| 1.上周15个省份的钢厂涉及产线检修、复产、其中检修产线25条、环比增加14条、复产产线2条，环比减少4条；产线检修影响产量3.78万吨，环比增加5.25万吨，预计 | | --- | | 本周产线检修影响产量44.3万吨。 | | 2.多地启动重污染天气位急响立、2月7日17时起，洛阳启动重污染天气橙色（互视频警响应、长沙12月7日20时启动重污染天气 级例应描施。沧州、邯郸、邢台、西安 | | 于12月8日12时启动重污染天气工级应急响应。 | | 3.2025年12月1日-5日，全国螺纹钢均价3326元/吨，周环比上涨1.06%。供应端，螺纹钢周产量189.31万吨，环比下降8.14%，库存503.81万吨，环比下降5.21%; | | 需求端,消费量216.98万吨,环比下降4.81%。 | | 4.12月5日,全国主港铁矿石成交86.40万吨,环比减31.8%;237家主流贸易商建筑钢材成交8.82万吨,环比减6.1%。 | | 5上周，金国90家独立电巡炉钢厂平均产能利用率53.82%，环比上开1.1个百分点，同比上升0.43个百分点；平均开工率67.72%，环比下降1.41个百分点，同比下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of finished steel products are both in a downward phase in the off - season. The investment - end data remains weak and domestic demand is poor. However, exports maintain strong resilience with the advantage of trading at a lower price for higher volume. Currently in the production - reduction stage, the output of rebar has contracted rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction has been repaired. The output of hot - rolled coils is still relatively high, inventory reduction is difficult, and its fundamentals are weaker than rebar. During the recent production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be repaired. It is recommended to operate with caution [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Rebar Futures**: On December 5, 2025, RB2605 closed at 3157, down 18 from the previous day; RB2610 closed at 3192, down 17; RB2601 closed at 3137, down 11. The 05 - 10 spread of rebar was - 35, down 1. The 10 - 01 spread of rebar was - 6. The 05 - contract rebar disk profit was 16, up 17; the 10 - contract rebar disk profit was 62, up 16; the 01 - contract rebar disk profit was 36, up 34 [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 5, 2025, HC2605 closed at 3320, down 15 from the previous day; HC2610 closed at 3329, down 15; HC2601 closed at 3312, down 11. The 05 - 10 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 9, up 3. The 10 - 01 spread of hot - rolled coil was 17, down 4. The HC05 - RB05 spread was 163, up 6; the HC10 - RB10 spread was 137, up 2; the HC01 - RB01 spread was 175, unchanged. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 71, up 23; the 10 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 51, up 18; the 01 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 39, up 34 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Rebar Spot**: On December 5, 2025, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; Nanjing Xicheng rebar was 3420 yuan, unchanged; Shandong Shiheng rebar was 3320 yuan, down 10; Tangshan Tanggang rebar was 3150 yuan, unchanged. The cheapest delivery product was equivalent to 3240 yuan, with 05 - contract basis of 83, 10 - contract basis of 48, and 01 - contract basis of 103 [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: On December 5, 2025, the price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan, unchanged; Lecong Rigang hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan, down 10; Shanghai Rigang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, down 10. The cheapest delivery product was 3300 yuan, with 05 - contract basis of - 20, 10 - contract basis of - 29, and 01 - contract basis of - 12 [2] 3.3 Spot Price Difference and Profit - **Rebar Price Difference and Profit**: The price difference between Shanghai rebar and Beijing rebar was 90, unchanged; between Shanghai rebar and Jinan rebar was - 50, up 10; between Shanghai rebar and Guangzhou rebar was - 250, down 10. The profit of adjusting billet to roll steel was 40, unchanged. The profit of East China rebar was 252, up 1. The profit of East China electric - arc furnace in flat period was - 100, down 170; in valley period was 64, down 170 [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Price Difference and Profit**: The price difference between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 60, down 10; between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Lecong hot - rolled coil was - 20, unchanged; between Shanghai hot - rolled coil and Shanghai rebar was 0, down 10. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 108, up 3. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil was 173, up 1 [2] 3.4 Night Session Review - Futures: RB2601 closed at 3120, RB2605 closed at 3132, HC2601 closed at 3301, HC2605 closed at 3304. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar was - 12 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 3 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in January contract was 181 yuan, and in May contract was 172 yuan. Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3260 (- 10) yuan; the price of Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coil was 3300 (- 10) yuan [2] 3.5 Important Information - Last week, steel mills in 15 provinces had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 25 maintenance production lines, a month - on - month increase of 14, and 2 resumption production lines, a month - on - month decrease of 4. The production affected by production line maintenance was 3.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25 tons. It is expected that the production affected by production line maintenance this week will be 44.3 tons [2] - Many places launched emergency responses for heavy pollution weather. Luoyang launched an orange early - warning response for heavy pollution weather at 17:00 on December 7; Changsha launched a first - level response measure for heavy pollution weather at 20:00 on December 7. Cangzhou, Handan, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched a first - level emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 8 [2] - From December 1 - 5, 2025, the national average price of rebar was 3326 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. On the supply side, the weekly output of rebar was 189.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.14%, and the inventory was 503.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.21%. On the demand side, the consumption was 216.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81% [2] - On December 5, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 86.40 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%; the transaction volume of construction steel products of 237 mainstream traders was 8.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1% [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country was 53.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.43 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] 3.6 Long - Short Logic - Over the weekend, the ex - factory price of some common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. The prices of construction steel in major domestic markets were stable with slight declines, and trading was light. The supply and demand of finished steel products are in a downward phase in the off - season, investment - end data is weak, and domestic demand is poor. Exports maintain strong resilience with the price - for - volume advantage. Currently in the production - reduction stage, rebar output has contracted rapidly and supply - demand contradiction has been repaired. Hot - rolled coil output is still relatively high, inventory reduction is difficult, and fundamentals are weaker than rebar. During the production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be repaired [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - Not clearly stated in the report

Group 1 - The mainstream factory price of ordinary square billets in Tangshan and Qian'an remains stable at 2950 CNY/ton and 2960 CNY/ton respectively, with warehouse spot prices including tax reported at 3030 CNY/ton [3] - The market for steel billets is experiencing weak overall transactions, with downstream finished product prices remaining stable [3] - In the Tangshan section, the main prices for various steel products are stable, including I-beams at 3260 CNY/ton, angle steel at 3250 CNY/ton, and channel steel between 3220-3250 CNY/ton, indicating a slowdown in downstream demand [3] Group 2 - The price of 355 band steel in Tangshan remains stable at a mainstream price of 3170 CNY/ton, while the 145 band steel market also shows stability with a mainstream price of 3200 CNY/ton, although transaction volumes are weak [3] - The market for hot-rolled and cold-rolled base materials is stable, with the mainstream price for 1500 wide ordinary open flat plates at 3240 CNY/ton and manganese open flat plates at 3380 CNY/ton, indicating average transaction activity [3] - The price for medium and thick plates in Tangshan is stable, with ordinary plates (14-20mm) at 3240 CNY/ton and low-alloy plates at 3420 CNY/ton, as the market remains cautious [3] Group 3 - The construction steel market in Tangshan shows stability in early trading, with the price of third-grade rebar at 3160 CNY/ton, third-grade small rebar at 3150 CNY/ton, and thread steel at 3370 CNY/ton, although transactions are not favorable [4]