million (+28.1%) [2] - Regional revenue growth in 2024 was: Hebei +2.6%, Hunan +12.3%, Anhui +0.5%, Shandong +31.4%, Other provinces +20.7%, and Overseas +1.7% [2] - In Q1 2025, products priced above 100 yuan generated 660 million in revenue (+25.5%), while those below 100 yuan generated 500 million (-15.7%) [2] Cost and Efficiency - The company maintained a gross margin of 66.0% in 2024, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 14.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 68.6%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 13.1%, up 1.0 percentage point [3] - Contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 were 1.88 billion, an increase of 34.3% from the beginning of the year [3] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to its dual-brand strategy focusing on "Hengshui Laobai Gan" and "Shibashijiu," aiming to enhance market penetration of high-end products in North China [3] - The expansion of Hunan Wuling sauce liquor continues, and the company is implementing cost control measures to improve performance [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 890 million, 970 million, and 1.06 billion, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.06, and 1.16, indicating a PE ratio of 18, 17, and 15 times respectively [3]