Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top region due to the continuous wrong policies in the United States [2] - The liquidity crunch is the core factor driving the stock market decline, and further decline may lead to "mechanical" selling [1] - Top investors are taking a more cautious stance on high - valuation tech stocks due to rising systemic risks [1] - The importance of retail investors in the US stock market, especially in the options market, is increasing [1][2] - AI and robotics are considered the only way to get rid of the debt crisis and prevent US bankruptcy [1] - AI may lead to a slowdown in corporate recruitment and a "quiet period" in the labor market [1] - The loose financial environment supporting the AI boom is reaching an inflection point [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - Morgan Chase believes the liquidity crunch drives the stock market decline, and further drops may trigger "mechanical" selling [1] - Billionaire Peter Thiel's fund, Bridgewater, and SoftBank have reduced their holdings in NVIDIA, and top investors are cautious about high - valuation tech stocks [1] - Retail investors are among the largest net buyers of the US stock market this year, and their trading volume in the options market has exceeded that of institutions [1][2] - Musk thinks AI and robotics are the only way to avoid US bankruptcy due to unsustainable federal debt growth [1] - US White House economic advisor Hasset says AI boosts labor productivity but may slow corporate recruitment [1] - Amazon raised $15 billion through bond issuance, and the total bond issuance of four major tech giants in the past two months exceeded $80 billion. The financial environment supporting the AI boom is changing [1] - UBS's chairman discussed the possibility of relocating its headquarters to the US due to Switzerland's capital requirements [1] - India's October goods trade deficit hit a record high of $41.7 billion due to increased gold imports and high - tariff impacts on US exports [1] Global Economic Logic - The end of the US government shutdown will inject trillions of dollars from the US Treasury's general account into the market [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Huawei announced "ten major inventions" in computing power infrastructure and storage [2] - Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center electricity demand is rising, and a 44 - gigawatt power gap is expected by 2028 [2] - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are almost exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2] - US corporate layoffs in October reached 153,074, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, a significant increase from September and almost three times that of last year [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 勋称：中国将赢得人工智能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和 | | --- | | 更低的能源成本。华为公布"十大发明"成果，Scale-up 超节点算力平台、新一代超 | | 高容量 SSD 存储、短距光互联 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 受外部市场下跌影响，周五两市主要指数低开走弱，油气板块走强。两市成交额 1.95 万亿元，稍有缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4628，跌 73 点，跌幅-1.57%；上证 50 指数收 | | | | | 3038 点，跌 35 点，跌幅-1.15%；中证 500 指数收 7235 点，跌 119 点，跌幅-1.63%； | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 7502 点，跌 87 点，跌幅-1.16%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的 | | | | | 是油气资源 ETF、科创板新能源 ETF、石油天然气 ETF、中药 ETF、石油 ETF，跌幅 | | | | | 居前的是中韩半导体 ETF、创业板人工智能 ETF 国泰、信创 ETF 易方达。两市板块 | | | | | 指数中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai silver has reached a new high, and silver inventories are continuously decreasing [2][42][48] - The U.S. government has resumed operation, and trillions of dollars in funds from the fiscal general account will flow into the market, equivalent to four interest rate cuts [4][43] - The U.S. employment boom is declining, and the number of corporate lay - offs in October has increased significantly compared to September and the same period last year [14] - China's commodity competitiveness has increased, and the U.S. import volume from China in August has increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [17] - The U.S. manufacturing industry is accelerating its return, and "re - industrialization" is speeding up [26] - U.S. consumption remains strong, as shown by the data of wholesalers' sales and retail and food sales [29][32] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI remained flat in October, while the service industry PMI accelerated its expansion [35] - India's manufacturing and service industries have continued to expand for more than three years [37] - Japan's long - term government bond yields are on an upward trend [40] - The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate at 4000 points, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index for range trading [43][46] - London spot gold prices are higher than New York futures gold prices, and gold is moving towards physical shortage [57] - Copper prices are rising moderately due to AI infrastructure and power construction [59] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and trillions of dollars in funds from the Treasury general account will flow into the market [12] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [12] - Huawei has announced "ten major inventions" including key technologies such as the Scale - up super - node computing platform [12] - Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, and many Chinese stocks seem "very attractive" [12] - Morgan Stanley predicts that there will be a 44 - gigawatt power gap in U.S. data centers by 2028 [12] - More companies report a slowdown in consumption, and the weakness has spread to the middle - income group [12] - In October, the total number of U.S. corporate lay - offs was 153,074, mainly driven by the technology and warehousing industries, an increase of 183% from September and almost three times that of the same period last year [12][14] - The U.S. employment boom is declining [14] - After the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, China's commodity competitiveness increased, and the U.S. import volume from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [17] - The U.S. ISM services PMI in October was 52.4, continuing to expand [20] - In August, the U.S. manufacturing backlog of orders was at a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, indicating high prosperity [23] - In August, the U.S. capital goods import amount was $91.9 billion, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing industry is accelerating its return [26] - In August, U.S. wholesalers' sales reached a record high of $711.3 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, indicating strong consumption [29] - In August, the total U.S. retail and food sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, indicating strong consumption [32] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI remained flat in October, while the service industry PMI accelerated its expansion [35] - India's manufacturing and service industries in October continued to expand and have been expanding for more than three years [37] - Japan's long - term government bond yields are on an upward trend [40] Big - Asset Allocation - The U.S. government has resumed operation, and trillions of dollars in funds from the fiscal general account will flow into the market, equivalent to four interest rate cuts [43] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high again, insurance funds are continuously entering the market with an average monthly inflow of 150 billion yuan, the market style has temporarily shifted to high - dividend and bonus stocks, and the SSE 50 Index has strengthened [43][44] - The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate at 4000 points, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index for range trading [43][46] - The price of Shanghai silver has reached a new high, and silver inventories are continuously decreasing. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has only 822 tons left, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has only 584 tons left [42][43][51] - London spot gold prices are higher than New York futures gold prices, and gold is moving towards physical shortage [57] - Copper prices are rising moderately due to AI infrastructure and power construction [59]