综合经济运行态势及各类支撑因素，笔者预计，2026年一季度国内经济增速有望稳步提升，呈现"消费 发力、生产稳健、金融托底"的运行特征，IMF已上调全球经济增速预测，为我国一季度经济回升提供 了乐观预期。一季度支持A股上行的主要逻辑在生产端，预计工业生产回暖态势延续。装备制造业、高 技术制造业将持续发挥支撑作用，规模以上工业增加值同比增速或保持在5%以上，延续稳健增长态 势。 需要注意的是，汽车行业可能对制造业形成拖累。由于从2026年起新能源汽车购置税减半，不少汽车消 费前置，导致1月电动车销量有所下滑。相关数据显示，1月1日—11日，国内乘用车新能源市场零售 11.7万辆，较上年同期下降38%，较上月同期下降67%，新能源零售渗透率跌至35.5%，较2025年12月的 59.1%几乎腰斩。此外，技术迭代加快使消费者观望情绪升温，头部车企计划下半年推出固态电池量产 车型，进一步抑制短期购车需求。不过，去年下半年新能源汽车板块整体表现偏弱，估值下修压力较 小。 笔者认为，由于前期指数持续上行，估值压力需要时间消化，一季度或难形成持续反弹格局。截至23 日，上证综指TTM市盈率为14.49倍，位于2010年以来9 ...

展望2026年，宏观经济运行的政策支撑力度与内生增长动力将较2025年显著增强，经济进一步回暖成为 大概率事件。在政策导向、内外需修复、流动性环境等多重积极因素共振下，资本市场有望迎来基本面 驱动的结构性行情，为投资布局提供关键窗口期。 从总需求维度看，出口有望保持较强韧性。一方面，2025年出口结构中高端制造相关机电类产品占比持 续提升，彰显中国制造在性价比与核心竞争力上的稳步增强，为2026年出口平稳运行筑牢基础；另一方 面，外部环境改善将推动海外经济回暖，进而拉动我国出口增长。投资领域，2026年基建及大型项目或 将成为发力重点。内需消费方面，政策支持导向明确，叠加CPI有望修复，双重积极因素将为消费复苏 提供支撑。 从总供给层面看，2026年产能利用率有望保持偏暖态势。受"反内卷"政策推进及行业周期影响，2025年 下半年部分周期行业已出现边际改善，随着政策持续发力与行业出清推进，年内PPI有望实现转正，为 经济增长注入动能。 2026年，受益于前述宏观基本面改善，更多行业有望实现业绩端实质性好转，结构性机会将进一步扩 散，其中周期类行业或迎来更为显著的变化。 具体来看，有色、化工等既受益于经济回暖， ...

从总需求维度看，出口有望保持较强韧性。一方面，2025年出口结构中高端制造相关机电类产品占比持 续提升，彰显中国制造在性价比与核心竞争力上的稳步增强，为2026年出口平稳运行筑牢基础；另一方 面，外部环境改善将推动海外经济回暖，进而拉动我国出口增长。投资领域，2026年基建及大型项目或 将成为发力重点。内需消费方面，政策支持导向明确，叠加CPI有望修复，双重积极因素将为消费复苏 提供支撑。 从总供给层面看，2026年产能利用率有望保持偏暖态势。受"反内卷"政策推进及行业周期影响，2025年 下半年部分周期行业已出现边际改善，随着政策持续发力与行业出清推进，年内PPI有望实现转正，为 经济增长注入动能。 新年投资展望：经济回暖下的结构性机遇 ◎农银汇理基金投资部副总经理 陈富权 展望2026年，宏观经济运行的政策支撑力度与内生增长动力将较2025年显著增强，经济进一步回暖成为 大概率事件。在政策导向、内外需修复、流动性环境等多重积极因素共振下，资本市场有望迎来基本面 驱动的结构性行情，为投资布局提供关键窗口期。 ■普惠金融·农银汇理基金投资视点 风险偏好方面，当前尚未观察到明显风险点，市场风险偏好有望维持中性偏 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of August, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.69 billion kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.0% [1] - Solar power generation capacity reached 1.12 billion kilowatts, with a significant year-on-year increase of 48.5%, while wind power capacity reached 580 million kilowatts, growing by 22.1% [1] - The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to August were 2,105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - In August, the total electricity consumption in China exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 1,015.4 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [1] - From January to August, the cumulative electricity consumption was 6,878.8 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - The electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector in August grew by 5.5%, marking the highest growth rate for the year, with notable recovery in industries such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [1] Group 3 - The high temperatures this summer, the highest since 1961, have led to a rapid increase in electricity consumption in the tertiary sector and among residents, with many regions experiencing record load levels [2] - Policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing industrial growth have contributed to a recovery in the macro economy, with continuous capacity release across various industries [2]

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1] - The electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for two consecutive months (July and August), setting a global record [1][2] - The growth in electricity consumption is attributed to high summer temperatures and supportive government policies aimed at economic recovery [2] Group 1: Electricity Consumption Trends - The total electricity consumption for the first eight months of the year reached 68,788 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [4] - The first industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption, with 1,012 billion kilowatt-hours consumed, reflecting a growth of 10.6% compared to the previous year [5] - The second industry's electricity consumption was 43,386 billion kilowatt-hours, with a modest growth of 3.1% [6] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech and equipment manufacturing, demonstrated resilience with a 9.1% increase in electricity consumption, surpassing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by approximately 4.6 percentage points [3] - The new energy vehicle manufacturing sector continued to show robust growth, with an electricity consumption increase of 23.0% from January to August [6] - The third industry also maintained a strong growth trajectory, with electricity consumption reaching 13,297 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [7]

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the second consecutive month, reaching 10154 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1] Industry Analysis - Electricity consumption by sector in August: - Primary industry: 164 billion kilowatt-hours, up 9.7% year-on-year - Secondary industry: 5981 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.0% year-on-year - Tertiary industry: 2046 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.2% year-on-year - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption: 1963 billion kilowatt-hours, up 2.4% year-on-year [1][1][1] - The increase in electricity consumption is attributed to high summer temperatures and a recovering macroeconomic environment, with significant growth in the tertiary sector and residential usage [1][1] - In the manufacturing sector, electricity consumption in August grew by 5.5%, marking the highest increase for the year [1] Cumulative Data - From January to August, total electricity consumption reached 68788 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% - Industrial power generation during the same period was 64193 billion kilowatt-hours [1][1]

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and surpassing the trillion-kilowatt-hour mark for the second consecutive month [1] Industry Analysis - The primary industry consumed 164 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [1] - The secondary industry accounted for 5,981 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1] - The tertiary industry saw electricity consumption of 2,046 billion kilowatt-hours, growing by 7.2% year-on-year [1] Economic Factors - The increase in electricity consumption is attributed to high temperatures and various government policies aimed at boosting consumption, contributing to a recovery in the macro economy [1] - National manufacturing electricity consumption grew by 5.5% year-on-year, the highest rate observed this year [1] - Key sectors such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals showed significant recovery, with a combined electricity consumption growth of 4.2%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from July [1] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing industries demonstrated strong resilience, with a combined electricity consumption growth of 9.1%, exceeding the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by approximately 4.6 percentage points, and all sub-sectors achieved positive growth [1] - The manufacturing of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries also maintained rapid growth in electricity consumption [1]

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the second consecutive month, reaching 10154 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1] Industry Analysis - Electricity consumption by sector in August: - Primary industry: 164 billion kilowatt-hours, up 9.7% year-on-year - Secondary industry: 5981 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.0% year-on-year - Tertiary industry: 2046 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.2% year-on-year - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption: 1963 billion kilowatt-hours, up 2.4% year-on-year [1][1][1] - The increase in electricity consumption is attributed to high summer temperatures and a recovering macroeconomic environment, with significant growth in the tertiary sector and residential usage [1][1] - In the manufacturing sector, electricity consumption in August grew by 5.5%, marking the highest monthly increase of the year [1][1] Cumulative Data - From January to August, total electricity consumption reached 68788 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% - Industrial power generation for the same period was 64193 billion kilowatt-hours [1][1]

Core Insights - In August, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and setting a historical record for the second consecutive month [1] - The high electricity consumption is attributed to extreme summer temperatures and government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing industrial growth [1] - The electricity consumption in the secondary industry was 5,981 billion kilowatt-hours, also showing a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, which is an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Industry Performance - In August, electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector grew by 5.5%, the highest monthly increase this year, with significant recovery in raw material industries such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, which collectively saw a 4.2% increase [2] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing industries demonstrated strong resilience, with a 9.1% increase in electricity consumption, surpassing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by approximately 4.6 percentage points [2] - All sub-sectors within high-tech manufacturing achieved positive growth, with rapid increases in electricity consumption in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic manufacturing sectors, indicating the emergence of new economic growth points [2] Year-to-Date Overview - From January to August, the total electricity consumption in China reached 68,788 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with industrial electricity generation accounting for 64,193 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - The first industry saw a significant year-on-year growth of 10.6% in electricity consumption, while the second industry grew by 3.1% and the third industry by 7.7% [2] - Notably, the electricity consumption in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector surged by 15.8%, driven by the rapid development of mobile internet, big data, and cloud computing, with the internet and related services experiencing a remarkable 28.8% increase [3]

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1][3] - The total electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for two consecutive months (July and August), setting a global record [1][3] - The growth in electricity consumption is attributed to high summer temperatures and supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing industrial growth [1][3] Electricity Consumption Data - In August, the electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector grew by 5.5%, the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1][3] - The total electricity consumption from January to August reached 68,788 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5] - The first industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a total of 1,012 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a growth rate of 10.6% [5][7] Sector Performance - The second industry had a total electricity consumption of 43,386 billion kilowatt-hours, but only a 3.1% year-on-year growth [5][8] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors demonstrated strong resilience, with a combined electricity consumption growth of 9.1%, surpassing the average manufacturing growth rate by approximately 4.6 percentage points [4] - The new energy vehicle manufacturing and photovoltaic industry also showed rapid growth, contributing to the overall increase in electricity consumption [4] Third Industry Growth - The third industry continued its rapid growth, with electricity consumption reaching 13,297 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [5][10] - The electricity consumption in the third industry has been a significant contributor to the overall growth in electricity demand [10]