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长久物流(603569):整车物流运输领先企业,反内卷推动公司盈利改善
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-05 14:58
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The logistics industry is transitioning from price competition to high-quality development under the "anti-involution" backdrop, with regulatory policies accelerating industry consolidation and compliant companies gaining market share and pricing power [6][41]. - The company is a leading national automotive logistics service provider, covering a full-service system including complete vehicle transportation, international logistics, and new energy services, which is expected to provide stable revenue and profit growth [6][27]. - The report highlights the significant potential for profit improvement due to the depreciation of previously purchased vehicles and the scarcity of compliant transport capacity, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the company's self-owned transport vehicles [6][42]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 4,175 in 2024 to 6,587 in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.3% [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 80 million yuan in 2024 to 153 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 10.8% in 2025 and 18.1% in 2027 [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.13 yuan in 2024 to 0.25 yuan in 2027 [2]. Business Segments - **Complete Vehicle Transportation**: The company anticipates stable growth in revenue from complete vehicle logistics, driven by steady growth in China's automotive production and sales [8]. - **International Logistics**: The international logistics segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected to reach 27.70 billion yuan by 2027, driven by strong demand for automotive exports, particularly in new energy vehicles [8]. - **New Energy Business**: The new energy segment is projected to see substantial growth, with revenues expected to increase from 2.76 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.95 billion yuan in 2027, benefiting from policy support for new energy storage development [8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a robust market position with a large fleet and extensive transportation network, which is expected to provide a competitive edge in the logistics industry [6][53]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships and collaborations, particularly in international logistics, which enhance its service capabilities and market reach [6][70]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-sales (P/S) valuation approach, comparing the company to U.S. peers in the ground freight industry, indicating that the company's P/S ratio is currently lower than its comparables, justifying the "Buy" rating [7][8].
我是股东—申万宏源证券联合上交所走进沪市上市公司广州发展
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-06-17 01:36
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investor engagement and education through the "I am a Shareholder" initiative, which aims to enhance communication between investors and listed companies, thereby promoting a better understanding of investment value and encouraging active shareholder participation [1][9]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "I am a Shareholder" event was organized by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, focusing on Guangzhou Development Group Co., Ltd. to enhance investor awareness and understanding of quality listed companies [1]. - The event attracted over 20 institutional investors and high-net-worth clients from Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan, providing a new educational experience for investors [1]. Group 2: Company Operations - Investors toured the gas group's dispatch center and new energy production operation center, learning about Guangzhou Development's gas business, which manages the high-pressure pipeline network and natural gas distribution in Guangzhou [2]. - The company has built an integrated industrial chain covering gas sources, receiving stations, pipeline distribution, and energy users, with over 8,000 kilometers of pipelines serving more than 2.4 million natural gas users [2]. Group 3: New Energy Initiatives - The centralized intelligent operation center for new energy has been operational since 2020, utilizing advanced information systems for standardized and intelligent management of energy production [4]. - The company is enhancing its marketing mechanisms and pushing towards lean operations while improving power generation efficiency and reducing losses [4]. Group 4: Investor Interaction - During the event, investors engaged in discussions with company executives about future strategies, operational conditions, and dividend plans, receiving detailed responses from the management [6]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed cash dividends for 26 consecutive years, with an average payout ratio exceeding 40% [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its R&D investment in strategic emerging industries such as new energy, energy storage, and hydrogen energy, aiming to enhance market applications in these areas [11]. - With the national "dual carbon" goals supporting green energy development, the company is adjusting its development strategies to prioritize high-quality projects and regions for new energy investments [12]. - Guangzhou Development aims to become a leading green low-carbon comprehensive smart energy enterprise, focusing on innovation and collaboration across its diverse energy-related businesses [15].