Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains a "buy" rating for SF Express, with expectations for continued revenue growth driven by deepening in key accounts, expansion in mid-tier markets, and penetration in lower-tier markets [1] - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 33.6%/23.6%/17.7% for the years 2025-2027, with adjusted net profit growth of 88.4%/71.9%/51.2% during the same period [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%, with revenue from B-end and C-end same-city delivery services reaching 4.5 billion and 1.3 billion yuan respectively, showing growth rates of 55% and 13% [2] - The number of active merchants on the B-end platform reached 850,000, a year-on-year increase of 55%, with significant growth in non-food categories such as tea, supermarkets, pharmaceuticals, and maternal and infant products [2] Group 3 - The last-mile delivery business generated revenue of 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57%, driven by deep collaboration with SF Group's trunk network and increased demand during peak periods [3] - Daily average order volume in the collection segment increased by 150% year-on-year, supported by the rise in e-commerce parcel delivery and various local logistics scenarios [3] Group 4 - The company reported a gross margin of 6.7% and a net profit of 137 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 120%, with a net profit margin of 1.3%, up 0.4 percentage points [4] - Profitability improvements are attributed to scale effects from increased order volume, enhanced network density, and cost reductions from refined management practices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SF Express (09699), highlighting continued revenue growth driven by deepening key account (KA) engagement, mid-tier expansion, and penetration into lower-tier markets, with profit growth supported by increased order density, AI scheduling, and the scaling of unmanned vehicles [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49% [2] - Revenue from B-end same-city delivery services, C-end same-city delivery services, and last-mile delivery business reached 4.5 billion, 1.3 billion, and 4.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 55%, 13%, and 57% [2] - The number of active merchants on the B-end platform reached 850,000, a 55% increase year-on-year, with county-level merchants doubling their daily order volume [2] Group 2: Last-Mile Delivery Growth - Last-mile business revenue in H1 2025 was 4.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 57% year-on-year increase [3] - Growth was driven by deep collaboration with SF Group's trunk network, with rapid increases in e-commerce parcel delivery scale and proportion [3] - Daily order volume in the collection segment increased by 150% year-on-year during peak periods such as nights, holidays, and shopping festivals [3] Group 3: Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin in H1 2025 was 6.7%, with a net profit of 137 million yuan, representing a 120% year-on-year increase [4] - The net profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 1.3% [4] - Profitability enhancement was primarily due to scale effects from increased order volume, improved network density, and cost reductions from refined management [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Qudian (QD.US) reported a significant decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with a year-over-year decrease of 93.5% to $490,000, primarily due to intensified industry competition affecting last-mile delivery sales [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 311.8 million (approximately $43.5 million) for Q2 2025, compared to RMB 99.8 million in Q2 2024 [1] - Qudian plans to gradually cease its last-mile delivery business and focus on business transformation while maintaining prudent cash management to ensure a robust balance sheet [1] Group 2 - Interest and investment net income increased by 392.3% year-over-year to RMB 440.5 million, mainly due to higher investment income in Q2 2025 [1] - The company reported a net cash used in operating activities of $200,000 for Q2 2025 [1] - Operating loss for Q2 2025 was RMB 113.9 million, compared to RMB 57.4 million in Q2 2024, attributed to the gradual reduction of business and increased depreciation and property tax expenses after the completion of headquarters construction [1] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $562.4 million and restricted cash of $109.2 million [2]

Core Insights - The current predicament of Qudian is attributed to a combination of structural issues, including regulatory misjudgments, strategic reversals, aggressive investments, and imbalanced marketing, rather than solely the initial business model risks [1][13] - Qudian has attempted multiple transformations but continues to struggle in finding a sustainable path forward, reflecting its ongoing difficulties [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Qudian reported revenue of 25.8 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 53.76%, while net profit turned positive at 150 million yuan, primarily driven by non-recurring income from investments [1][4] - The "last mile" delivery business, a key focus area, generated only 23.8 million yuan in revenue in Q1 2025, down from 53.8 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a substantial contraction [1][11] - The financial performance has shown a downward trend since 2020, with revenue dropping from 3.688 billion yuan in 2020 to 577 million yuan in 2022, marking the first comprehensive loss [4] Business Strategy and Transformation - Qudian's strategic direction remains unclear as it continues to frequently adjust its business focus, reflecting the challenges it faces in its transformation efforts [2] - The company has ventured into various sectors, including online education, automotive retail, community group buying, live e-commerce, and prepared meals, but most attempts have failed due to unclear positioning and lack of core competitiveness [3][4] - The "last mile" delivery business, which was expected to be a major revenue source, has shown high customer concentration, with the top four clients contributing over 80% of total revenue, leading to significant risks if any major client is lost [11][12] Asset and Liability Overview - Qudian maintains a strong asset base, with cash, restricted cash, time deposits, and short-term investments accounting for over 70% of total assets since 2022, indicating a solid financial foundation [7][9] - As of Q1 2025, total liabilities were reported at 1.294 billion yuan, representing 10.23% of total assets, suggesting a manageable debt level [10]

Company Updates - The company announced that during the "May Day" period, the total business volume for SF Same City increased by 87% year-on-year, with supermarket and department store volume up by 177%, beverage volume up by 106%, and last-mile delivery volume up by 102% [1] - According to Questmobile data, the average daily usage of the rider app in April increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the instant delivery sector [1] Industry Commentary - The growth in the takeaway industry is driving demand for last-mile delivery, suggesting that the company's same-city delivery B2B business volume may exceed previous expectations [1] - Questmobile data shows that the average daily usage of KFC and McDonald's increased by 31% and 30% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the takeaway sector [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its refined operational capabilities and flexible logistics network, leading to increased order volumes from key accounts (KA) [1] - The company anticipates that its revenue from merchants will exceed 24% by 2025, with KA business growth expected to be even higher [1] - The company's B2C business is expected to grow steadily alongside macroeconomic demand, supported by synergies with its express delivery services [1] Last-Mile Delivery Insights - The last-mile delivery business is projected to continue contributing revenue beyond expectations due to increased demand from e-commerce returns and the delivery of national subsidy products [2] - The integration of the company's logistics network with its parent company's express network is expected to enhance penetration rates and collaborative effects, further boosting profitability [2] - The company anticipates that its last-mile delivery volume will contribute significantly to revenue growth [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively, to 20.343 billion and 25.711 billion [2] - Despite uncertainties in pricing trends within the takeaway industry, the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 250 million and 406 million [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 13.50, which corresponds to 0.6x and 0.4x P/S for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price [2]