铜： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡回落，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国12月ISM服务业PMI54.4创一年多 最高，需求稳健，招聘回暖；美国12月ADP就业人数增长4.1万人，扭转前月下滑趋势。美近期公布的 经济和就业数据显示出自11月政府停摆以来的经济回暖信号，但对未来的指引仍然较弱。库存方面， LME库存下降2850吨至143225吨；Comex库存增加3256吨至464910吨；SHFE铜仓单增加3203吨至96474 吨，BC铜维持1053吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。昨 晚市场分歧加大，贵金属和有色板块开始出现降温，这也是近期部分品种再次出现过热现象后多头获利 了结的结果，笔者认为有序调整后有利于后续行情的发展，关注持续性。 镍&不锈钢： （朱希，从业资格号：F03109968；交易咨询资格号：Z0021609） 隔夜LME镍跌4.21%报17655美元/吨，沪镍跌1.44%报143280元/吨。库存方面，LME库存增加2 ...

策 略 研 究 策 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 04 日 看好恒科——产业经济周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 "十五五"开局之年，财政前置发力与流动性宽松有望形成 共振。 2、 地产预期改善，市场或对于经济延续回暖信心增强。 3、 外部仍需关注美元可能阶段性走强所指引的风险信号，随后 可能出现美元美债美股三杀。 4、 中国市场有望在海外风险释放过程中进行风格上的长期大切 换，同时伴随人民币持续大幅升值。 5、 短期科技成长有望成为核心进攻方向，建议关注恒生科技、 商业航天、机器人。 6、 长期看好保险，央国企红利，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军 贸。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、美股圣诞行情引领市场创新高——2025.12.29 2、住建会议定调 2026 房地产——2025.12.29 3、八连阳，躁动布局正当时——2025.12.28 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 ...

风险偏好方面，当前尚未观察到明显风险点，市场风险偏好有望维持中性偏暖。2025年关税冲突的压力 测试，充分展现了中国经济的韧性，市场对未来潜在关税及贸易相关风险的担忧大幅下降；中美两国政 府均对2026年经济表现持积极表态，财政货币政策将逐步发力，为基本面提供坚实支撑与稳定预期；若 2026年俄乌冲突实现实质性缓和，也对全球风险偏好形成正向提振。 农银汇理基金投资部副总经理 陈富权 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，宏观经济运行的政策支撑力度与内生增长动力将较2025年显著增 强，经济回暖成为大概率事件。在政策导向、内外需修复、流动性环境等多重积极因素共振下，资本市 场有望迎来基本面驱动的结构性行情，为投资布局提供关键窗口期。 从总需求维度看，出口有望保持较强韧性。一方面，2025年出口结构中高端制造相关机电类产品占比持 续提升，彰显中国制造在性价比与核心竞争力上的稳步增强，为2026年出口平稳运行筑牢基础；另一方 面，考虑到2026年美国宏观政策加码、俄乌冲突有望实质性缓和，外部环境改善将推动海外经济回暖， 进而拉动我国出口增长。投资领域，二十届四中全会再次重申"经济建设为中心"，叠加2026年"十五 ...

年末消费旺季 金价有支撑 近期黄金ETF呈现明显的上涨态势，市场资金对于黄金的配置热情仍然高涨。数据显示，仅12月22日一天就增持12.02吨，多只黄金ETF连续多日 放量增长。资金流入与金价上涨形成共振，凸显市场对黄金的配置需求。叠加年末圣诞、元旦及中国春节临近的黄金传统消费旺季，婚庆、送礼 等实物刚需的释放，进一步支撑黄金价格。 12月23日，美国商务部经济分析局发布了2025年第三季度美国实际GDP年率初值，数据显示为4.3%，较前值3.8%显著提升。个人消费支出对经济 增长贡献超过一半，同时政府投资也呈现回暖态势。数据公布后，黄金价格短线下跌约60美元，随后迅速反弹，维持高位震荡格局。 降息效果初现 经济逐步回暖 自2025年以来，美联储已累计降息75个基点，联邦利率降至3.5%-3.75%区间，相对宽松的货币政策对经济发展的积极作用逐步显现。从经济增长 传导路径分析，降息有效降低了融资成本，减轻了企业贷款利息负担，增强了其投资扩张意愿，尤其是科技创新领域的投资活力得到释放。同 时，利率的下调也降低了居民的抵押贷款和消费信贷的成本，带动国内消费市场需求回暖，个人消费支出稳步增长，有效提振了内需动力。在 ...

韩国央行在11月底的《经济展望更新报告》中将韩国2025年和2026年实际GDP增长预期分别上调至1% 和1.8%。 一年前，一场6小时的戒严令风波把韩国拖入危机。据央视新闻报道，当地时间12月3日上午，在韩国前 总统尹锡悦发动"紧急戒严"一周年之际，韩国总统李在明发表特别声明，表示将推动设立12月3日为"国 民主权日"。 李在明在讲话中表示，"紧急戒严"事件是一场"亲卫队政变"，出现在21世纪的韩国前所未有，但同样前 所未有地依靠韩国民众的力量以和平方式得到解决。李在明表示，戒严事件的追责并没有结束，相关人 员应得到严惩，韩国政府未来将会把韩国打造成一个更为繁荣、强大且充满人性温度的国家。 2024年12月3日，时任韩国总统尹锡悦以在野党裹挟国会、掣肘施政等原因深夜宣布进行"紧急戒严"， 遭韩国国会弹劾下台。韩国随后举行提前大选，在野党领袖李在明当选韩国总统。 "审判风暴"将来临 目前，处于风暴中心的尹锡悦和他的妻子金建希及其执政圈子数名核心成员都已被起诉或拘留。 今年8月被特别检察官起诉并拘留的前第一夫人金建希于3日接受了最终的审理。检方寻求对金建希判处 15年监禁和20亿韩元（约962万人民币）的罚款， ...

Core Insights - The significant increase in long-term loans for households in September, amounting to 250 billion yuan, indicates a notable recovery in the housing market after a prolonged period of stagnation [1][3][5] Policy Impact - The surge in loans is attributed to policy measures such as interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and adjustments in housing purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which have stimulated demand [3][5] - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans in September was approximately 3.1%, a decrease of 25 basis points compared to the same period last year, further encouraging borrowing [3][5] Market Dynamics - The overall financial data for September showed a clear trend of recovery, with total RMB loans increasing by 1.29 trillion yuan, more than doubling from August, indicating a broader resurgence in both household and corporate loan demand [5][10] - The increase in long-term loans for enterprises, which rose by 910 billion yuan in September, reflects a growing confidence in future investments [5][8] Seasonal Factors - Analysts note that the improvement in the housing market data for September may be influenced by seasonal factors, as this period typically sees increased sales activity, and the low base from the previous year also contributes to the apparent growth [7][8] Market Segmentation - The real estate market is experiencing a bifurcation, with first-tier and hot second-tier cities showing rapid activity, while many third- and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle with high inventory and insufficient demand [8][10] - The growth in housing loans is primarily concentrated in core cities with ongoing population inflow and industrial support, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8][10] Economic Indicators - The increase in the narrow money supply (M1) by 7.2% year-on-year in September suggests enhanced short-term transaction willingness among businesses and residents, aligning with the trends observed in housing and corporate loans [10]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B shows a significant increase, indicating continued economic recovery[1] - The seasonal comparison shows Index B standardized increased by 0.43, significantly above historical averages, suggesting ongoing domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment and real estate sectors are performing well, while consumer sector conditions remain relatively stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 1.5% month-on-month in September, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.3%[13] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year forecast recovery to -2.4% due to a low base effect[13] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 3, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of September 26, 2025, is 2.32%, while the actual yield is 1.88%, indicating a significant deviation[19]

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry has experienced several adjustment cycles over the past 30 years, influenced by various economic and policy factors [2][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Historical Adjustment Cycles**: - The industry faced four major adjustment periods: - 1999-2003 due to the Asian financial crisis and deflation - 2008-2009 due to the global financial crisis, with economic growth dropping from 14.2% in 2007 to single digits - 2012-2015 impacted by "Three Public Consumption" restrictions and the liquor plasticizer incident, leading to over 40% reduction in mid-to-high-end demand - 2018 faced challenges from trade wars and deleveraging policies [2][3] 2. **Recovery from the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis**: - The recovery was primarily driven by policy catalysts that stimulated economic growth, with a notable 100% increase in the white liquor index from November 2008 to August 2009 [3][4]. 3. **Comparison of Past and Current Conditions**: - The current macroeconomic environment in 2025 differs significantly from historical periods, making direct comparisons inappropriate. The second quarter of 2025 showed signs of inventory clearance and potential bottoming out [3][6]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: - The industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with expectations of reaching a bottom by the end of 2025. Investors are advised to monitor macroeconomic policies, inventory changes, and improvements in company fundamentals [3][11]. 5. **Impact of External Factors**: - The 2018 trade war and deleveraging led to economic pressures, but timely fiscal policies restored market confidence, leading to a new bull market starting in 2019 [5][6]. 6. **Performance in Early 2019**: - In early 2019, credit data exceeded expectations, and the consumption environment improved, contributing to a significant rise in the white liquor index, which nearly doubled despite no substantial improvement in earnings [7][8]. 7. **Cyclical Characteristics**: - The white liquor industry is characterized as a cyclical sector, with recoveries dependent on overall economic conditions. Historical policy shifts often signal upcoming economic turning points [9][10]. 8. **Stock Price and Earnings Relationship**: - Stock price recoveries typically precede earnings recoveries, suggesting that investors should focus on macroeconomic indicators rather than waiting for actual sales data to make investment decisions [10]. 9. **Current Market Sentiment**: - The industry is currently in a phase of both report and channel inventory reduction, with potential buying opportunities emerging. However, the overall sales situation remains weak, necessitating close monitoring of key sales periods such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and the 2026 Spring Festival [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share trading volume, consistently exceeding 2 trillion, indicates a significant increase in market activity, raising questions about the potential impact on economic recovery if the stock market continues to rise [1] Group 1 - A-share trading volume has recently surpassed 2 trillion, reflecting heightened market activity [1] - The ongoing increase in stock prices may accelerate economic recovery [1] - The concept of "water buffalo" is mentioned as a metaphor for understanding its influence on the economy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that consumption is showing signs of recovery, while different sectors of the economy are experiencing varying trends. The weekly economic index has rebounded, with both production and demand sub - indices rising. However, there are also areas of decline, such as in real estate sales and some export price indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 6.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 7.9%, up 0.1 percentage points, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was - 2.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production last week was 25.1%, a 9.7 - percentage - point increase. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.3%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 73.1%, up 1.0 percentage point [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipment rate last week was 39.8%, down 0.3 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 37.9%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 30.7%, down 2.2 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities last week was - 14.3%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 13.0%, a 11.0 - percentage - point decline [1]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the daily average retail sales of passenger cars last week was 8.0%, a 12.0 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was 45.6%, up 18.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 1.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.0%, up 1.4 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Export - South Korea's export year - on - year in mid - August was 18.0%, a 22.3 - percentage - point increase from the first ten - day period. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) last week was - 54.4%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 17.6%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index last week was - 9.2%, a 2.0 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 23.3%, down 2.4 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 18.1%, down 2.6 percentage points [2]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index last week was 3.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 14.4%, down 0.2 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was 2.5%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 19.0%, up 2.1 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was - 10.1%, up 0.4 percentage points [3].