Group 1: Asset Environment and Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that the asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, with the 10-year China bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% and the 10-year US Treasury yield maintaining a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] - The report anticipates that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel, while gold prices may continue to be strong, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce, supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and electricity demand [1] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Investment - Huatai Securities indicates that the current appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance foreign investors' interest in RMB-denominated assets, creating a positive cycle for capital inflows and easing financial conditions [2] - The report notes that despite seasonal declines in capital flows and risk appetite towards the end of the year, the strengthening of the RMB will continue to boost the valuation of both onshore and offshore RMB assets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged nearly 150% this year, driven by strong industrial demand, low global inventories, and its inclusion in key mineral lists [2] - Analysts suggest that silver is breaking away from its traditional role as a "by-product" of gold, with its independent investment logic being re-evaluated by the market [2] - Predictions indicate that silver prices could reach $100 per ounce by 2026, especially if monetary instability increases [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Tokyo's inflation rate has shown a greater-than-expected decline, with the CPI rising 2.3% year-on-year in December, down from 2.8% the previous month, primarily due to easing food price increases and lower energy costs [3] - Despite the slowdown, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, suggesting continued tightening of monetary policy [3] - The Japanese economy is expected to rebound from a contraction in Q3, with forecasts indicating production growth of 1.2% and 1.8% in December and January 2026, respectively [3] Group 5: Japanese Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese Finance Ministry plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long government bonds to the lowest level in 17 years, cutting nearly 20% from the previous fiscal year to approximately 17.4 trillion yen [4] - The total issuance of Japanese government bonds for the next fiscal year is projected to be 180.7 trillion yen, a decrease of nearly 5% from the current fiscal year [4] Group 6: South Korean Currency Intervention - The South Korean won has strengthened against the US dollar due to verbal interventions and measures from authorities, with the government expressing a firm commitment to alleviate pressure on the currency [4] - Recent measures may lead to a dollar sell-off of up to $23 billion, although there are risks that the outcomes may not meet expectations [4]

责任编辑：栎树 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月26日，根据日本内阁周五批准的一项计划，日本财务省下一财年计划发行的超长期政府债券规模将 是17年来最少的。与上一财年相比，日本将减少近五分之一的超长期国债发行量，减至约17.4万亿日元 （约合1,116 亿美元），这反映出新政府对最近几周日本国债收益率连创新高的敏感性。市场预期日本 首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策将进一步加剧日本本就沉重的债务负担，推动日本国债收益率上扬。 下一财年包括超长期债券在内的日本国债发行总额将为180.7万亿日元，比包含追加预算在内的本财年 发债总额减少近5%。财务省没有增加10年期国债的发行量，但将两年期和五年期国债发行量合计提高 了2.4万亿日元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government has announced a significant bond issuance plan to fund a new economic stimulus package, raising concerns about fiscal discipline and market reactions to rising bond yields [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Plan - The Japanese cabinet approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen, with 11.7 trillion yen to be covered by new bond issuance [1]. - The government plans to increase the issuance of 2-year and 5-year government bonds by 300 billion yen each, and significantly raise the issuance of short-term treasury bills by 6.3 trillion yen [1][3]. - The total bond issuance for the fiscal year will reach 40.3 trillion yen, a decrease of approximately 4.3% from the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline have led to a rise in long-term bond yields to their highest levels in over two decades [4]. - The demand for 2-year government bonds was weak during the recent auction, with yields climbing to 0.97%, the highest since 2008 [1][5]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 3.53, lower than the previous auction and the 12-month average, indicating reduced investor demand [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The issuance strategy focuses on short-term debt to minimize market impact, as the demand for ultra-long-term bonds has been declining [3]. - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with traders estimating a 57% chance of action in the coming month [5][7]. - Recent economic data, including stable inflation and unexpected increases in industrial output, are supporting the case for a rate hike [7].

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 975.77 CNY per gram, with a 0.80% increase, reaching a high of 977.94 CNY and a low of 958.10 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for paper gold appears bullish [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of key employment and inflation data, causing panic related to credit risks in regional banks, which significantly impacted the U.S. Treasury market [2] - The two-year Treasury yield fell below 3.4%, marking a new low since 2022, while the ten-year Treasury yield experienced its largest drop since April, falling below 4% [2] - This marks the second wave of safe-haven buying in U.S. Treasuries this month, following earlier trade tensions that also prompted significant increases in Treasury prices [2] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 1000 CNY and 1020 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 948 CNY and 960 CNY per gram [3]

Group 1 - The bond market is accustomed to fluctuations, but the significance of these changes is uncertain and may depend on the duration of the trends observed [1][2] - Recent weak ADP employment report, the weakest since March 2023, along with a negative revision to the previous month, has led to market reactions [2] - Two-year yields have dropped more significantly than ten-year yields, indicating a notable shift in the yield curve dynamics [3][6] Group 2 - The decline in two-year yields highlights concerns regarding labor market weakness, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's inflation strategy [4] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve easing have increased, with probabilities exceeding 100% for the next meeting, suggesting a pricing in of more than 25 basis points [5] - The yield curve is steepening as short-term rates have decreased more sharply, indicating a significant market adjustment [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the weak employment data has significantly increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1][7] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of the expected 75,000, and the previous month's figure was revised from an increase of 73,000 to 79,000 [4][5] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, matching expectations, while average hourly wages increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [4][5] Group 2 - The report shows a notable slowdown in job growth compared to July, which added 79,000 jobs, and revisions indicate a negative growth of 13,000 jobs in June [5] - The healthcare sector added 31,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a reduction of 15,000 jobs, impacting overall hiring [5] - Following the release of the employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 96%, with the dollar index dropping nearly 0.8% and gold prices hitting a new record [7][9] Group 3 - Analysts widely agree that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is very high, with some suggesting that the current data has made a rate cut almost certain [9] - The two-year Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 3.5%, the lowest since April, while the ten-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 4.1% [7] - The political implications of the employment data have raised concerns about its credibility, especially following the dismissal of the previous head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the weak U.S. employment data released on September 5, which has significantly increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [2][8]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised from 73,000 to 79,000 [5][6]. - The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, matching expectations, while average hourly wages increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [5][6]. - The report indicated a slowdown in job growth compared to July's addition of 79,000 jobs, with the June data showing a negative growth of 13,000 jobs [6]. Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped nearly 0.8%, while gold prices surged over 1%, reaching a record high of $3,594.76 per ounce [2][8]. - The two-year Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 3.5%, the lowest since April, and the ten-year yield decreased by 4 basis points to 4.1% [8]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to 96% following the employment report [8][10]. - Analysts believe the weak employment data has made a rate cut almost certain, with some suggesting that the current economic conditions warrant a release of monetary policy strength [10].

Core Viewpoint - The rumor of Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Powell caused significant market turmoil, highlighting the latent tail risk associated with such a scenario [1] Market Reaction - The rumor led to a sharp reaction in global financial markets, with the euro/dollar briefly surpassing the 1.1700 mark and a notable drop in two-year Treasury yields, steepening the yield curve [1] - The market quickly reverted after Trump's statement of "unlikely," indicating a temporary panic rather than a fundamental shift [1][2] Economic Indicators - Despite the initial panic, the market did not significantly increase rate cut expectations, with the euro/dollar failing to break key resistance levels [2] - The focus shifted back to macroeconomic fundamentals, with weak PPI data and a CPI anchor suggesting inflation is not low enough to warrant a full pivot to easing by the Fed [2] Future Market Focus - Attention is now on upcoming retail sales and TIC data, which are crucial for assessing foreign interest in U.S. Treasuries [2] - A potential decline in foreign holdings of U.S. debt could support a bearish narrative for the dollar, but until then, the market is expected to consolidate [2] Euro/Dollar Dynamics - The euro/dollar remains around the low 1.16 range, caught between the unlikely Powell scenario and a lack of sufficient delivery on the ambitious EU budget plan [3] - The current market environment is characterized by geopolitical uncertainty, with headlines generating interest but lacking clear direction [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the two-year Treasury yields suggest that overnight interest rates are excessively high [1] Group 1 - The two-year Treasury yield is being used as an indicator of market expectations regarding future interest rates [1] - Yellen's comments reflect concerns about the current level of overnight interest rates and their implications for economic growth [1] - The statement highlights the ongoing discussions about monetary policy and its impact on the financial markets [1]