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今年以来,哪些品种达到过高估?|第409期直播回放
银行螺丝钉· 2025-10-10 13:55
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 一、【第409期直播回放】 有朋友问,市场风格轮动快,这轮行情中,哪些品种领涨? 哪些品种到过高估? 如果没到高估,基金还有收益吗? 在今晚的直播课里,螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码,添加 @课程小助手 微信,回复「 1010 」即可观看直播回放。 (提示:回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦~) 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 这轮行情,和2013-2017年比较相似 2013年,A股基本面比较低迷,上市公司盈利下降。 同时利率也比较高,压制了市场表现。 A股在2012-2014年,断断续续的出现了较长时间的5点几星。 2014年,为了刺激经济,开启了大幅降息。 较低估值、加上资金面宽松,让A股开始迅速上涨。 (1)2014年下半年,先是证券大幅上涨,拉开牛市序幕。 (2)2015年上半年,小盘股、成长风格接力,大幅上涨,并在2015年6月达到泡沫估值。 随后小盘、成长风格泡沫破裂,出现腰斩下跌。 (3)2016-2017年,随着基本面复苏,大盘价值股、消费股出现上涨。 到2017年底,大盘价值、消费超过2015年最高位,创下当时的历史新高。 这轮行情跟2013 ...
[9月12日]指数估值数据(今年哪些品种到过高估;自动止盈功能上线;港股指数估值表更新;抽奖福利)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-09-12 13:51
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, highlighting the rotation of market styles and identifying sectors that have reached overvaluation, while also emphasizing the importance of earnings growth as a fundamental driver of long-term investment returns [7][15][18]. Market Performance - The overall market experienced a slight decline, closing at 4.2 stars, with large-cap stocks down and small-cap stocks slightly up [1][2]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong showed strength, with gains exceeding 1.5% [4][5]. - The A-share market has seen significant style rotation, with certain sectors experiencing rapid increases in valuation [7][15]. Overvalued Sectors - Several sectors have reached overvaluation this year: - **Banking Index**: Experienced a significant rise in 2022-2024 during a bear market, peaking in July before correcting to a normal high valuation [9][10][11]. - **Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Index**: After a sharp decline in April, it rebounded with substantial earnings growth, leading to a double-up trend before correcting to a normal high valuation [12][13]. - **Military Industry**: Saw a rise due to military exercises in September, reaching high valuation before experiencing a correction [14]. - **Chip Sector and Sci-Tech 50**: Benefited from a booming chip industry, reaching high valuations in late August before a slight pullback [14]. - **North Certificate 50**: This small-cap index also reached high valuation after significant gains in August [14]. Market Dynamics - The A-share bull market is characterized by style rotation rather than broad-based rallies, with leading sectors often reaching overvaluation first [15]. - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market resembles the 2013-2017 period, where specific sectors led the market and subsequently faced corrections [15][18]. Earnings Growth and Investment Strategy - Long-term investment returns are primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation increases [15][18]. - The article emphasizes that even in bear markets, indices can rise significantly over time, independent of high valuations [15][18]. Valuation Insights - A summary of various indices' valuations is provided, indicating which sectors are undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued, aiding investors in making informed decisions [22][29][31].
加拿大将取消多种针对美国产品的报复性关税,加元涨幅扩大,加拿大股市持稳于历史最高附近
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 15:07
Group 1 - Canada will implement tariff exemptions on many U.S. goods under the USMCA agreement [1] - The Canadian dollar depreciated over 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 1.3838 [1] - The Canadian stock index maintained a gain of approximately 1%, stabilizing near the historical high of 28,340.87 points following Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] Group 2 - The yield on Canadian 10-year government bonds rebounded, nearly recovering losses incurred after Powell's dovish remarks [1] - The two-year Canadian bond yield remained over a 4 basis point decline, trading around 2.69%, having briefly dipped below 2.67% post-speech [1] - U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 840 points (1.87%), S&P 500 up 1.55%, and Nasdaq up 400 points (1.9%) [1]
美联储发布利率决议声明前,美元指数涨0.56%,暂报99.439点。美国10年期国债收益率涨幅收窄至不足2.8个基点,报4.3481%;两年期美债收益率涨1.6个基点,回落至3.89%下方。现货黄金跌0.76%,暂报3301美元。标普500指数涨0.23%,道指大致持平,纳指涨0.43%,生物科技指数涨1%,费城半导体指数涨1.2%,银行指数涨0.5%,罗素2000指数涨0.9%。
news flash· 2025-07-30 17:59
Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.56%, currently at 99.439 points before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond narrowed to less than 2.8 basis points, reported at 4.3481%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.6 basis points, falling below 3.89% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by 0.76%, currently at $3301 [2] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.23%, the Dow Jones remained roughly flat, the Nasdaq increased by 0.43%, the biotechnology index rose by 1%, the Philadelphia semiconductor index increased by 1.2%, the banking index rose by 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.9% [2]
【笔记20250620— 传……】
债券笔记· 2025-06-20 14:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a focus on the recent movements in interest rates and the implications for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 161.2 billion, with 202.5 billion maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 41.3 billion [1]. - The funding rates have decreased, with DR001 stabilizing around 1.37% and DR007 dropping to approximately 1.49% [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.6405% and fluctuated, reaching a low of 1.6365% before slightly recovering to 1.638% [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The June LPR remained unchanged, aligning with expectations, while the June EPMI showed weakness at 47.9, a decrease of 3.1 from the previous month [2][3]. - The bond market sentiment was stable, with a notable shift in trading behavior as investors moved away from active 10-year bonds to older bonds and longer maturities [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There has been a recent "battle of narratives" between bulls and bears in the market, with bulls gaining an upper hand due to rumors of the central bank's bond purchases at the end of the month [4]. - The trading volume for the 10-year government bond was low, with less than 600 transactions throughout the day, indicating a shift in investor focus [3].
美联储5月决议声明发布前,美元指数涨0.37%,欧元兑美元跌0.31%,英镑兑美元跌0.33%,纽元兑美元跌0.64%,美元兑日元涨0.73%。标普500指数涨幅不足0.3%,道指涨290点涨幅0.7%,纳指跌23点跌幅0.13%,半导体指数涨0.2%,银行指数涨0.98%。谷歌A跌8.9%,苹果跌1.73%,特斯拉涨0.17%。美国10年期国债收益率跌3.5个基点,报4.283%;两年期美债收益率涨幅不足0.8个基点,逼近日低3.7868%。现货黄金跌1.2%,报3388美元,COMEX黄金期货(电子交易
news flash· 2025-05-07 17:54
美联储5月决议声明发布前,美元指数涨0.37%,欧元兑美元跌0.31%,英镑兑美元跌0.33%,纽元兑美 元跌0.64%,美元兑日元涨0.73%。 标普500指数涨幅不足0.3%,道指涨290点涨幅0.7%,纳指跌23点跌幅0.13%,半导体指数涨0.2%,银行 指数涨0.98%。 谷歌A跌8.9%,苹果跌1.73%,特斯拉涨0.17%。 美国10年期国债收益率跌3.5个基点,报4.283%;两年期美债收益率涨幅不足0.8个基点,逼近日低 3.7868%。 现货黄金跌1.2%,报3388美元,COMEX黄金期货(电子交易盘)跌0.77%,报3397美元。 ...