Core Insights - The national cotton planting area in China is projected to reach 45.803 million acres in 2025, an increase of 2.707 million acres or 6.3% year-on-year [1][4] Regional Analysis - The northwest inland cotton planting area is expected to be 41.225 million acres, with a year-on-year increase of 3.093 million acres or 8.1%. Xinjiang's cotton planting area is projected at 41.02 million acres, up by 3.103 million acres or 8.2% [1][4] - The inland cotton planting area is expected to decrease to 4.453 million acres, a reduction of 368,000 acres or 7.6% year-on-year. The Yellow River basin's cotton planting area is projected at 2.691 million acres, down by 215,000 acres or 7.4% [2][4] - The Yangtze River basin's cotton planting area is expected to be 1.762 million acres, a decrease of 153,000 acres or 8.0% year-on-year [2][4] Factors Influencing Cotton Planting Area - The stability of cotton planting income in Xinjiang, supported by government price subsidy policies, has encouraged farmers to increase cotton cultivation. The current subsidy policy is in its final year, maintaining strong motivation for cotton expansion [3] - In contrast, the inland cotton planting area continues to decline, with various provinces experiencing significant reductions. For instance, Henan's planting area decreased by 34.0%, while other provinces like Tianjin and Hebei saw reductions of 13.4% and 11.6%, respectively [2][4] - Adverse weather conditions, such as continuous rainfall during the planting season in the Yangtze River region, have negatively impacted mechanized sowing, contributing to the decrease in planting area [3]

棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美农数据压制预期，棉价短线承压 ...