2025 年年报利润预计高增长，2026 年迎 接产品大年 贪玩跟踪点评报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈筱(分析师) | 021-38675863 | chenxiao@gtht.com | S0880515040003 | | | 陈星光(分析师) | 021-23219104 | chenxingguang@gtht.com | S0880525040043 | | | 赵旖旎(研究助理) | 021-23183268 | zhaoyini@gtht.com | S0880125042251 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 本报告导读： 公司 2025 年净利润实现高增长，近期公司成功发行 4.68 亿港元可转债，加速 AI+ 游戏布局，我们认为公司 2026 年新游储备丰富，流水有望恢复高增长。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the local market index [8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of no less than 1.5 billion RMB, a substantial increase from 44 million RMB in 2024 [10]. - The successful issuance of 468 million HKD in convertible bonds will accelerate the company's AI+ gaming strategy, enhancing operational efficiency and growth potential [10]. - The company has a rich pipeline of new games for 2026, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth, including titles like "King's Legend 2" and "New Moon Continent" [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 6,514.59 million RMB in 2023 to 4,607.70 million RMB in 2025, before rebounding to 5,621.05 million RMB in 2026 and 6,432.11 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 22.0% in 2026 [4]. - Net profit is expected to recover dramatically from a loss of 3.62 million RMB in 2024 to 1,571.99 million RMB in 2025, with a projected profit of 1,208.54 million RMB in 2026 and 1,495.21 million RMB in 2027 [4]. - The company’s PE ratio is forecasted to improve significantly from 98.94 in 2023 to 5.80 in 2025, indicating a more favorable valuation as earnings recover [4]. Game Product Pipeline - The company has developed a diverse product matrix, including popular IPs such as "Legend," "Miracle," and "Blood of the River," with several new titles set for release in 2026 [12]. - Key upcoming games include "King's Legend 2," "New Moon Continent," and "Douluo Dalu: The Legend of the Evil," which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The new game cycle in January continues with several products like "Duck Duck Goose" and "Heart Town" launching successfully. The trend of Chinese games going overseas remains strong, with leading companies like Dd and others showing impressive performance. The industry is expected to see a series of new game launches, leading to continuous catalysts [2][4] - The gaming sector's product cycle in 2026 shows strong sustainability and performance certainty, indicating room for valuation improvement. It is recommended to continue focusing on investment opportunities in the gaming sector, with relevant companies including Giant Network, Kaiying Network, Perfect World, 37 Interactive, G-bits, Yaoji Technology, Shengtian Network, Tencent Holdings, and Xindong Company [2][4] Summary by Sections New Game Launches - The January new game cycle has seen successful launches, including "Duck Duck Goose," which has gained significant popularity, and "Heart Town," which topped the global free charts in over 50 regions during its pre-download phase [2][4] - The performance of these new games validates the importance of global expansion and social interaction as growth engines in the gaming industry, with a strategy of "evergreen games + globalization" becoming key for leading companies [10] Overseas Market Performance - The overseas gaming market continues to thrive, with Dd's "Whiteout Survival" achieving over $4 billion in global revenue by December 2025. Other games like "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" and "Truck Star" have also shown strong performance in the overseas market [10] Future Game Releases - Upcoming game releases include Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" on January 13, "Rock Kingdom: World" on March 26, and several others from various companies, indicating a busy launch schedule that may catalyze further industry growth [10]

Core Insights - The company, Tanwan (09890), has successfully completed a convertible bond issuance totaling HKD 468 million and has historically surpassed a market capitalization of HKD 10 billion, marking a significant milestone in its growth trajectory [1][2] - The market has responded positively to the company's strategic moves, reflecting a renewed recognition of its intrinsic value and its evolution from a single game publisher to a comprehensive entertainment ecosystem platform [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Response - The convertible bonds were issued at an initial conversion price of HKD 23.5, representing a premium of approximately 38.24% over the closing price prior to the announcement, and over 40% compared to the average price of the previous five trading days, setting a record for similar convertible bonds in Hong Kong [2][3] - The stock price has shown a significant upward trend towards the conversion price target, indicating market confidence bolstered by the backing of a prominent international investment firm, LMR Partners, which manages over USD 11 billion [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and AI Integration - The net proceeds from the convertible bond issuance will be fully allocated to AI-related business investments and equity investments, emphasizing the company's commitment to integrating AI deeply into its operational framework [4][5] - The company has developed a comprehensive AI technology foundation that spans the entire lifecycle of game publishing, operations, and development, enhancing profitability through advanced AI applications [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Product Development - The company is poised for future growth with a lineup of major IPs, including "Tianlong Babu 2: Feilong Zhantian" and "Douluo Dalu: Zhuxie Chuan Shuo," which will leverage AI to enhance game experiences [6] - The vision for the future is to evolve from a traditional gaming company into a diversified entertainment ecosystem driven by AI, aiming to create engaging experiences for users and provide quality services to game developers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, driven by overseas expansion and new game launches, with a notable performance in Q1 2025. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.118 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.628 billion, up 11.41% year-on-year [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 1.191 billion, down 5.95% year-on-year, while net profit was 348 million, a decrease of 8.17% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.353 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, and net profit of 518 million, up 21.57% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company's overseas revenue reached 375 million in 2024, a significant increase of 221.48% year-on-year, with a revenue share of 9.7% [2] - The successful launch of new games such as "Dragon Valley World" in February 2025 contributed to steady revenue and performance growth in Q1 2025 [2] - The information services segment also showed robust growth, with revenue of 940 million in 2024, up 42% year-on-year, accounting for 18.4% of total revenue [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Profitability - Sales expenses increased by 29% to 459 million in Q1 2025 due to the launch of "Dragon Valley World," but the sales expense ratio improved to 33.9% [3] - The gross profit margin in Q1 2025 rose to 83.6%, and the net profit margin increased to 38.3% due to effective cost management and growth in high-margin businesses [3] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company is actively investing in AI and has a rich pipeline of new games, with several expected to launch in 2025, potentially driving further revenue growth [4] - The company anticipates net profits of 2.15 billion and 2.37 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.8 and 15.2 [4]