Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The primary task of "anti-involution" in credit issuance is to abandon the scale obsession, reduce supply-demand contradictions, and avoid the formation of capital turnover due to "abnormally low" interest rate loans [1][11] - The implementation of credit "anti-involution" faces a game between "policy guidance vs. assessment system," where the central bank's tolerance and the banks' KPI assessments play crucial roles [1][11] - The report indicates that this year may see the smallest decline in loan interest rates since the LPR reform, with corporate and housing loan rates stabilizing at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively from January to July [3][23] Summary by Sections 1. "Anti-involution" and Its Challenges - The "anti-involution" movement in credit issuance is aimed at reducing the emphasis on scale and addressing supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on avoiding low-rate loans that lead to capital inefficiencies [1][11] - The central bank maintains two bottom lines regarding credit issuance: weakening scale does not mean abandoning it, and it is cautious about the "balance sheet reduction" of state-owned banks [11][14] 2. Credit Issuance Dynamics - The report highlights three main trends in credit issuance under the "anti-involution" framework: 1. A clear tendency for "front-loading" credit issuance, with banks concentrating limited project reserves for early-year disbursement [15] 2. A growing divide in credit issuance between large and small banks, with policy banks showing higher credit issuance while smaller banks face negative growth [16][18] 3. Significant "timing effects" in credit issuance, with stronger performance at the end of the quarter and weaker performance at the beginning and middle [19][22] 3. Interest Rate Trends - The report notes that the loan interest rate decline has been minimal this year, with rates stabilizing and reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [3][23] - Regulatory authorities are shifting focus from traditional interest rate cuts to structural monetary policy tools and fiscal subsidies to lower financing costs for the real economy [24]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent decision to implement fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry operating loans aims to reduce financing costs and stimulate consumer demand, amidst a backdrop of weak recovery in domestic consumption [3][5][8]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans was announced by the State Council, with banks required to lower financing costs in response [3][5]. - The policy is expected to focus on large consumption areas such as home decoration, household appliances, and automobiles, with potential subsidies modeled after local practices [8][10]. - The specifics of the subsidy, including the proportion and limits, are still pending regulatory clarification [6][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - There is speculation on whether interest rates for consumption loans will drop below 3% again, following previous regulatory measures to prevent price wars [5][6]. - Industry insiders suggest that the subsidy should not be viewed as a new price war, but rather as a means to balance risk and cost while supporting consumer demand [9][10]. - The average interest rate may decrease, but it is anticipated that the benefits will primarily target a specific segment of consumers rather than a blanket reduction [6][9]. Group 3: Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are advised to adjust their strategies, including reducing capital requirements and risk weights for personal consumption loans and credit cards [10]. - There is a call for enhanced methods to manage non-performing consumer loans and to expedite their disposal to alleviate financial burdens [10]. - Suggestions include supporting financial institutions in writing off consumer loans and providing fiscal subsidies for these write-offs, as well as broadening financing channels for various financial entities [10].

或拉低平均利率而非普降。 日前，国务院常务会议宣布对个人消费贷款及服务业经营贷实施财政贴息，工、农、中、建四大行迅速 响应。此时距监管部门叫停低于3%的消费贷价格战仅过去数月，市场正密切关注"反内卷"背景下银行 如何合规降低实际融资成本，以及贴息后居民信贷可获得性的变化。 业内人士指出，银行要走出困局，先得改思路，别把贴息又当成新一轮价格战。建议商业银行阶段性降 低个人消费贷款和信用卡授信的资本占用与风险权重，同时丰富金融机构处置消费信贷不良资产的手 段，加快不良资产处置，减轻发展包袱。 消费贷利率会再度下破3%吗？ 政策持续托举下，今年国内消费仅呈弱修复。多省半年报把消费扩张列为GDP回升主因，但居民需求仍 显疲软。央行发布的数据显示，上半年住户贷款仅增1.17万亿元，其中经营性贷款占9239亿元，短期消 费贷增速有限。 在此背景下，7月31日，国务院常务会议决定对个人消费贷给予财政贴息，并要求银行同步让利，以降 低融资成本。市场随即关注利率会否再度跌破3%。此前两会期间监管部门提出"提额延时"政策，银行 曾将额度提至50万元、期限延至7年，利率一度下探至2.5%；为防止价格战，监管已于4月1日叫停3%以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent decision to implement fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry operating loans aims to reduce financing costs and stimulate consumer demand amidst a weak recovery in domestic consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans is expected to alleviate the credit burden for residents with genuine consumption needs, acting as a form of "national subsidy" in the financial sector [4]. - The policy is anticipated to focus on large consumption areas such as home decoration, household appliances, and automobiles, with potential lessons drawn from local experiences in places like Chongqing and Sichuan [4][5]. - Specific details regarding the subsidy rates, limits, and loan purposes are still pending regulatory clarification [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - There is speculation on whether consumption loan rates will drop below 3% again, following previous regulatory measures that halted pricing wars [2]. - Major state-owned banks are expected to apply the subsidy in a market-oriented manner, primarily benefiting credit-worthy middle-tier customers rather than a blanket reduction in rates [2][5]. - The banking sector is advised to avoid treating the subsidy as a new pricing war and instead focus on establishing clear industry standards and risk-based pricing [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are encouraged to lower the capital requirements and risk weights for personal consumption loans and credit card lending temporarily, while also enhancing methods for managing non-performing consumer loans [5]. - Suggestions include supporting financial institutions in writing off consumer loans and providing fiscal subsidies for these write-offs, as well as improving consumer credit records [5]. - There is a call for diversifying funding and capital-raising channels for banks and consumer finance companies to enhance their lending capabilities [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst positive macroeconomic policies and ongoing support for consumption and technology [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the PB ratio at 0.73 times and a dividend yield of 4.09%, indicating strong potential for investment [5][28]. - The resumption of VAT on newly issued government bonds is expected to impact banks' income and asset allocation, leading to a decrease in actual comprehensive yields for various bonds [11][10]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is anticipated to benefit retail banking operations, stimulating credit demand [16][5]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting new productive forces, which could benefit retail and technology finance sectors [9][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with a decline of 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index [5][17]. - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank (+2.43%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank (+1.74%) showed notable gains [18][5]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of August 1, 2025, the banking sector's PB ratio stands at 0.73, reflecting a 43.98% discount compared to the overall A-share market [28][5]. - The report lists several banks with strong performance potential, including Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398), Agricultural Bank (601288), and Postal Savings Bank (601658) [37][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valued joint-stock banks and quality regional banks are gaining attention from active funds, with a focus on the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [37][5]. - The overall positive accumulation of fundamental factors in the banking sector indicates a potential turning point in performance [37][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value and positive fundamental factors accumulating [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the banking index declining only 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index. Notably, state-owned banks showed a positive performance with a 0.80% increase [5][17]. - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support bank credit and enhance the operating environment for banks [7][8]. - The restoration of VAT on newly issued government bonds is anticipated to increase banks' holding costs and affect their asset allocation strategies, leading to a decline in the actual comprehensive yield of various bonds [10][11]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is expected to benefit retail banking, stimulating credit demand and enhancing market vitality [16][37]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with a commitment to implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, which will benefit retail and technology finance businesses [9]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector's performance was relatively stable, with state-owned banks showing resilience. The overall banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.73, and the dividend yield was 4.09% as of August 1, 2025 [5][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's basic positive factors are continuously accumulating, and an inflection point in performance is expected. It recommends focusing on the effectiveness of a package of policies and the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [5][37]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [5][37].