Core Viewpoint - Vitasoy International reported a revenue of HKD 3.227 billion for the six months ending September 30, a 6% year-on-year decrease, while profit attributable to equity holders slightly increased by 1% to HKD 172 million, indicating a complex situation of declining revenue but stable profits due to cost control measures [1][2][8] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue decline of HKD 2.16 billion, or 6%, was primarily driven by weakness in the core market, particularly in mainland China, which saw a revenue drop of 9.19% to HKD 1.778 billion [2][8] - Profit growth of 1% was achieved through a 7% reduction in total operating expenses to HKD 1.441 billion, with significant cuts in administrative expenses by 15% and marketing and distribution costs by 2% [2][8] Market Performance - The mainland market, contributing 55% of total revenue and 63.07% of net profit, faced a dual decline in revenue and profit, with net profit down 12.45% to HKD 192 million [2][8] - Other markets showed mixed results: Hong Kong and Macau revenue fell by 4% to HKD 1.112 billion, while Australia and New Zealand saw a 5% increase in revenue, although they still reported losses [3][9] Challenges in the Mainland Market - The primary issue in the mainland market is the inadequate response to channel transformation, as consumer preferences shift from traditional retail to e-commerce and new retail formats, leading to a 9.19% revenue decline [4][10] - Vitasoy's reliance on traditional channels has hindered its ability to adapt quickly to market changes, resulting in a significant impact on its performance [10][11] Competitive Landscape - The growth of core product categories, such as plant-based milk and tea, has slowed, exacerbating revenue pressures amid increasing competition from major players like Mengniu and Yili in the soy milk sector [5][11] - Vitasoy has adopted a "price reduction + innovation" strategy to maintain market share, which has led to lower product prices and increased promotional spending, ultimately affecting gross margins [5][11] Regional Challenges - The Hong Kong business faced challenges due to a sluggish recovery in the Macau retail market and tariff pressures on exports to the U.S., resulting in a 4% revenue decline [6][12] - While there are positive signs in overseas markets, such as a 5% revenue increase in Australia and New Zealand, these markets have not yet provided substantial support to offset declines in the mainland market [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - Vitasoy International (00345.HK) reported a revenue of HKD 3.227 billion for the fiscal year 2025/2026, representing a 6% year-on-year decline, while net profit attributable to shareholders slightly increased by 1% to HKD 172 million due to cost-cutting measures [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue from mainland China decreased by 9.19% to HKD 1.778 billion, and net profit fell by 12.45% to HKD 192 million, accounting for approximately 55% of total revenue and 63.07% of net profit [1] - Revenue from Hong Kong (including Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR, and exports) was HKD 1.112 billion, down 4% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 15.35% to HKD 135 million [2] - Total operating expenses decreased by 7% to HKD 1.441 billion, with marketing, sales, and distribution expenses down by 2% to HKD 976 million [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The slowdown in revenue from the mainland market is attributed to a deceleration in the growth of plant-based milk and tea products, with consumers shifting from traditional retail channels to various online platforms [1] - The company is focusing on low-sugar and no-sugar product innovations and accelerating channel optimization processes [2] Group 3: Management and Stock Performance - The mainland business has seen two leadership changes, while the 84-year-old second-generation family leader, Lo Yau Lee, has not yet retired [2] - As of the report date, Vitasoy's stock price was HKD 6.47 per share, with a market capitalization of HKD 6.752 billion, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 35% year-to-date [2]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's research report indicates that Vitasoy International's revenue in the mainland market for the third quarter has decreased by 9% year-on-year, with the plant-based milk category down by 10% and tea products up by 5%, showing a slowdown from double-digit growth in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue in the mainland market decreased by 9% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - Plant-based milk category revenue fell by 10% [1] - Tea category revenue increased by 5%, but growth has slowed compared to last year's double-digit figures [1] - Revenue in the Hong Kong market declined by 4% [1] Group 2: Management Insights and Future Plans - Management has observed a slight improvement in mainland market performance compared to the first half of the fiscal year [1] - The company plans to continue driving growth in the Hong Kong market [1] - There are plans to accelerate expansion into emerging channels such as online and snack chain stores [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Target Price - Macquarie has lowered Vitasoy's net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 16.3% and 13.3%, respectively [1] - The target price has been reduced from HKD 10 to HKD 7.4 [1] - The rating remains "Outperform" [1]

维他奶国际(00345)跌近3%，触及6.48港元创去年10月下旬以来新低。截至发稿，跌2.84%，报6.49港 元，成交额1682.26万港元。 消息面上，维他奶国际昨日公布截至2025年9月30日止6个月中期业绩，收入32.27亿港元，同比减少 6%；毛利16.48亿港元，同比减少7%；公司股权持有人应占溢利1.72亿港元，同比增长1%。收入减少 6%主要由于中国内地业务受市况疲弱影响，表现面临挑战。 公告指出，在中国内地市场，植物奶及茶类产品类别增速正在放缓，消费者现由传统零售渠道转向多种 线上平台，包括社交平台及即时电商平台，以及会员制商店与连锁零食店。由于占公司业务显著份额的 传统零售渠道正在放缓，但在公司正在努力拓展规模的电商平台及连锁零食店渠道的增长未能完全抵销 上述影响，整体收入减少9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vitasoy International (00345) reported a decline in revenue and gross profit for the six months ending September 30, 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions in mainland China, leading to a nearly 3% drop in stock price, reaching a new low since October last year [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was HKD 3.227 billion, a decrease of 6% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit amounted to HKD 1.648 billion, down 7% compared to the previous year [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders was HKD 172 million, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The decline in revenue is attributed to the slowdown in the plant-based milk and tea product categories in mainland China, with consumers shifting from traditional retail channels to various online platforms, including social media and instant e-commerce platforms [1] - The traditional retail channels, which represent a significant portion of the company's business, are experiencing a slowdown, while growth in e-commerce platforms and chain snack stores has not fully offset this impact, resulting in an overall revenue decrease of 9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vitasoy International Holdings Limited reported a 6% decrease in revenue for the interim period ending September 30, 2025, primarily due to challenges in the mainland China market, while maintaining a gross margin of 51.1% and an operating profit margin of 7.6% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company recorded a profit attributable to equity holders of HKD 172 million [1] - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.04 per ordinary share, unchanged from the previous interim period [1] - The operating profit margin for the mainland China business was maintained at 11% due to cost optimization measures [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The mainland China business faced revenue decline due to shrinking traditional retail channel sales, although this was partially offset by robust growth in the omnichannel approach [1][2] - In Hong Kong, the beverage business continued to strengthen its leadership position in the non-alcoholic beverage market, despite challenges in the Vitasoy Tian Di business and export to the U.S. [2] - The Australian and New Zealand markets saw a 5% sales growth in local currency, with improved profitability and a significant reduction in operating losses to HKD 22 million [3] Group 3: Product Innovation and Strategy - The company focused on enhancing commercial execution and product innovation, leading to increased market share for Vitasoy's soy and plant-based milk products [1] - New product launches, such as Vitasoy's low-sugar white peach soy milk and lemon tea, contributed to market share growth in the ready-to-drink tea category [1][2] - In the Philippines, the plant-based category has been growing steadily at a double-digit rate, driven by oat and almond products [3]

Core Insights - Oatly, the world's largest oat drink company, achieved profitable growth in Q3 2025, reigniting interest in the long-dormant plant milk market [1] - The plant milk market has seen a significant decline in investment and consumer interest since 2022, with a notable drop in market share and retail presence [4][6] Market Trends - The plant milk market experienced explosive growth from 2020 to 2021, with a market growth rate of 800% and a 900% increase in buyers [3] - However, investment activities in the plant milk sector have sharply decreased, with only 4 financing cases in 2022 and just 1 in 2023 [4] - The market share of plant milk in the packaged beverage sector fell from 13.72% in Q1 2023 to 5.38% in Q3 2025 [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly concerned about health and are shifting their preferences towards products that offer emotional value and functional benefits [2][13] - Over half of consumers perceive the price of oat milk as too high, with 58.9% indicating that the cost is a barrier to purchase [10] - The current consumption scenarios for plant milk largely overlap with those of traditional dairy, lacking distinct consumer demand [11] Company Performance - Oatly reported a revenue of $115 million in the Greater China market in 2024, a 7.8% decline year-on-year, but saw a 28.8% increase to $37.4 million in Q3 2025 [7] - Despite revenue growth, Oatly has struggled with profitability, only achieving its first profitable quarter in Q3 2024 [7] - Other domestic plant milk companies, such as Yangyuan and Chengde Lululemon, have also reported declines in plant milk sales, indicating a broader trend in the industry [8] Industry Challenges - The decline in the plant milk market is attributed to multiple factors, including taste acceptance, pricing, competition, and supply chain issues [9][12] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with traditional dairy brands entering the plant milk space, further squeezing profit margins [9][12] - The industry is undergoing a rationalization process, moving towards healthier and more sustainable growth rather than speculative expansion [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - Beyond Meat, known as the "first plant-based meat stock," reported a 14.73% decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with net losses widening, prompting a strategic shift to expand beyond plant-based meat products and seek new growth models [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Beyond Meat achieved a total revenue of $214 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.37%, and a net loss of $193 million, compared to a net loss of $115 million in the same period last year [1][2]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was $70.22 million, down 13.32% year-on-year, with a net loss of $111 million, significantly larger than the $26.58 million loss in the same quarter last year [1][2]. Sales Decline Factors - The revenue decline is attributed to a 10.3% decrease in product sales and a 3.5% drop in average selling price, influenced by reduced distribution points in U.S. retail channels and decreased sales to fast-food clients in international food service [2]. - Non-operating factors, including non-cash impairment charges related to certain long-term assets, contributed to the widening net loss [2]. Market Challenges - The current demand weakness for plant-based meat is believed to stem from the products' inability to meet mainstream market needs, as indicated by the product lifecycle theory, suggesting that plant-based meat remains in a niche market without a solid consumer base [2]. - Significant gaps in taste, price, and nutritional composition compared to real meat, along with stable or declining prices for traditional meat, further compress the market space for plant-based alternatives [2]. Strategic Shift - To address the current challenges, Beyond Meat is implementing a transformation plan, shifting focus from meat imitation to traditional plant proteins, and gradually phasing out the "Meat" label [4]. - This strategic pivot is seen as rational, aligning with health food trends and leveraging existing supply chains to enhance gross margins, while also exploring new product forms like ready-to-eat protein bars and plant-based milk [4].

Core Insights - The plant-based milk market, once a rapidly growing consumer category, is experiencing a decline due to increased competition and heightened price sensitivity among consumers [1] - Sales in the U.S. alternative milk sector fell by 4.4% last year, reaching $2.9 billion, marking the first decline in four years, with no recovery expected by 2025 [1] - Traditional dairy products are seeing faster growth compared to plant-based alternatives, with various types of milk, including lactose-free and whole milk, outpacing oat, almond, coconut, and soy substitutes [1] Company Insights - Oatly's stock has significantly dropped since its IPO in 2021, falling from a peak of $58 to the low teens [2] - Beyond Meat has also seen a drastic decline in its stock price, from nearly $240 to below $1 [2] - The market trend is shifting towards high-protein and gut health products, prompting mergers and acquisitions, such as PepsiCo's acquisition of Poppi and Danone's attempt to acquire Lifeway Foods, although the latter deal ultimately failed [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.384 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 15.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 258 million yuan, down 11.97% year-on-year [7] - The early Chinese New Year in 2025 and overall weak consumer sentiment have led to continued revenue pressure, although new water series products have begun to contribute [7] - The company has increased its marketing expenses, with sales expenses for the first half of the year reaching 281 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [7] - Cash flow remains strong, with cash received from sales in Q2 amounting to 432 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.38% [7] - The company plans to repurchase at least 30 million shares, with 3 million shares repurchased by July 31, 2025, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [7] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted downward for 2025 due to the "small year" phenomenon, with expected revenues of 2.921 billion yuan and net profits of 604 million yuan [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.955 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 638.13 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.02% [1] - The company expects a decline in revenue for 2025, with a forecast of 2.921 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.14% year-on-year [1] Market Position - The company's market capitalization is approximately 9.115 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.33 [4] - The stock price has fluctuated between 6.73 yuan and 11.31 yuan over the past year [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a return to growth in 2026, benefiting from a favorable Chinese New Year timing [7] - New product contributions are expected to increase, with ongoing monitoring of market performance [7]