Group 1 - The macroeconomic policy support and endogenous growth momentum in 2026 are expected to significantly strengthen compared to 2025, making economic recovery a high-probability event [1] - The export structure in 2025 shows a continuous increase in the proportion of high-end manufacturing-related electromechanical products, indicating a steady enhancement of China's manufacturing competitiveness, which lays a solid foundation for stable export performance in 2026 [1] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session reiterated the focus on "economic construction," and the policy dividends from the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to drive investment recovery, particularly in infrastructure and large projects [1] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, providing room for adjustments in China's monetary policy, which will support liquidity in the equity market [2] - The current market risk appetite is expected to remain neutral to warm, with reduced concerns about potential tariff and trade-related risks, as both the Chinese and U.S. governments express positive outlooks for economic performance in 2026 [2] - The stock market in 2025 relied more on valuation increases, while in 2026, improvements in macro fundamentals are expected to lead to substantial performance enhancements across various industries, particularly in cyclical sectors [2] Group 3 - Cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals are expected to benefit from economic recovery and supply-side improvements, presenting promising profit recovery opportunities [3] - The ongoing AI wave and the increasing demand for self-sufficiency remain core investment themes in the technology sector [3] - The difficulty of stock selection in 2026 may increase, necessitating in-depth research to seize stock picking and timing opportunities [3]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic policy support and endogenous growth momentum are expected to significantly strengthen by 2026, leading to a high probability of economic recovery [1] - Export resilience is anticipated, with a continued increase in the proportion of high-end manufacturing and machinery products in the export structure, bolstering stable export performance for 2026 [1] - Infrastructure and large projects are likely to become key investment focuses in 2026, supported by clear policy guidance and a recovering Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Group 2 - Liquidity in the equity market is expected to remain ample in 2026, providing support for market strength [2] - The current market risk appetite is neutral to slightly positive, with no significant risk points observed, and more industries are likely to see substantial performance improvements due to macroeconomic fundamentals [3] - Cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals are expected to benefit from economic recovery and "anti-involution" policies, presenting promising profit recovery opportunities [3]

拨云见日，掘金多瑙 —— 欧洲国 别研究专题系列 一 （一、宏观经济与地缘变化） 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 国别研究负责人 陈熙淼 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 院长助理 汪立亭 全球地缘格局和大国博弈背景下，中欧关系与经贸投资往来同步面临深刻挑战与机遇。本篇报告作 为国别研究之欧洲研究系列专题一，期望从经济、地缘、投资、金融等视角深度剖析和解读，如何 在当下多边主义时代看待欧洲投资机会，并为中国企业赴欧洲出海投资提供更多维度的分析视角。 欧洲经济形势，或已迈过近年低点。 2025 年一季度至今，欧洲地区工业生产活动已从低位逐步回 升，但消费信心仍低迷。 一季度受美国加征关税政策、德法国内政治局势变化、俄乌战争谈判再现 波折等影响，欧盟制造业产能利用率一度触及 2021 年以来的最低点，但进入二季度，包括特朗普关 税政策等在内各项因素缓和，欧洲产能利用率好转， 4 月制造业 PMI 逆势回升。就业方面，欧元区 劳动力市场表现稳定， 4 月失业率维持在 2000 年以来历史低位。通胀方面， 2025 年欧洲通胀率整 体可控，全年通胀有望回归 2% 目标，并为后续欧洲央行降息提供空间。对外贸易方面，一季度欧 ...