今天上午，近期的三大人气板块——科技、有色金属、新能源，集体调整。 中兴通讯9月26日在互动易平台表示，2025年上半年，公司服务器及存储收入同比增长超200%，其中AI服务器收入占比55%。公司将继续加深与互联网和 金融行业头部客户的战略合作，推动通用计算、智能计算及信创服务器等产品的规模化应用，并深化电力、交通等重点行业的业务布局，进一步提升算力 产品的市场份额。 上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.51%，深证成指下跌1.85%，创业板指下跌3.4%。市场半日成交额超1.65万亿元。 科技股方面，半导体产业链跌幅居前，中芯国际下跌7.35%，华虹公司、海光信息、芯原股份等龙头股大跌。 中芯国际昨天上午盘中创下历史新高，下午股价持续下跌，"多家券商将中芯国际折算率调整为0"的消息被市场视为下跌诱因。 比亚迪也曾发生过类似情形。2022年6月13日，比亚迪上午冲高，股价创当时的历史新高，午后持续下跌，当天市场传出"有券商将比亚迪的保证金折算率 由60%调低至0"的消息。比亚迪在随后的一段时间，呈现高位区间震荡态势。 通信设备龙头中兴通讯，昨天涨超9%，今天上午大涨5.88%，成交额为180亿元，居A股第一，盘中最高涨 ...

比亚迪（002594）也曾发生过类似情形。2022年6月13日，比亚迪上午冲高，股价创当时的历史新高，午后持续下跌，当天市场传出"有券商将比亚迪的保 证金折算率由60%调低至0"的消息。比亚迪在随后的一段时间，呈现高位区间震荡态势。 通信设备龙头中兴通讯，昨天涨超9%，今天上午大涨5.88%，成交额为180亿元，居A股第一，盘中最高涨至53.3元/股。 | | | 11:29 52.91 44 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11:29 52.91 276 | | | | 11:29 52.92 247 | | | | 11:29 52.92 141 | | 46.66 | | -6.64% 11:29 52.92 84 | | 09:30 | 11:30 | 15:00 11:29 52.91 199 | 中兴通讯9月26日在互动易平台表示，2025年上半年，公司服务器及存储收入同比增长超200%，其中AI服务器收入占比55%。公司将继续加深与互联网和 金融行业头部客户的战略合作，推动通用计算、智能计算及信创服务器等产品的规模化应用，并深化电力、交通等重点行业的业务布局，进一步提升算 ...

今天上午，近期的三大人气板块——科技、有色金属、新能源，集体调整。 科技股方面，半导体产业链跌幅居前，中芯国际下跌7.35%，华虹公司、海光信息、芯原股份等龙头股大跌。 中芯国际昨天上午盘中创下历史新高，下午股价持续下跌，"多家券商将中芯国际折算率调整为0"的消息被市场视为下跌诱因。 比亚迪也曾发生过类似情形。2022年6月13日，比亚迪上午冲高，股价创当时的历史新高，午后持续下跌，当天市场传出"有券商将比亚迪的保证金折算率 由60%调低至0"的消息。比亚迪在随后的一段时间，呈现高位区间震荡态势。 通信设备龙头中兴通讯，昨天涨超9%，今天上午大涨5.88%，成交额为180亿元，居A股第一，盘中最高涨至53.3元/股。 | | | 11:29 52.91 44 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11:29 52.91 276 | | | | 11:29 52.92 247 | | | | 11:29 52.92 141 | | 46.66 | | -6.64% 11:29 52.92 84 | | 09:30 | 11:30 | 15:00 11:29 52.91 199 | 中兴通讯9月 ...

Group 1: Film Industry Insights - The National Day box office reached 1.808 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 14.1% compared to 2024 [9] - The number of viewers and average ticket price were 49.335 million and 36.6 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% and 9.4% respectively [9] - The box office trend during the holiday showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with a notable increase of 20.8% on October 7 [9] - Key films such as "The Volunteer Army" and "731" performed well, contributing significantly to the overall box office [9] - Policy support for content supply recovery and the application of AIGC technology are expected to enhance efficiency in the industry [9] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The investment focus in the banking sector is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with quality bank stocks showing good long-term investment value [10] - U.S. and Indian bank indices have maintained high PB valuations, reflecting strong economic growth, although they have not achieved excess returns since 2020 [11] - Japanese and European bank indices have shown recovery since 2021, benefiting from policy stimuli that ended the zero/negative interest rate era [11] - In contrast, the Korean banking index remains low at around 0.65x PB, while China's banking index is at approximately 0.53x, indicating market pessimism [11] - A total of 102 out of 154 banks in the analyzed markets outperformed the market index, highlighting the importance of selective stock picking [12] Group 3: Insurance Sector Risk Assessment - Tianan Insurance's bond default marks a significant risk exposure in the insurance sector, reflecting a trend towards breaking rigid payment structures in China's financial market [13] - The default is expected to accelerate the clearing of risks among smaller insurance companies, leading to a more optimized industry landscape [13] Group 4: AI and E-commerce Service Providers - E-commerce service providers are facing operational bottlenecks due to the fading online growth, prompting a shift towards self-owned brands and AI technology integration [14][15] - Companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology are successfully developing their own brands and enhancing operational capabilities through AI [15] - The focus on self-owned brands and AI integration is seen as a critical competitive advantage for future growth in the sector [15][16] Group 5: ZTE Corporation Overview - ZTE is actively participating in the construction of intelligent computing infrastructure, aiming to become a leader in domestic computing and connectivity [18] - The company reported a revenue of 71.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, although net profit decreased by 11.5% [18] - ZTE's second revenue stream, represented by computing and terminal products, has seen nearly 100% growth, contributing over 35% to total revenue [18] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI infrastructure, with significant investments expected from major cloud service providers [17]

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities has initiated coverage on ZTE Corporation (00763), recognizing it as the fourth largest telecommunications equipment supplier globally, with a stable operator network business and a promising second growth curve from computing and terminal businesses, assigning a "Buy" rating [1] Business Segments - **Connection Business**: The operator network business remains stable, achieving a gross margin of 52.94% in H1 2025, serving as a significant cash flow source. The company is proactively advancing 5G-A technology and promoting the deployment of 400G optical networks [2] - **Computing Business**: The emergence of AI large models has generated substantial demand for computing power. The company is seizing this opportunity by expanding its computing infrastructure-related business, which includes servers, storage, switches, and data center products. In H1 2025, revenue from the government and enterprise sector doubled, making it a core growth driver for the company [2] - **Terminal Business**: The company adheres to the "AI for All" philosophy, continuously expanding the application of AI technology in terminal devices, particularly in the smartphone sector. In H1 2025, the company launched the world's first full-size AI smartphone, Nubia Z70 Ultra, which is expected to enhance user experience and increase the shipment volume of AI terminal products [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities has initiated coverage on ZTE Corporation (00763), recognizing it as the fourth largest telecommunications equipment supplier globally, with a stable operator network business and a promising second growth curve from computing and terminal businesses, assigning a "Buy" rating [1] Business Segments - **Connection Business**: The operator network business remains solid, achieving a gross margin of 52.94% in H1 2025, serving as a significant cash flow source. The company is also advancing in 5G-A technology and promoting the deployment of 400G optical networks [2] - **Computing Business**: The emergence of AI large models has created substantial demand for computing power. The company is seizing this opportunity by expanding its computing infrastructure-related business, which includes servers, storage, switches, and data center products. In H1 2025, revenue from the government and enterprise sector doubled, making it a core growth driver [2] - **Terminal Business**: The company is implementing the "AI for All" concept, continuously expanding AI technology applications in terminal devices, particularly in the smartphone sector. In H1 2025, the company launched the world's first full-size AI smartphone, Nubia Z70 Ultra, which is expected to enhance user experience and increase AI terminal product shipments [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the AI trend, with its computing and terminal businesses likely to initiate a new growth phase [6] - The company has a solid market position, ranking fourth globally and second domestically in the telecommunications equipment market, with an 11% market share [8] - The company is transitioning towards a "connectivity + computing" model, with significant growth in its enterprise business, particularly in server and storage products [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 124,251 million RMB - 2024: 121,299 million RMB - 2025E: 138,475 million RMB - 2026E: 156,636 million RMB - 2027E: 174,408 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are: - 2024: -2.38% - 2025E: 14.16% - 2026E: 13.11% - 2027E: 11.35% [7] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2023: 9,326 million RMB - 2024: 8,425 million RMB - 2025E: 8,380 million RMB - 2026E: 8,937 million RMB - 2027E: 10,379 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are: - 2024: -9.66% - 2025E: -0.54% - 2026E: 6.65% - 2027E: 16.14% [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) projections are: - 2024: 1.76 RMB - 2025E: 1.75 RMB - 2026E: 1.87 RMB - 2027E: 2.17 RMB [7] Business Segments - The company is focusing on three main business areas: operator networks, government and enterprise business, and consumer products [8] - The operator network business has a stable foundation, with a gross margin of 52.94% in the first half of 2025, serving as a significant cash flow source [8] - The enterprise business has seen a doubling in revenue, driven by increased investment in computing infrastructure by domestic and international clients [8] - The terminal business is expanding with the introduction of AI technology in devices, including the launch of the Nubia Z70 Ultra, the world's first AI phone with embedded DeepSeek-R1 [8] Valuation and Comparables - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 83.80 billion RMB, 89.37 billion RMB, and 103.79 billion RMB, respectively [8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 17.57, 16.45, and 14.17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8] - Comparable companies' average P/E for 2025 is 45.40 [8]

2025 年 09 月 29 日 服务器算力业务未来可期，政企业务表现亮眼 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：何鹏程 | S1050525070002 | | --- | --- | | hepc@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：石俊烨 | S1050125060011 | | shijy@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-09-26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 44.47 | | 总市值（亿元） | 2127 | | 总股本（百万股） | 4784 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 4027 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 28.66-48 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 5698.38 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 中兴通讯 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 ▌运营商业务稳步发展，政企业务板块表现亮眼 运营商网络板块，2025 年上半年，公司运营商网络营业收入 350.64 亿元，同比减少 5.99%，主要由于无线接入产品收入 下降、服务器及存储收入增长综合影响；毛利率 52.94%，同 比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage, with expectations of growth driven by AI and computing power initiatives [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in integrated information and communication technology solutions, with a stable market share in the telecommunications equipment sector [7][11]. - The company is transitioning towards a "connectivity + computing power" model, capitalizing on the demand for AI infrastructure and services [11][60]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 71.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.51%, driven by significant growth in its government and enterprise business [7][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's closing price is 45.80 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 219.09 billion yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2023 to 2027 show a slight decline in 2024, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 14.16%, 13.11%, and 11.35% in subsequent years [6][63]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 8.38 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 26.14 [6][63]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main segments: operator networks, government and enterprise, and consumer business, with a focus on enhancing its AI capabilities across these areas [18][60]. - The operator network business remains a cash cow with a gross margin of 52.94%, while the government and enterprise segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue increase of 80% in 2025 [28][60]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing heavily in R&D, with a cumulative expenditure of 117.07 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, focusing on servers, switches, terminals, and chips [28][60]. - The introduction of self-developed chips, including the "Zhu Feng" series CPU and "Ding Hai" DPU, is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in AI and computing power [54][57]. Competitive Position - The company ranks fourth globally in the telecommunications equipment market, with a market share of 11% in 2023, indicating a solid competitive position [7][11]. - The report compares the company's valuation favorably against peers, with a 2025 PE average of 39.58 for comparable companies [8][64].

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced significant growth in its second curve revenue, particularly in computing power and terminal products, which have nearly doubled year-on-year and now account for over 35% of total revenue [3]. Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company's server and storage revenue has increased by over 200% year-on-year [3]. - AI server revenue constitutes 55% of the total server revenue [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Orders - The company has recently secured the top share in a collective procurement for AI general computing devices (inference type) [3]. - The company is actively expanding its order acquisition efforts [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company has developed self-research capabilities for switching chips, achieving a key chip forwarding capacity of 12.8T [3]. - The company aims to upgrade its key chip forwarding capacity from 12.8T to 51.2T [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The evolution of AI technology and its applications is expected to drive the construction of intelligent computing centers and increase business volume on the consumer side [3]. - This growth is anticipated to boost network construction and become a primary engine for ICT industry investment growth over the next 3-5 years [3]. - Cloud vendors are continuously investing in computing power, and the company's intelligent computing and terminal layout is expected to empower future growth [3].