Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Division released a report titled "2026 Global Market Outlook," highlighting the critical turning point in global markets due to geopolitical conflicts and the AI bubble, with a forecast of weakening structural support for the US dollar and increasing resilience in Asian economies [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The bank anticipates that risk assets will outperform in 2026, despite market differentiation, suggesting investors diversify across a broader range of asset classes [1] - Recommended core allocations include overweight positions in US, Indian, and Chinese equities, emerging market debt, and gold, with Chinese stocks expected to benefit from improved corporate governance and supportive policies for technology and innovation [1][2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Insights - China is expected to implement more decisive and targeted stimulus measures by 2026, focusing on advanced technology investments to enhance self-sufficiency and productivity [2] - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position in Chinese stocks, citing strong corporate earnings growth related to AI themes and targeted policy support for the economy [2] Group 3: Bond and Currency Market Outlook - The bank views global bonds as a core holding, favoring government bonds over corporate bonds due to attractive nominal yields, with an overweight in emerging market government bonds benefiting from moderate inflation and dovish monetary policy [2] - In the foreign exchange market, the bank expects the US dollar to remain supported in the short term due to cautious Fed policies and geopolitical risks, but anticipates a weakening of the dollar's structural support over the next 12 months as the Fed may shift to easing [2] Group 4: Commodity Price Forecasts - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position in gold, with target prices of $4,350 per ounce in 3 months and $4,800 per ounce in 12 months, driven by ongoing demand from emerging market central banks and favorable macro conditions [3] - The bank forecasts that New York crude oil prices will stabilize around $61 per barrel in 3 months and $60 per barrel in 12 months, with supply surplus expected to limit short-term price rebounds from geopolitical risks [3]

Core Insights - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Division released the "2026 Global Market Outlook" report, highlighting the theme "Floating Risks? Diversified Layout!" The report indicates that global markets are at a critical turning point, with geopolitical conflicts and the AI bubble being significant concerns. The structural support for the US dollar is expected to gradually weaken, while the resilience and reform dividends of the Asian economy are becoming increasingly prominent [1] Group 1 - The report anticipates that risk assets will outperform in 2026, although there will be more pronounced differentiation in the market. Investors are encouraged to diversify across a broader range of asset classes to maintain stability amid uncertainty and changing dynamics [1] - In terms of core allocations, Standard Chartered recommends overweighting US, Indian, and Chinese stocks, emerging market debt, and gold. Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from improved corporate governance and supportive policies for technology and innovation [1] Group 2 - Standard Chartered expects China to potentially implement more decisive and targeted stimulus measures by 2026, particularly focusing on advancing technology investments to enhance self-sufficiency and productivity [2] - In the bond market, Standard Chartered views global bonds as core holdings, favoring government bonds over corporate bonds due to the attractive nominal yields of government debt. The institution is overweight on emerging market USD government bonds and local currency government bonds, benefiting from moderate inflation, dovish monetary policy, improved fiscal conditions, and expectations of a weaker dollar [2] Group 3 - For the foreign exchange market, Standard Chartered anticipates that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance on easing policies in the short term, supported by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks. However, over the next 12 months, as the Fed may shift towards easing and other major central banks approach the end of their rate hike cycles, the structural support for the dollar is expected to weaken [2] - Regarding gold, Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position, with target prices of $4,350 per ounce in 3 months and $4,800 per ounce in 12 months. Continuous demand from emerging market central banks and a favorable macro environment are expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [3]

Macro Outlook - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Division released the "Global Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025," indicating that global central bank easing, a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, and a weaker dollar are favorable for risk assets, maintaining a positive outlook on global equities [1] - The bank expects a weaker dollar to benefit the euro, pound, yen, and 5-7 year U.S. dollar bonds, while upgrading emerging market local currency debt to overweight [1] Investment Strategy - The Chief Investment Officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered, Zheng Zifeng, highlighted the current uncertain global investment environment, emphasizing the structural risks of "de-dollarization" and the influx of funds into emerging markets due to a weaker dollar [1] - The bank suggests that investors should diversify not only across asset classes but also geographically to maintain long-term superior returns [1] Fixed Income - Standard Chartered views the bond market as a core investment allocation, overweighting emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and risks associated with U.S. economic growth uncertainty [2] - The bank remains positive on emerging market Asian local currency bonds, UK government bonds (unhedged), and U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities [2] Equities - The bank continues to overweight global equities, citing easing trade tensions and robust earnings growth, despite the impact of tariffs [2] - Asian (excluding Japan) equities have been upgraded to overweight, driven by a weaker dollar attracting more funds into emerging markets [2] Currency Outlook - Standard Chartered anticipates a weaker dollar over the next 6 to 12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend, while the pound shows resilience [2] Commodities - In the gold market, if Middle Eastern tensions are controlled, short-term upside for gold may be limited, but it remains an important strategic hedge [3] - The bank raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $3,400 while maintaining a 12-month forecast of $3,500 [3] - For oil, Standard Chartered expects prices to stabilize around $65 per barrel in the next 3 to 12 months, with geopolitical risks potentially causing short-term spikes [3]