Group 1 - Foreign investors have shifted to net selling of Japanese stocks for the first time since March, selling 524.3 billion yen (approximately 3.62 billion USD) after 11 consecutive weeks of buying totaling 7.236 trillion yen [1] - Analysts attribute the shift to high market valuations, as the market continues to rise despite weak earnings, leading to concerns about overvaluation [1] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, may also be influencing foreign investors' decisions due to potential impacts on Japan's oil imports and inflation levels [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent net selling, foreign investment in Japanese stocks this quarter has reached approximately 6.81 trillion yen, marking the largest inflow in two years [2] - In the bond market, foreign investors sold 368.8 billion yen of Japanese long-term bonds, ending a three-week buying streak, but purchased 1.5 trillion yen in short-term notes, the highest level in nine weeks [2] - Japanese investors have been net sellers of foreign stocks for six consecutive weeks, selling 88.2 billion yen, while buying about 615.5 billion yen in long-term foreign bonds [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **US Manufacturing and Services PMI**: The S&P US Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 52, exceeding expectations of 51, while the Services PMI was at 53.1, slightly below the expected 53 and previous value of 53.7 [1][2] Core Insights - **US Existing Home Sales**: In May, existing home sales increased by 0.8% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a 1.3% decline. This marks the weakest sales pace for May since 2009. Inventory rose by 6.2% to 1.54 million units, the highest level in five years [3][4] - **Stock Market Volatility**: The implied volatility of the S&P 500 increased in July, particularly on July 3, ahead of the June non-farm payroll data release [6][7] - **Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices**: Goldman Sachs estimates a geopolitical risk premium of $12 per barrel for oil prices. If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz drop by half for a month, Brent crude could reach $110 per barrel. China is identified as the main destination for oil flows from this region [9][10][17] - **Impact of Oil Price Surge**: JPMorgan reports that most geopolitical-driven sell-offs are temporary. Historical data shows that after geopolitical risk events, the S&P 500 index typically rises by 2%, 3%, and 9% over the next 1, 3, and 12 months, respectively [18][19] Additional Important Information - **S&P 500 Earnings Expectations**: The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the S&P 500 has reached a historical high, now exceeding $281 for the next twelve months [23] - **Japanese Bond Market**: Long-term bond yields in Japan have eased from record highs as the government plans to reduce bond issuance more than previously expected [24][25] - **Inflation Drivers**: Research from the Federal Reserve indicates that low inflation post-financial crisis was primarily supply-driven, while high inflation during the pandemic was more demand-driven. Since mid-2022, both demand and supply contributions to inflation have significantly decreased [30][32]

Core Insights - Record foreign investment in Japanese assets occurred in April, with overseas investors purchasing a historic amount of Japanese stocks and long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - In April, overseas investors bought Japanese stocks and long-term bonds worth 8.21 trillion yen (approximately 56.6 billion USD) [1] - This figure represents the largest monthly net inflow of foreign funds into Japan's financial market since the Japanese Ministry of Finance began collecting related data in 1996 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a record influx of foreign investment into Japanese stocks and bonds in April, driven by the aftermath of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies, positioning Japan as a global safe haven for "de-dollarization" trades [1][2] - In April, foreign investors net purchased 8.2 trillion yen (approximately 57 billion USD) in Japanese securities, marking the largest monthly buying spree since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [1] - The unprecedented buying frenzy included net purchases of 25.5 billion USD in Japanese stocks (the largest amount since April 2023) and net purchases of 31.5 billion USD in Japanese long-term bonds (the largest scale since July 2022) [1] Group 2 - The surge in Japanese asset purchases occurred against a backdrop of global investor concerns regarding U.S. policy shifts, trade wars, and Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting a potential influence of de-dollarization trends [2] - There are indications that foreign central banks may be entering the Japanese bond market as part of diversification strategies, seeking liquid markets, with Japan standing out in this regard [2] - A recent survey by Bank of America indicated that fund managers almost unanimously believe Trump's economic policies could lead the U.S. into stagflation, with shorting the dollar becoming a popular trade among them [2]