Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported a growth in turnover scale for the first half of 2025, with a stable performance in operational and service businesses, despite pressure on gross profit margins from turnover [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 587.5 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [1] - Real estate development revenue was 454.8 billion RMB, up 34.7% year-on-year, while operational and service revenue was 132.7 billion RMB, a slight increase of 1.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.2 billion RMB, down 45.2% year-on-year, with a core net profit of approximately 13.8 billion RMB [1] - The gross profit margin was 12.6%, a decrease of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, with development, operational, and service business margins at approximately 0.2%, 77.7%, and 30.0% respectively [1] Group 2: Debt and Financing - As of the end of the first half, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 169.8 billion RMB, reduced by 6.5 billion RMB since the beginning of the year [1] - The pre-debt ratio was 56.1%, and the net debt ratio was 51.2%, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.74 times [1] - The average financing cost decreased to 3.58%, down 42 basis points year-on-year, with cash reserves of 44.67 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Sales and Land Reserves - The company reported a sales amount of 35.01 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 31.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 2.615 million square meters, down 28.5% [2] - As of the end of the first half, the company had unsold turnover amounting to 105.9 billion RMB, covering an area of approximately 854,000 square meters [2] - The total land reserve was 28.4 million square meters, with an equity ratio of 74.4% [2] Group 4: Operational and Service Business - Operational revenue for the first half was 7.01 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with shopping mall revenue accounting for 78.5% [2] - The gross profit margin for operational business was 77.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a rental income increase of 4.9% and an overall occupancy rate of 96.8% [2] - Service revenue was 6.26 billion RMB, with a gross profit margin of 30.0%, and the company actively expanded its construction agency business, adding 8.52 million square meters in the first half [2]

Core Insights - Longfor Group Holdings Limited reported a stable growth in its operations and services business for the first half of 2025, with a significant enhancement in sustainable profitability and cash flow capabilities [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Longfor Group's operations and services business achieved a record revenue of 13.27 billion yuan, with core net profit approximately 4 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit [1] - The operations and services business accounted for 22.6% of Longfor Group's total revenue, serving as a stable source of income, profit, and cash flow [1] Business Segments - The operational business, comprising commercial investment and asset management, generated a non-tax rental income of 7.01 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - The service business segment, primarily focused on property management and smart construction, recorded a non-tax revenue of 6.26 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] Strategic Positioning - Longfor Group's four operational channels under its business model maintain a leading position in their respective segments, continuing a trend of stable growth [1] - The company relies on internal growth drivers and self-circulation through its business model, characterized by low leverage, strong operations, and positive cash flow, to pursue a high-quality development path [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit decline in 2024 are primarily due to the development business, while the operational and service segments show steady growth, contributing 70% to gross profit [2][12]. - The company is expected to face a peak in public debt repayment in 2025, but operational loans are anticipated to provide support for repayment [12]. - By the end of 2025, the company's financial pressure is expected to significantly ease, leading to a potential increase in free cash flow and improved investment cycles [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, total revenue was 127.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29%, with a pre-tax profit of 18.7 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year [2][3]. - The core net profit for 2024 was 6.97 billion yuan, reflecting a 38% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.96, 1.05, and 1.14 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.5, 8.7, and 8.0 [12][3]. Business Segment Analysis - The development business faced a 35% revenue decline in 2024, while operational and service businesses grew, with operational revenue increasing by 5% and service revenue by 10% [2][10]. - The company plans to open 11 shopping centers in 2025, maintaining the same number as in the previous year, indicating stability in the operational segment [11][12]. - The debt scale has been systematically reduced, with a total interest-bearing debt of 176.3 billion yuan at the end of 2024, down 8% from the previous year [12][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 9.83 HKD, with a market capitalization of 67.6 billion HKD [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 6.4%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.1% [4][14]. - The projected PE ratios for the upcoming years suggest a potential undervaluation, with the company trading at lower multiples compared to historical averages [12][14].