证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 8 月 26 日 消费有所回暖——经济热力图 【周度经济指数】周度经济指数回升。上周中国周度经济指数（WEI）为 6.9%， 较前值回升 0.1 个百分点。其中 WEI 生产子指数为 7.9%，较前值回升 0.1 个百 分点；WEI 需求子指数为 5.7%，较前值回升 0.2 个百分点；供需缺口为-2.2%， 较前值回升 0.1 个百分点。 【生产】生产有所回升。上周螺纹钢产量 4 周移动平均同比为 25.1%，较前值 回升 9.7 个百分点。高炉开工率为 83.3%，较前值回落 0.3 个百分点。汽车半钢 胎开工率为 73.1%，较前值回升 1.0 个百分点。 【基建】基建高频指标回落。上周水泥发运率为 39.8%，较前值回落 0.3 个百 分点。水泥磨机运转率为 37.9%，较前值回升 0.3 个百分点。石油沥青装置开工 率为 30.7%，较前值回落 2.2 个百分点。 【房地产】商品房销售增速回落。上周 30 大中城市商品房销售面积 4 周移动平 均同比为-14.3%，较前值回落 1.9 个百分点。100 大中城市成交土地占地面积 4 周移动平均同比为-13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the central bank shows that as of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%. The narrowing gap between M2 and M1 indicates an improvement in the liquidity of funds and the efficiency of circulation, reflecting effective market stabilization policies and a recovery in economic activities [3][4]. Group 1 - As of the end of July, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3] - M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [3] - The difference in growth rates between M2 and M1 is 3.2%, significantly narrowed compared to the high point in September of the previous year [3] Group 2 - The new statistical criteria for M1 were implemented in January, showing a comparable M1 growth rate of -3.3% as of September 2024 [3] - The narrowing M2-M1 gap reflects enhanced fund activation and improved circulation efficiency, aligning with the trend of economic recovery [4] - M1 primarily represents the operating funds of enterprises, with large enterprises focusing on fund efficiency, while small and medium-sized enterprises tend to retain more liquid funds due to weaker financing capabilities [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in personal income tax (PIT) revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% from January to May, surpassing the overall tax revenue growth rate of -1.6% [1] - In May, the PIT growth accelerated to 12.3% compared to April, indicating a strong performance among major tax categories [1] - Analysts attribute the high growth in PIT to a combination of economic recovery, enhanced tax administration, wage adjustments, and dividend income [1][3] Group 2 - The marginal recovery in residents' income is a primary driver of the PIT increase, with urban residents' disposable income growing by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1, a 0.3 percentage point increase from Q4 of the previous year [3] - The active second-hand housing market in several cities has also contributed to the rise in PIT revenue [3][4] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax" Phase IV system has strengthened tax collection efforts, utilizing big data and artificial intelligence to monitor tax compliance [7][8] Group 3 - Wage adjustments and dividend income are significant factors influencing the PIT growth, with wages and dividends accounting for nearly 80% of PIT revenue [8] - The potential for continued high PIT growth in the second half of the year is supported by the expectation of further wage adjustments and stable dividend policies [8] - Despite potential economic uncertainties and a cooling real estate market, the likelihood of PIT experiencing negative growth remains low [10]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by businesses and individuals in the current economic climate, emphasizing the need for cost-cutting measures due to declining profits and increased difficulty in generating income [1]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sluggish real economy, resulting in layoffs and salary cuts for many companies [1]. - Business owners express that it has become increasingly difficult to secure orders, leading to thinner profit margins [1]. Group 2: Cost-Cutting Recommendations - The article suggests six items that should not be purchased to save money until the economy improves: - **Storage Boxes**: Excessive storage boxes are unnecessary; it is better to declutter and keep only essential items [3]. - **Cosmetics**: Hoarding cosmetics is wasteful; it is recommended to buy only what is needed and use it before purchasing more [4][6]. - **Clothing**: Many young people buy excessive new clothes; it is advised to keep a limited number of versatile outfits instead [8]. - **Personal Care Products**: Expensive shampoos and body washes are not necessary; affordable alternatives can provide similar quality [8]. - **Books**: Buying numerous books is impractical; borrowing from libraries or purchasing e-books is a more economical option [9]. - **Disposable Items**: Using reusable items instead of disposables can save money and reduce waste [11].