Group 1: Asset Environment and Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that the asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, with the 10-year China bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% and the 10-year US Treasury yield maintaining a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] - The report anticipates that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel, while gold prices may continue to be strong, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce, supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and electricity demand [1] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Investment - Huatai Securities indicates that the current appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance foreign investors' interest in RMB-denominated assets, creating a positive cycle for capital inflows and easing financial conditions [2] - The report notes that despite seasonal declines in capital flows and risk appetite towards the end of the year, the strengthening of the RMB will continue to boost the valuation of both onshore and offshore RMB assets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged nearly 150% this year, driven by strong industrial demand, low global inventories, and its inclusion in key mineral lists [2] - Analysts suggest that silver is breaking away from its traditional role as a "by-product" of gold, with its independent investment logic being re-evaluated by the market [2] - Predictions indicate that silver prices could reach $100 per ounce by 2026, especially if monetary instability increases [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Tokyo's inflation rate has shown a greater-than-expected decline, with the CPI rising 2.3% year-on-year in December, down from 2.8% the previous month, primarily due to easing food price increases and lower energy costs [3] - Despite the slowdown, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, suggesting continued tightening of monetary policy [3] - The Japanese economy is expected to rebound from a contraction in Q3, with forecasts indicating production growth of 1.2% and 1.8% in December and January 2026, respectively [3] Group 5: Japanese Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese Finance Ministry plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long government bonds to the lowest level in 17 years, cutting nearly 20% from the previous fiscal year to approximately 17.4 trillion yen [4] - The total issuance of Japanese government bonds for the next fiscal year is projected to be 180.7 trillion yen, a decrease of nearly 5% from the current fiscal year [4] Group 6: South Korean Currency Intervention - The South Korean won has strengthened against the US dollar due to verbal interventions and measures from authorities, with the government expressing a firm commitment to alleviate pressure on the currency [4] - Recent measures may lead to a dollar sell-off of up to $23 billion, although there are risks that the outcomes may not meet expectations [4]

责任编辑：栎树 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月26日，根据日本内阁周五批准的一项计划，日本财务省下一财年计划发行的超长期政府债券规模将 是17年来最少的。与上一财年相比，日本将减少近五分之一的超长期国债发行量，减至约17.4万亿日元 （约合1,116 亿美元），这反映出新政府对最近几周日本国债收益率连创新高的敏感性。市场预期日本 首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策将进一步加剧日本本就沉重的债务负担，推动日本国债收益率上扬。 下一财年包括超长期债券在内的日本国债发行总额将为180.7万亿日元，比包含追加预算在内的本财年 发债总额减少近5%。财务省没有增加10年期国债的发行量，但将两年期和五年期国债发行量合计提高 了2.4万亿日元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Japan's ultra-long government bond yields signals a potential turning point in Japan's monetary policy and a revaluation of the global capital landscape [1][8]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - As of August 22, the 20-year government bond yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.671%, the highest level since 1999, while the 30-year yield increased by 3.6 basis points to 3.217%, slightly down from an intraday high of 3.236% [1]. - The steepening of the yield curve is driven by rising inflation expectations and concerns over a shift in monetary policy [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Factors - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the third consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressure [4]. - The core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, remains high at 3.4%, suggesting strong domestic demand-driven inflation [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Market expectations are pricing in further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, with ultra-long bonds being particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [5]. - Foreign investment in long-term Japanese government bonds has decreased significantly, with net purchases in July dropping to 480 billion yen, only one-third of June's level [5]. Group 4: Policy Challenges for the Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan faces a significant policy dilemma, needing to balance inflation control with fiscal sustainability, as rapid rate hikes could exacerbate fiscal pressures [6][7]. - A recent survey indicated that 63% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75% by the end of the year [6]. Group 5: Global Economic Context - The global bond market's interconnectedness means that fluctuations in Japanese government bonds are influenced by movements in U.S. and European bond markets [5][7]. - The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, citing uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [7].