宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标继续提示经济回暖 主要结论：高频指标继续提示经济回暖。 经济增长方面，本周(9 月 26 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续明显上升。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气继续上升， 消费领域景气变化不大，本周投资、房地产领域表现较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.43，表现明显强于历史平均水平，指向国内 经济增长动能继续回暖。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 10 月 3 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。预计 9 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 1.5%， 非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.3%，CPI 同比回升至-0.1%。 （2）9 月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格继续下跌且跌幅有所扩大，9 月中 旬延续下跌。预计 9 月 PPI 环比约为-0.1%，低基数背景下 PPI 同比或回升 至-2.4%。 ...

历史上白酒如何走出调整期 20250924 摘要 2008 年金融危机期间，中国经济放缓冲击高端白酒消费，国务院 4 万 亿刺激计划带动市场回暖，白酒指数显著上涨，基本面逐季改善，政策 催化是关键因素。 2012-2015 年白酒行业受"三公消费"限制影响，中高端政商务需求 大幅削减，行业进入下行通道。降息降准、地产政策松绑及棚改货币化 等措施推动经济复苏。 2018 年贸易战和去杠杆政策导致经济下行，但财政加码等支持性政策 及领导层表态，形成"政策底"，恢复市场信心，宏观调控措施迅速推 动行业回暖。 当前（2025 年）宏观环境与历史存在较大差异，不宜简单对比。二季 度报表端确认出清，渠道库存减少，可能接近底部，应关注宏观调控、 库存变化及企业基本面。 2019 年初信贷数据超预期，消费环境转暖，白酒行业开始上升，外资 流入是重要因素。在业绩未明显改善情况下，白酒指数大幅上涨，估值 贡献显著。 Q&A 白酒行业在过去 30 年经历了哪些主要的调整周期？这些周期的背景和主要影 响因素是什么？ 过去 30 年，白酒行业经历了四个主要的调整周期。第一个周期是 1999 年至 2003 年，受亚洲金融危机和通缩影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share trading volume, consistently exceeding 2 trillion, indicates a significant increase in market activity, raising questions about the potential impact on economic recovery if the stock market continues to rise [1] Group 1 - A-share trading volume has recently surpassed 2 trillion, reflecting heightened market activity [1] - The ongoing increase in stock prices may accelerate economic recovery [1] - The concept of "water buffalo" is mentioned as a metaphor for understanding its influence on the economy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that consumption is showing signs of recovery, while different sectors of the economy are experiencing varying trends. The weekly economic index has rebounded, with both production and demand sub - indices rising. However, there are also areas of decline, such as in real estate sales and some export price indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 6.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 7.9%, up 0.1 percentage points, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was - 2.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production last week was 25.1%, a 9.7 - percentage - point increase. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.3%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 73.1%, up 1.0 percentage point [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipment rate last week was 39.8%, down 0.3 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 37.9%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 30.7%, down 2.2 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities last week was - 14.3%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 13.0%, a 11.0 - percentage - point decline [1]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the daily average retail sales of passenger cars last week was 8.0%, a 12.0 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was 45.6%, up 18.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 1.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.0%, up 1.4 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Export - South Korea's export year - on - year in mid - August was 18.0%, a 22.3 - percentage - point increase from the first ten - day period. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) last week was - 54.4%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 17.6%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index last week was - 9.2%, a 2.0 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 23.3%, down 2.4 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 18.1%, down 2.6 percentage points [2]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index last week was 3.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 14.4%, down 0.2 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was 2.5%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 19.0%, up 2.1 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was - 10.1%, up 0.4 percentage points [3].

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the central bank shows that as of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%. The narrowing gap between M2 and M1 indicates an improvement in the liquidity of funds and the efficiency of circulation, reflecting effective market stabilization policies and a recovery in economic activities [3][4]. Group 1 - As of the end of July, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3] - M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [3] - The difference in growth rates between M2 and M1 is 3.2%, significantly narrowed compared to the high point in September of the previous year [3] Group 2 - The new statistical criteria for M1 were implemented in January, showing a comparable M1 growth rate of -3.3% as of September 2024 [3] - The narrowing M2-M1 gap reflects enhanced fund activation and improved circulation efficiency, aligning with the trend of economic recovery [4] - M1 primarily represents the operating funds of enterprises, with large enterprises focusing on fund efficiency, while small and medium-sized enterprises tend to retain more liquid funds due to weaker financing capabilities [4][5]

Group 1: Economic Recovery Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release major macroeconomic data for January-February, with multiple institutions predicting an economic rebound due to growth stabilization policies [1] - Industrial production is gradually recovering, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5.5% in industrial added value for January-February [1][2] - Fixed asset investment is expected to grow by 11% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing investment increasing by 24.5% and infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) rising by 7.0% [2] Group 2: Investment and Policy Impacts - The approval of fixed asset investment projects has accelerated significantly this year, with major projects starting earlier, supported by front-loaded fiscal measures [2] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February indicates strong manufacturing investment, driven by improved profitability in the previous year, robust exports, and continued credit support for the manufacturing sector [2] - The civil engineering PMI rose by 8.9 percentage points to 58.6%, indicating a continued recovery in infrastructure investment, with a projected cumulative growth rate of 7.5% for January-February [3]

Market Overview - The 3600-point level in the A-share market is a psychological barrier for investors, with mixed sentiments about whether it represents a danger or a starting point for growth [3][4] - Historical context shows that the A-share market has struggled at this level in the past, with significant fluctuations observed in 2021 and 2023 [3] Valuation Changes - Current valuations differ significantly from previous years; for instance, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for leading sectors like liquor and new energy has decreased, while sectors like AI and robotics have gained traction [3] - The P/E ratio for liquor has dropped to around 30 times, and for leading new energy battery companies, it is approximately 25 times, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [3] Fund Flow Analysis - Recent fund flows indicate a strategic shift, with northbound funds net buying 8.7 billion yuan, primarily in consumer electronics and medical devices, which are linked to economic recovery [4] - Institutional investors are reducing positions in high-valued AI stocks while increasing investments in undervalued sectors like traditional Chinese medicine and electrical equipment [4] Economic Indicators - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has returned to the expansion zone, and while overall industrial profits are declining, profits in the equipment manufacturing sector have increased by 7%, particularly in robotics and lithium battery segments [4] - The solar energy sector has seen a 23% increase in export volume, with many component manufacturers ramping up production in overseas factories, reflecting strong fundamentals [4] Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to focus on company fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of cash flow and stable dividends [5][6] - The current market environment suggests that investors should consider reducing positions in overvalued stocks while holding onto those with solid performance metrics [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in personal income tax (PIT) revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% from January to May, surpassing the overall tax revenue growth rate of -1.6% [1] - In May, the PIT growth accelerated to 12.3% compared to April, indicating a strong performance among major tax categories [1] - Analysts attribute the high growth in PIT to a combination of economic recovery, enhanced tax administration, wage adjustments, and dividend income [1][3] Group 2 - The marginal recovery in residents' income is a primary driver of the PIT increase, with urban residents' disposable income growing by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1, a 0.3 percentage point increase from Q4 of the previous year [3] - The active second-hand housing market in several cities has also contributed to the rise in PIT revenue [3][4] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax" Phase IV system has strengthened tax collection efforts, utilizing big data and artificial intelligence to monitor tax compliance [7][8] Group 3 - Wage adjustments and dividend income are significant factors influencing the PIT growth, with wages and dividends accounting for nearly 80% of PIT revenue [8] - The potential for continued high PIT growth in the second half of the year is supported by the expectation of further wage adjustments and stable dividend policies [8] - Despite potential economic uncertainties and a cooling real estate market, the likelihood of PIT experiencing negative growth remains low [10]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by businesses and individuals in the current economic climate, emphasizing the need for cost-cutting measures due to declining profits and increased difficulty in generating income [1]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sluggish real economy, resulting in layoffs and salary cuts for many companies [1]. - Business owners express that it has become increasingly difficult to secure orders, leading to thinner profit margins [1]. Group 2: Cost-Cutting Recommendations - The article suggests six items that should not be purchased to save money until the economy improves: - **Storage Boxes**: Excessive storage boxes are unnecessary; it is better to declutter and keep only essential items [3]. - **Cosmetics**: Hoarding cosmetics is wasteful; it is recommended to buy only what is needed and use it before purchasing more [4][6]. - **Clothing**: Many young people buy excessive new clothes; it is advised to keep a limited number of versatile outfits instead [8]. - **Personal Care Products**: Expensive shampoos and body washes are not necessary; affordable alternatives can provide similar quality [8]. - **Books**: Buying numerous books is impractical; borrowing from libraries or purchasing e-books is a more economical option [9]. - **Disposable Items**: Using reusable items instead of disposables can save money and reduce waste [11].