据南都记者了解，此前，顺丰曾探索顺丰同城骑手和快递员在业务上协同的做法，并取得成效。据顺丰 同城业绩披露：2024年，顺丰同城来自最后一公里配送服务（注：该服务主要面向快递企业和物流服务 商，通过提供灵活弹性的运力网络，助力传统快递网络提升时效）的收入增长32.5%至66.25亿元，其中 一大原因是与快递场景的生态融合，派件环节提供支持的服务规模及占比提升。2024年全年，顺丰同城 日均揽收环节支持服务订单量突破150万单。 有行业人士分析，不排除京东物流未来会持续寻找全职外卖骑手和快递员协同的机会。在履约方面，外 卖配送和物流原有的最后一公里配送可以在高峰时段互补，比如快递员派件高峰是在11点前，外卖是在 午餐和晚餐，协同协作，进一步应对多样化需求和提升客户体验，提升京东物流行业服务能力。借助京 东物流丰富的一线员工管理经验，有助于全职外卖骑手进一步职业化、提升全职骑手服务水平，帮助提 升京东外卖体验。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 此外，南都记者从有关人员处了解到，在招募全职骑手之外，京东物流还在营业部设立副站长岗位，对 全职骑手进行日常的管理，但全职骑手的订单、派单逻辑等不会发生变化。此举也不意味着京东物流 ...

顺丰同城（9699.HK）事件点评 最后一公里配送需求超预期，上修年度关联交易额上限 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 6 月 13 日，为满足最后一公里配送服务增加的需求， 公司拟修订截至 2025 年及 2026 年 12 月 31 日止年度提供最后一公里配送服务 的原年度上限。修订后 2025 和 2026 年的关连交易年度上限分别为 128.45 和 205.51 亿元，同比分别为+101.7%和+60.0%，较原关联金额上限分别增长 33.90 和 82.81 亿元，较原关联交易金额上限分别+35.9%和+67.5%。 ➢ 修订原因：1）最后一公里配送服务的需求增速超预期，2024 年历史交易金 额达 63.69 亿元，较 2023 年历史交易金额 47.77 亿元，同比+33.3%，关联交 易金额实现快速增长； 2）公司的弹性运力网络及强劲的交付能力能更好满足客户的最后一公里配送需 求，继而实现最后一公里配送服务收入的快速提升。业务收入快速提升主要得益 于：a）公司通过发展电商退货上门揽收的能力，积极把握电商平台退货率提升； b）持续扩张服务网络、骑手团队并渗透至下沉市 ...

顺丰同城（9699.HK）事件点评 最后一公里配送需求超预期，上修年度关联交易额上限 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 6 月 13 日，为满足最后一公里配送服务增加的需求， 公司拟修订截至 2025 年及 2026 年 12 月 31 日止年度提供最后一公里配送服务 的原年度上限。修订后 2025 和 2026 年的关连交易年度上限分别为 128.45 和 205.51 亿元，同比分别为+101.7%和+60.0%，较原关联金额上限分别增长 33.90 和 82.81 亿元，较原关联交易金额上限分别+35.9%和+67.5%。 ➢ 修订原因：1）最后一公里配送服务的需求增速超预期，2024 年历史交易金 额达 63.69 亿元，较 2023 年历史交易金额 47.77 亿元，同比+33.3%，关联交 易金额实现快速增长； 2）公司的弹性运力网络及强劲的交付能力能更好满足客户的最后一公里配送需 求，继而实现最后一公里配送服务收入的快速提升。业务收入快速提升主要得益 于：a）公司通过发展电商退货上门揽收的能力，积极把握电商平台退货率提升； b）持续扩张服务网络、骑手团队并渗透至下沉市 ...

Core Insights - The current predicament of Qudian is attributed to a combination of structural issues, including regulatory misjudgments, strategic reversals, aggressive investments, and imbalanced marketing, rather than solely the initial business model risks [1][13] - Qudian has attempted multiple transformations but continues to struggle in finding a sustainable path forward, reflecting its ongoing difficulties [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Qudian reported revenue of 25.8 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 53.76%, while net profit turned positive at 150 million yuan, primarily driven by non-recurring income from investments [1][4] - The "last mile" delivery business, a key focus area, generated only 23.8 million yuan in revenue in Q1 2025, down from 53.8 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a substantial contraction [1][11] - The financial performance has shown a downward trend since 2020, with revenue dropping from 3.688 billion yuan in 2020 to 577 million yuan in 2022, marking the first comprehensive loss [4] Business Strategy and Transformation - Qudian's strategic direction remains unclear as it continues to frequently adjust its business focus, reflecting the challenges it faces in its transformation efforts [2] - The company has ventured into various sectors, including online education, automotive retail, community group buying, live e-commerce, and prepared meals, but most attempts have failed due to unclear positioning and lack of core competitiveness [3][4] - The "last mile" delivery business, which was expected to be a major revenue source, has shown high customer concentration, with the top four clients contributing over 80% of total revenue, leading to significant risks if any major client is lost [11][12] Asset and Liability Overview - Qudian maintains a strong asset base, with cash, restricted cash, time deposits, and short-term investments accounting for over 70% of total assets since 2022, indicating a solid financial foundation [7][9] - As of Q1 2025, total liabilities were reported at 1.294 billion yuan, representing 10.23% of total assets, suggesting a manageable debt level [10]

Core Viewpoint - Qudian Inc. is contemplating winding down its last-mile delivery service due to intense competition that has led to a significant revenue decline in the first quarter of the year [2][3][7]. Business Performance - The last-mile delivery business experienced a revenue drop of over 50% in the first quarter, falling from 55.8 million yuan to 25.8 million yuan year-over-year [13]. - Despite the losses in the last-mile delivery segment, Qudian reported a profit of 150 million yuan for the first quarter, primarily due to 165 million yuan in interest income from its cash holdings [14]. Competitive Landscape - Qudian faced stiff competition from established local rivals in Australia and New Zealand, as well as from Chinese logistics companies building their own infrastructure abroad [5][6]. - The last-mile delivery market in China is highly competitive, dominated by several companies that are rapidly expanding their global networks [4]. Financial Position - Qudian's cash and restricted cash increased to 5.6 billion yuan at the end of March, up from 3.5 billion yuan at the end of 2022, indicating strong cash management [15]. - The company has been actively buying back shares, reducing its outstanding American depositary shares (ADS) from 265 million to 172 million over the past three years [8][15]. Shareholder Sentiment - Shareholders did not react negatively to the announcement of the potential business closure, with stock prices remaining stable [9]. - Qudian has notable institutional shareholders, including UBS and Morgan Stanley, who may be more interested in short-term gains from potential privatization efforts [10]. Historical Context - Qudian has a history of entering and exiting various business sectors, including consumer loans, education, and prepared foods, often due to competitive pressures [12]. - The company initially found success in fintech but shifted away from that model following regulatory crackdowns in China [11].

Company Updates - The company announced that during the "May Day" period, the total business volume for SF Same City increased by 87% year-on-year, with supermarket and department store volume up by 177%, beverage volume up by 106%, and last-mile delivery volume up by 102% [1] - According to Questmobile data, the average daily usage of the rider app in April increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the instant delivery sector [1] Industry Commentary - The growth in the takeaway industry is driving demand for last-mile delivery, suggesting that the company's same-city delivery B2B business volume may exceed previous expectations [1] - Questmobile data shows that the average daily usage of KFC and McDonald's increased by 31% and 30% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the takeaway sector [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its refined operational capabilities and flexible logistics network, leading to increased order volumes from key accounts (KA) [1] - The company anticipates that its revenue from merchants will exceed 24% by 2025, with KA business growth expected to be even higher [1] - The company's B2C business is expected to grow steadily alongside macroeconomic demand, supported by synergies with its express delivery services [1] Last-Mile Delivery Insights - The last-mile delivery business is projected to continue contributing revenue beyond expectations due to increased demand from e-commerce returns and the delivery of national subsidy products [2] - The integration of the company's logistics network with its parent company's express network is expected to enhance penetration rates and collaborative effects, further boosting profitability [2] - The company anticipates that its last-mile delivery volume will contribute significantly to revenue growth [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively, to 20.343 billion and 25.711 billion [2] - Despite uncertainties in pricing trends within the takeaway industry, the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 250 million and 406 million [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 13.50, which corresponds to 0.6x and 0.4x P/S for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a rally, with SF Express (09699.HK) showing significant performance, rising over 33% since May 9, 2023, and reaching a market capitalization of HKD 9.8 billion, driven by increased transaction volumes and a competitive landscape in the instant delivery sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - SF Express has seen a substantial increase in its stock price, with a cumulative rise of over 33% since May 9, 2023, and a single-day transaction volume of nearly HKD 350 million on May 13, 2023 [1]. - The company's business data during the "May Day" holiday indicates a year-on-year growth of 87% in overall order volume, with significant increases in specific categories such as supermarket orders (up 177%) and beverage orders (up 106%) [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition among major platforms like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com in the instant retail sector has intensified, leading to an increase in order volumes for third-party delivery platforms [1][2]. - Leading chain brands are increasingly opting for independent third-party delivery platforms to ensure service stability and reduce reliance on traffic platforms, as exemplified by Luckin Coffee's standardized delivery service provided by SF Express across various platforms [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - SF Express reported a revenue of CNY 15.746 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.1%, and a net profit of CNY 132 million, marking a significant increase of 161.8% [3]. - The company is recognized as the only third-party delivery enterprise in the industry that has achieved high revenue growth while maintaining continuous profitability [3].