2025 年 05 月 13 日 业绩短期承压，期待新品反馈 —承德露露（000848.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 4 月 23 日，承德露露发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一 季报。 投资要点 ▌Q1 业绩表现承压，成本利好逐步显现 业绩符合预期，春节错期影响致 Q1 业绩承压。2024 年总营 收 / 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 32.87/6.66 亿元，分别同比 +11%/+4%；其中，2024Q4 分别为 11.28/2.47 亿元，分别同 比+23%/+27%。2025Q1 分别为 10.02/2.15 亿元，分别同比- 18%/-13%。Q1 毛利率提升受益于杏仁成本下降，市场投入加 大致费用率提升。2024 年毛利率/净利率分别为 41%/20%，分 别同比 -0.5/-1.3pcts ， 销 售 / 管 理 费 用 率 分 别 同 比 +1.1/+0.6pcts。2025Q1 毛利率/净利率分别为 48%/22%，分 别同比 +4.4/+1.4pcts ， 销 售 / 管 理 费 用 率 分 别 同 比 +2.1/+0.5pcts。经营净现金流表现稳健 ...

承德露露 000848.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 杏仁露稳健增长，24 年圆满收官 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报及 25 年一季报，对 25、26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.69、0.75、0.79 元（原预测 25-26 年为 0.75、0.86 元）。结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025年的 17倍市盈率， 对应目标价为 11.73 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 原材料价格波动、新品放量不及预期、市场开拓不及预期、产能利用率不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,955 | 3,287 | 3,362 | 3,567 | 3,750 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 844 | 880 | 960 | 1,041 | 1,0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.287 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million, up 4.41% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.128 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.69%, while the net profit was 247 million, increasing by 26.95% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.002 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.36%, and the net profit was 215 million, down 12.53% year-on-year [1] - Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, the combined revenue for Q4 and Q1 was 2.13 billion, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [2] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from almond milk, nut walnut, and almond milk series was 3.19 billion, 80 million, and 10 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11%, -2%, and +249% [2] - The sales volume of almond milk reached 330,000 tons, with a volume increase of 11.5% and stable price per ton [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from the northern, central, and other regions was 2.99 billion, 190 million, and 110 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12%, 9%, and 3% [2] - The northern region saw a strengthening of its market position, with a net increase of 56 distributors [2] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 20.3% [4] - The gross profit margin was stable, decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 40.9% [4] - The increase in almond procurement costs due to weather conditions in 2023 led to a rise of over 30% in prices from Q4 2023, but prices dropped by over 30% starting Q4 2024 due to significant production increases [4] Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points due to investments in e-commerce operations, new market development, and new product launches [5] - The management expense ratio rose by 0.6 percentage points due to increased share-based payment expenses [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new herbal health drink products, leveraging the resource advantages of its "southward expansion" strategy [6] - The main business is expected to stabilize, with continued cost benefits from almonds anticipated in the first half of 2025 [6] - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5%, 6%, and 4% respectively, with net profit growth of 7%, 8%, and 6% [6]