证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 11 日 [Table_Title] Fed 降息+重启购债，鹰派担忧消散 12 月 11 日，美联储降息 25bp，至 3.5-3.75%。资产表现方面，黄金、美股上涨，美债收益率下行。点阵 图显示 2026 年仅降息 25bp。数据预测显示，对 26 年的通胀担忧降温，同时对增长更为乐观。 第一，美联储降息符合预期。对比会议 FOMC 声明与 10 月声明的差别，主要是对劳动力市场措辞发生微 调，从 10 月声明的"失业率略有上升，不过截至 8 月仍维持在低位"，调整为"失业率截至 9 月底略有上升"。 "在考虑对联邦基金利率的目标区间进行额外调整时"加上了幅度和时机（the extent and timing of），为后续会 议可能暂停降息做好准备。共三人反对降息 25bp，芝加哥联储 Goolsbee 和堪萨斯城联储 Schmid 反对降息，米 兰支持降息 50bp。其中 Schmid 和米兰的表态与 10 月会议相似，仅 Goolsbee 为新加入反对降息。整体反对声 音比此前市场预期的小（此前多位联储官员表态降息要谨慎 ...

Group 1 - Canada will implement tariff exemptions on many U.S. goods under the USMCA agreement [1] - The Canadian dollar depreciated over 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 1.3838 [1] - The Canadian stock index maintained a gain of approximately 1%, stabilizing near the historical high of 28,340.87 points following Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] Group 2 - The yield on Canadian 10-year government bonds rebounded, nearly recovering losses incurred after Powell's dovish remarks [1] - The two-year Canadian bond yield remained over a 4 basis point decline, trading around 2.69%, having briefly dipped below 2.67% post-speech [1] - U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 840 points (1.87%), S&P 500 up 1.55%, and Nasdaq up 400 points (1.9%) [1]